Sunday, August 4, 2019

The Big Reversal 8-2-19

The major event of the week was that the Fed cut the interest rate for the first time in a decade. It was supposedly a very positive signal for the market although the decision was partially pressured by political force. But the Fed chairman's less dovish comments about the decision disappointed the market. The street has a bunch of crying babies. The market sold off on that day. Then, the recovery rally on the next day was interrupted by the additional 10% tariffs to China announcement. That announcement during the market session spooked the market and reversed. It followed with another day of selling on Friday. It appeared that the recent record highs were the tops. The correction is in progress. How deep the correction could be is anybody's guess. So far the market is still in the uptrend. SPX held its 50 DMA and RUT is still above its 200 DMA. But the RSI is not in oversold condition yet.

I was over-optimistic before the FOMC announcement. I knew it was risky after the new highs. I was hoping to quickly unload some of my long puts on the FOMC event so I could reduce my longs. I rolled up some of my lower strikes. They worked only to the July 26 week. The correct way should be to reduce risk before any major event. I was still too emotional. I forgot that hope is not a strategy.

My net liq is down to 140K after another 5K to ET. It suffered about 8K in the week. Leverage is up to 4. Delta is too high on the positive side. August could be a dangers month, like 2015. I need to be proactive and quick.     

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