Friday, July 16, 2021

Is The Current Rally Over? 7-16-21

 The majors booked their 1st losing week of the last 4 weeks except for RUT which has had its 3rd losing week in the last 4. No wonder the small-cap is a leading indicator. Just not sure when the others would follow its lead. Despite the down week for the three majors, they still maintained the uptrend daily and weekly so far. The earnings season has had good results but couldn't provide support for the market. It appears the buy the rumor sell the news is in play. I will try to stay objective to see how deep the pullback will go. 

My net liq took a hit this week. It closed down to 118K from 134K last week, a 16K drawdown. The leverage is up to 353 from 296. The realized loss is 13.6K with damages in rolling both sizes of ITM positions. I have been greedy collecting premiums from IF 0 DTE. It turned out to be losses. I haven't unwinded Wednesday's LP, then I added another one today. It cost 3.7K to collect 1K. I was thinking not to trade IF today. I was fooled by the gap up open this morning. I let my discipline slipped. 

ST and my other trades didn't produce many returns either. Usually, it's those markets turning points that wipes out weeks' gains. I planned to reduce my positions for weeks in preparing for such a turning point. I missed it at the last minute due to undisciplined action. I must change my thought process and stay in the course. I need to make my subconscious into clear analyses and decisive action. I have paid enough tuition to not make better trades. 


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