Saturday, October 9, 2021

The Volatility Continues 10-8-21

 The market continued to be volatile this week but closed in small positive territories except for the small-cap. SPX and NQ are back right above their 20 weekly SMA while RUT is still in its current wedge. The market rallied after the US debt ceiling resolution. SPX broke its current daily downtrend but NQ hasn't. Seasonally the current downturn may be ending soon. The earnings season is starting next week. 

IB netliq closed at $145K, up 9K from last week. The leverage is 263. The options gross value is at -231K, down 9K. There appears a correlation between the netliq and the options gross value. The realized P/L is $15404, mainly from the SPX SC rolling during the p/b and the recovery on the pop. If the market resumes the uptrend I need to be more aggressive in reducing my SCs. 

The small accounts suffered a setback as I made an undisciplined IF 0 DTE trade on Wednesday. I was overconfident after SPX being choppy till noon. I knew there was a debit ceiling negotiation but wanted to take a chance. I told myself not to trade IF in the morning. Then I got frustrated when I missed the put spreads several times. I failed to stop again. Now I am spending over 20K of BP to save the original 2K position. it's a 10:1 RR. Not worth it. The realized P/L is -4165 despite 1920 cash collected. I had a mixed result in my directional trades. ST cost some losses while I missed some small gains from his alert. Some of them required too high of BP for me. My NVDA CS generated 75% returns which offset part of ST losses. 

I have to use the R/R math to enforce the stop-loss practices. Yes, I can use my Operation Twist to get out most of my losing positions. But one big shock could get me into an unrecoverable situation. It only takes two more trades to recover a 3x stop loss. It could take me 2-4 weeks to get out of a non-stop loss with a much bigger B/P. It's simple math. The problem is in my Psychological process. I can't take and admit a loss. This has to change.  

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