Saturday, September 25, 2021

Bulls Are Back? 9-24-21

 It was a volatile week after the previous two down weeks. SPX gapped down on Monday and closed below its 50 DMA. The price action and sentiment were bearish after another red day on Tuesday. Technically it went below August 18's low and formed a lower low. On the weekly chart, SPX  touched its Fib 78.6% from the July 19 low. One of the indicators would work in hindsight. LoL. RUT was in a similar pattern but it was below the200 SMA on Monday. FOMC on Wednesday was the changing point.  I thought the pullback was showing the FED not to be too aggressive in tapering. The majors staged a turnaround after the FOMC meeting. They all closed up for the week. However, the majors are not quite out of the wood yet. SPX is about 50 SMA but still below 20 SMA, same as the Qs. Their down trends are not broken yet. RUT is in a better shape which closed above all three MAs. Longer-term the majors are still in the uptrend. We shall see what happens next week. It may get another pullback test. Seasonally, the end of Sept to early Oct has a down thrust.  

My net liq ended at 148K. It's net up 3K exclude a net 5K from ET. The leverage is 267. The premiums collected are minimal after rolling the RUT 1790C and bought a couple of directional calls. The realized gain is -3056 reflecting some ITM LP rolls early in the week. 2-3X stops are necessary because it's not worth spending thousands to save a small amount of premium. The risk exposure is too big to carry in case of a large pullback. My small accounts did well for the week. The 0 DTE and IF were all winners for the week. ST and other directional play didn't produce much for the week. 

I still need to work on my price levels which my entries should be based on. Patience is a long-standing shortcoming of mine. Setting up the price levels and daily ranges may help me to be more patient and looking at bigger pictures. I need to work on my thought of defending the 0 DTE strategy. It's turning a credit spread into a BF or BWB if the position is threatened.   

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