Saturday, February 4, 2023

The Rally Continues After FOMC Rate Hike 2-3-23

 FOMC announced another rate hike of 0.25% on Wednesday. It's the smallest increase in this rate cycle. There was no surprise to the market. The market popped after the initial dip. The FOMC reaction usually is a market reversal the next day. It didn't happen this time. The major indices continued the rally the following day. AAPL, AMZN, and Google reported disappointing earnings after the market on Thursday. The NFP on Friday morning was much higher than expected. The new hirings were 517K v.s. 193K estimated. It's an inflationary factor. The market didn't react very negatively. There was only a 1% pullback for SPX at the end of the day. The bulls are still in control for now. 

The IB Netliq is down 9% from 226K to 206.7K for the first 3 days in Feb. The leverage is up 9% from 189 to 212. VIX is still below 20. The collected cash is $4K for the same period. The realized P/L is -$52.8K. The losses include about 30K for rolling some old positions. It's a poorly managed week during the strong rally. I wasn't quick enough to adjust my positions after FOMC. I was afraid of a sudden reversal as many times before. 

The two personal accounts slipped deeper into the water during this week's rally. I was too cautious to adjust these underwater SCs. My concern was the B/P and FOMC. The TOS is down -$355, and IBP is up $63 for this 3-day account week. The lost time opportunities and B/P are much bigger than the $ amount. I had to transfer $20K from BOA to TOS to shoe up its B/P. My weakness repeatedly cost me dearly. I will put myself on time-out once I am out of these positions. It may take two or more weeks. 

Lessons Learned:

They are the same bad habits that take time to correct. I will keep working on them until they are corrected. 

1. Be patient and stay calm;

2. Follow the rules, especially the -1+1 rule. 

3. Keep practicing meditation. It helps me to stay calm and conscious. 

4. One of my goals is to exit all of my deep ITM positions before the end of the year. 


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