Thursday, March 3, 2016

Repeat of Last Oct Surge? 3-3-16

ES/SPX held up and closed above yesterday's high. ES parked right on its 200 SMA before tomorrow's NFP report. RUT gained 1% today closed below 200 SMA. It's playing catch up now. VIX fall down to 16.7. Market is waiting for NPR to see what's its next move. It can be interpreted any way they wanted by both side. It looks like bulls are on the stronger side.

The surge of last weeks remind people of last Oct's big reversal. We are into 4th positive week since the double bottom of early Feb. There were six weeks of consecutive gains last Oct. I am threatened on the bear call side. Got three RUT calls ITM after today's move. I started to roll my ITM positions didn't realize the RUT changed its weeklies to Friday. My memory is getting bad. I searched RUT expiration date last week but didn't remember it this week. I shouldn't have rolled over my 1070 put yesterday and paid a little premiums for it. It's ITM today.

Risk factors dropped quite bite. I am not sure if IB changed its calculation in margin in March. My available funds was reduced to a half from near 100K to 50K yesterday. I didn't sell any calls yesterday or today. I will have to call IB to ask about it. Now my IB margin ratio is at 25% vs 46% on Monday. I will try to reduce more call positions tomorrow.  

One lesson: It's hard to roll over a position and collect additional premiums once it's deep ITM. I will actively roll out a positions when it's near or at the money.

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