Bulls Are Back? 9-24-21

 It was a volatile week after the previous two down weeks. SPX gapped down on Monday and closed below its 50 DMA. The price action and sentiment were bearish after another red day on Tuesday. Technically it went below August 18's low and formed a lower low. On the weekly chart, SPX  touched its Fib 78.6% from the July 19 low. One of the indicators would work in hindsight. LoL. RUT was in a similar pattern but it was below the200 SMA on Monday. FOMC on Wednesday was the changing point.  I thought the pullback was showing the FED not to be too aggressive in tapering. The majors staged a turnaround after the FOMC meeting. They all closed up for the week. However, the majors are not quite out of the wood yet. SPX is about 50 SMA but still below 20 SMA, same as the Qs. Their down trends are not broken yet. RUT is in a better shape which closed above all three MAs. Longer-term the majors are still in the uptrend. We shall see what happens next week. It may get another pullback test. Seasonally, the end of Sept to early Oct has a down thrust.  

My net liq ended at 148K. It's net up 3K exclude a net 5K from ET. The leverage is 267. The premiums collected are minimal after rolling the RUT 1790C and bought a couple of directional calls. The realized gain is -3056 reflecting some ITM LP rolls early in the week. 2-3X stops are necessary because it's not worth spending thousands to save a small amount of premium. The risk exposure is too big to carry in case of a large pullback. My small accounts did well for the week. The 0 DTE and IF were all winners for the week. ST and other directional play didn't produce much for the week. 

I still need to work on my price levels which my entries should be based on. Patience is a long-standing shortcoming of mine. Setting up the price levels and daily ranges may help me to be more patient and looking at bigger pictures. I need to work on my thought of defending the 0 DTE strategy. It's turning a credit spread into a BF or BWB if the position is threatened.   

Down Weekly - September Effects? 9-17-21

 I missed my journal for September 10th due to June's wedding in DC. It was a down week. This week the SPX, NQ, and YM  ended down again. Only the small-cap is up but in between its 20 and 50 DMA. The futures dropped further after the regular hour today. ES is below its 50 DMA and current uptrend line. The weird quad-witch price actions. SPX is a one-time frame down and back in the August pre-B/O range. The volatile September effect is in play. 

My netliq is at 140K up about 4K from last Friday. The leverage is at 282, lower than last week's 305. The realized P/L is -$1493. I only collected $420 in IB partially because I was out on Monday. The small accounts collected about $1.1K. There is about 70% of it from 0 DTE. The rest of them is from MU and AMZN directional trades. 

I followed my -1+1 rule this week. I was down so much last week and had to roll one SPX LC to late October due to the mistake. With this Sep-Oct possible correction, my long puts are venerable due to the large spreads, all three of them have between 1330 to 850X spreads. I need to find ways to reduce the spread. 

Grinding Up Into Sept 9-3-21

 The majors continue to grind higher. The new pattern of after selling has met with dip buyers. The August NFP report was much worst than expected 720K v.s 235K actual. It appeared the market wasn't scared by the results. I guess the poor numbers implied that Fed may not taper the QE any time soon. SPX made another new high of 4545, NQ hit 15699. RUT booked 2nd positive week, heading to 2300+. 

My net liq ended at $141665 after sending 5K back to ET. It is up 8K from last week. The realized P/L is $6427 with net premiums of $225 after the $1500 cost of rolling the SPX SC. The leverage is 279. The market has been up for 7 months without a 5% pullback. I have been lucky to play alone on the long side and have recovered over $100K so far. I feel that many traders are complacent again. It's likely that we will see a 5-10% pullback this fall. Controlling the size is still the key to my risk control. 

My personal accounts have done well for the week. I only traded the ET account this week. It realized $825 without much risk. The 0 DTE IF  and credit spreads worked in this slowing market. The directional trades didn't do well for me. I am still refining my setup. 

I have improved my discipline in controlling the sizes. I was able to control the urge to add or roll my positions. I missed a couple of good trades by Shadow Trade. I had to skip a couple of them due to the large margin requirement. I may sign up for another service after June's wedding by the mid of September.