Bulls Are Still In Control 10-29-21

 All the three majors made new ATHs again this week, especially today after AAPL and AMZN reported lower than expected earnings and fall sharply after hour, the majors opened lower. Bulls not only closed the gaps but also pushed new highs by the afternoon. They all closed at new highs except the small-cap. It was a big surprise the majors made new highs when two out of four most valuable companies were down more than 2% each. SPX reached the century figure of 4600. I don't know how the market will react when Fed announces its tapering program next Wednesday. Are they setting up a pump and dump event? 

My IB netliq closed at 155,339 after sending another 10K to ETQ. Net-net about 2K increase from last week. The leverage is 263. The realized P/L for the week is -18,368, for the month is only 4320. The collected cash is only $1680. Rolling the 2 deep ITM short calls really hurt the numbers, plus the 3.8K losses of MRNA trades. I need to be more aggressive after FOMC's dust settled. 

The personal accounts performed steadily.  I only traded the ET account. It collected $1061 for this week, $5211 for the month. It's less than the average of the last two months. One of the reasons may be the Fidelity account transfer so I didn't trade it. I used buying back, rolling up to defend my threatened positions. It worked in mildly volatile market conditions. 

There are only two months left for this year. I must keep what's working and carefully protect what I have achieved. There has not been a 10% pullback this year so far. I am not sure if this is an exceptional year. 

  

All Time Highs for SPX, DJ 10-22-21

 What a change of mood! DJ and SPX hit record highs this week. SPX gained over 100 points in 5 days. RUT is near breaking out its current range above 2310. NQ is forming an inversed head and shoulder in the daily chart. SPX left 4 gaps below in this rally. It's usually but not unthinkable. SPX and DJ struggle to maintain at the top. Both of them formed a Doji candle today. The next couple of trading days will tell if this rally has steam. 

IB netliq closed at 163K and the leverage is down to 230. Both are in the best level for two years. The realized P/L is $6.5K. The collected premiums barely covered the big loss of MRNA. I will continue to operate carefully to not mess up the result. The personal accounts realized $950 for the week. The 0 DTE is still the bread and butter of my income for the week. I started to use more ways to defend my positions once if they are threatened. My directional trades didn't do well. AMZN and FB long CS both lost completely on the overnight tech drop. 

I followed the -1+1 rule for the week. I was able to recognize my urge to adjust my positions. I started to look at the time of the day to gauge my trade timing. I will continue to practice my directional trade but with caution. I noticed when I am confident about my entries it often turned out to be a loser. I need to stay objective and prepare for either outcome. 

Turnaround Wednesday 10-15-21

 The bulls took over after Fed Minute was released on Wednesday. The bears had the chance to push SPX below 4300. Now that SPX, NQ broke out of their downtrends in both weekly and daily charts. Only RUT is still in that muddy wedge. VIX is below 17. It looks like the downtrend from September is reversed. The seasonal pattern is in agreement with the trend now. 

My netliq is at 160K, up 15K from last week before I send 5K back to ETQ. The leverage is down to 240, the first time closed below 250 this year. The realized profit is $6022. The premiums collected are $2367 with the IF unwinded. But the overall cash collection is still -  $690 for the month. The damage of MRNA is too big. Another long call of it went to worthless from $840. The small accounts performed well after recovering from the IF of last week. It realized $5480 for the week. It's still not worth the risk to trade IF without stop. I transferred my Fidelity trade account to TD due to some technical issues with FI.

I traded twice IF in IB today which wasn't in my trade plan. It should not be allowed despite both are winners. I still don't have the habit of placing a stop order right after the order was filled. Be a pro, not a gambler. 

The Volatility Continues 10-8-21

 The market continued to be volatile this week but closed in small positive territories except for the small-cap. SPX and NQ are back right above their 20 weekly SMA while RUT is still in its current wedge. The market rallied after the US debt ceiling resolution. SPX broke its current daily downtrend but NQ hasn't. Seasonally the current downturn may be ending soon. The earnings season is starting next week. 

IB netliq closed at $145K, up 9K from last week. The leverage is 263. The options gross value is at -231K, down 9K. There appears a correlation between the netliq and the options gross value. The realized P/L is $15404, mainly from the SPX SC rolling during the p/b and the recovery on the pop. If the market resumes the uptrend I need to be more aggressive in reducing my SCs. 

The small accounts suffered a setback as I made an undisciplined IF 0 DTE trade on Wednesday. I was overconfident after SPX being choppy till noon. I knew there was a debit ceiling negotiation but wanted to take a chance. I told myself not to trade IF in the morning. Then I got frustrated when I missed the put spreads several times. I failed to stop again. Now I am spending over 20K of BP to save the original 2K position. it's a 10:1 RR. Not worth it. The realized P/L is -4165 despite 1920 cash collected. I had a mixed result in my directional trades. ST cost some losses while I missed some small gains from his alert. Some of them required too high of BP for me. My NVDA CS generated 75% returns which offset part of ST losses. 

I have to use the R/R math to enforce the stop-loss practices. Yes, I can use my Operation Twist to get out most of my losing positions. But one big shock could get me into an unrecoverable situation. It only takes two more trades to recover a 3x stop loss. It could take me 2-4 weeks to get out of a non-stop loss with a much bigger B/P. It's simple math. The problem is in my Psychological process. I can't take and admit a loss. This has to change.  

A Volatile Week and The 2nd Down Month of 2021 10-1-21

 September was a volatile and down month, the first negative month after 7 consecutive up months. SPX was down 4.8%. There were 3 of 4 negative weeks in September. The 3rd week was a head fake. RUT had a down month as well but it didn't break its weekly and monthly range. It has been in the ranges of 2100 to 2350 for 7 months but holding a bull flag after March's new ATH of 2360. The first half of Oct could be still volatile if the seasonal plays out. 

The IB netliq ended at 136K for the week, down 11.5K from last week. The leverage closed at 289, up 22 points for the same period. The realized gain is $8.7K due to rolling the two ITM calls during the downturn. My long side was hit hard which forced me to roll far out in date. The premium was -$340 due to SPXC rolling and an MRNA long call. The 0 DTE continued performing well. The small accounts realized $2253 for the week and $6608 for the month. I still have problems placing stop orders. I took too much risk in the volatile environment. It's not worth taking hundreds of dollars risk for a small gain. My rolling has worked so far. But it will hurt once if the market rally or fall hard. 

Risk control is still my weakest link. I got hit hard today with the MRNA BWB puts. It gapped down 12% on Merk's Covid pile news. All of my put legs were ITM. I miss calculated the long puts spreads yesterday. I should have added two of the long put to make it 1x2x1, instead, I only added one to make it 1x3x2. I was trying to spend about $120 less. The rare event that happened to me on bad news before the market opened. I didn't think through all of my options. Could I have rolled or break the option legs? I took a full max loss of $2800. This is a hard lesson. It will take me weeks to recover from it.