Changing Trend? 2-24-23

 The major indices closed in the red for another week. It's the worst week for SPX so far in 2023. The sentiment is not panic yet. There are still buyers buying the dips. SPX is testing the 200 DMA and 20 WMA. We are getting into March Madness seasonally. Be prepared to see more volatility near term. 

The IBQ Netliq is down 5% from 236K to 225K for this 4-work day week. The realized P/L is -$15.7K v.s. $96K last week. This pullback hurt my SPs. I was able to reduce the SPs from 9 to 7. The leverage is up 6% from 163 to 174. VIX is still in the 20 -22 range. The premiums collected are $3200. Most of it is from BF hedges. I skipped one of the days based on the -1+1 rule. I like the steady income increase. 

I almost unwinded the ITM positions from mid-January. I applied the BF 5X hedges with the two small accounts. The rule is also -1+1. I also paid the $20K back to BOA from TOS. TOS collected $2K mainly from the BF trades this week. IBP collected $1.8K using the same BF strategy. Things are improving. 

Lessons Learned: 

1. The butterfly expansion strategy (BF 5X) works in current market conditions. I will keep trading it until it stops working. It's one more tool in my trading toolbox. 

2. My daily meditation continues to improve my state of mind. I added a new app called Balance to learn more about meditation. 

3. Pay more attention to being patient. The patience is bitter, but the fruit is sweet.  

4. The cash buildup has helped my netliq and B/P dramatically. 

The 2nd Week Of Pause 2-17-23

The major indices closed slightly down for the 2nd week. They have shown strong resilience after the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI. They finally gave in to a FED governor's hawkish speech on Thursday. The uptrend is still intact despite the pullback. MACDs are turning negative. I will watch if the retreat continues next week. 

The IB Netliq is up 13.6% from 204K to 236K. The leverage is down 19% from 203 to 163. The VIX stayed in the 20 to 21 range. The market has been calm so far this year against the seasonality. The realized P/L is $96K as some long-term ITM positions have been rolled out. It's the best weekly P/L I have remembered. The premium collected is $2,829, less than last week's $5.3K. I have followed the rule of -1+1. 

The personal accounts got further relief from the pullback. I was able to close 2 of the SC positions in TOS. I have rolled all of the SC positions up closer to the money. TOS collected $910 with the roll-ups. IBP added $720 for the week. I plan to trade the BF 5X hedge strategy with the two small accounts once these ITM positions are unwinded. It should allow me to book 1-3K per week for each account. I have to follow the rule of -1+1. 

Lessons Learned:

1. I need to learn to calculate the delta values when I plan to roll a position. I currently guess the values based on my experience. 

2. The daily meditation has really helped me to stay calm and clear mind. 

3. I followed my rules of -1+1 better than last week. 

4. I am more patient in waiting for the desired time frame to enter my trade.  I get my hands on other things to ease my anxieties while waiting for the opportunities. 

A Week Of Pause Or Trend Change 2-10-23

 The major indices closed down for this week. They are mostly inside last week's range. It could be a pause after the incredible January rally. They are above all of their key MAs. The market is waiting for more inflation data after the last FOMC rate hike. The expectation is that the worst inflation period is over. This week's pullback provided some relief for my underwater positions. 

The IB Netliq is up from 207K to 224K, a 7.5% increase. I paid 20K back to ETQ this week. The realized P/L is - $6366 with some rolling out positions. The collected premiums are $5,317. I assume the increased cash position helps the netliq and B/P. The leverage is down about 5%, from 212 to 203. VIX stayed around 20. The market and my netliq remained rangebound. I was able to reduce 2 SPX SCs and 1 RUT SP. 

The personal accounts got some relief in the last two days. I had to transfer 20K to TOS from BOA at the beginning of the week. The BP was down to 19K at that time. I should be able to transfer it back in 1-2 weeks. IBP collected $600, and TOS got $1017. It was a lot of effort to get the $1.6K. My undisciplined action continues dragging me in the mud. 

Lessons learned:

1. Practicing meditation daily helps me stay calm and collected most of the time.  

2. I followed my -1+1 rule sometime and failed a couple of times. Obey the rule may not benefit me all the time. It keeps me in line and out of trouble. 

3. Recognize my emotions during the day. Don't take impulsive trade when my emotions are high. Take a break before taking action.   

   

The Rally Continues After FOMC Rate Hike 2-3-23

 FOMC announced another rate hike of 0.25% on Wednesday. It's the smallest increase in this rate cycle. There was no surprise to the market. The market popped after the initial dip. The FOMC reaction usually is a market reversal the next day. It didn't happen this time. The major indices continued the rally the following day. AAPL, AMZN, and Google reported disappointing earnings after the market on Thursday. The NFP on Friday morning was much higher than expected. The new hirings were 517K v.s. 193K estimated. It's an inflationary factor. The market didn't react very negatively. There was only a 1% pullback for SPX at the end of the day. The bulls are still in control for now. 

The IB Netliq is down 9% from 226K to 206.7K for the first 3 days in Feb. The leverage is up 9% from 189 to 212. VIX is still below 20. The collected cash is $4K for the same period. The realized P/L is -$52.8K. The losses include about 30K for rolling some old positions. It's a poorly managed week during the strong rally. I wasn't quick enough to adjust my positions after FOMC. I was afraid of a sudden reversal as many times before. 

The two personal accounts slipped deeper into the water during this week's rally. I was too cautious to adjust these underwater SCs. My concern was the B/P and FOMC. The TOS is down -$355, and IBP is up $63 for this 3-day account week. The lost time opportunities and B/P are much bigger than the $ amount. I had to transfer $20K from BOA to TOS to shoe up its B/P. My weakness repeatedly cost me dearly. I will put myself on time-out once I am out of these positions. It may take two or more weeks. 

Lessons Learned:

They are the same bad habits that take time to correct. I will keep working on them until they are corrected. 

1. Be patient and stay calm;

2. Follow the rules, especially the -1+1 rule. 

3. Keep practicing meditation. It helps me to stay calm and conscious. 

4. One of my goals is to exit all of my deep ITM positions before the end of the year.