Pop Champion!!! 12-31-13

I didn't expect it as a trending day. After a small sell off at noon buyers stepped in pushing market to a new high at end of the day. I guess wall street was popping champions to celebrate the great year of 2013. 

I was able to get a position in on the small pull back for week 2 of Jan. But I didn't exit my 1855 call short and added one more to it. This last minute of change plan may cost me more if the market gap up after new year's day. I lowered my entry from 325 to 275 instead of stay disciplined. 

I need to add Fib levels to my commodity option selling. It will give me a bigger picture view. I was too early in my CL and Soybean entries in the last few days without waiting for a better levels. 

It has been a great turn around year for my trading career. I will do an review this weekend and layout plan for next year. 

Waiting 12-30-13

A very slow day as the new year is approaching. ES had only 4.5 point range. People are waiting for the new year. Last two years had gap up and go right after new years day and never looked back. Will 2014 repeat it? Either way the up trend is still in tack.

I had two ES Jan-3 scalps filled before closing. I entered a CL/LO put sale as the trend turned up and had a pb today. It's 9.5% away but 54 days long. Anything could happen during this time and be ready to exit out.

Nothing New 12-27-13

Every day is a new high for the last five sessions. I guess market is just holding up and waiting for the new year to start. I don't have any order filled. I don't want to force to trade either. I don't have to trade when conditions are not right. Although I do feel anxiety and no accomplishment. But that is part of the business.

Santa's Gift 12-26-13

ES made a new high again the day after Christmas. Although it was a small range day but there was no pull rotation down either. Bulls are fully in control now. The real battle may have to wait after New Year.

I didn't have anything for ES today. I keyed in exit orders for all of my 6 month end positions. If they get filled tomorrow I could save few days margin interest and more fund to trade.

New High before Santa 12-24-13

It's only a half trading day before Christmas. ES set another new high of 1828.50. There was not even a three point rotation down. I didn't have any trade today. I am just waiting for time decay on my existing positions. I only have 6 cars each for this week and end of the month due to the waiting for Fed meeting last Wednesday. It was a right thing to do not to fully loaded before the Fed announcement.

Winding Down 12-23-13

Market continues trending up today but the ranges and volumes are down. ES reached my two measured Fib 23% target today and still hanging up there. Next target is at 1830-32, but tomorrow is only a half trading day before Christmas.

I didn't have any new position today. I tried CL, ES Jan-10 and ZB put sell but no fill. Get be patience. ZB had a big $5 surge at 3am for no news or obvious reason. It shows how volatile this baby can be.

I am learning credit spread and iron condor now. Hope to add to my system next year.

GDP Matters Now 12-20-13

The final GDP for last quarter adjusted to 4.2% instead previous 3.8% annual rate. Market gaped up. The theme has changed. It used to be good news of GDP and jobless rate are bad for the market. Because they were afraid of tapering. Now the tapering is here. Market has to stand on the real economic growth instead of Fed now.

It's chaching Friday again. I had my best week so far.

Take a Breather 12-19-13

Market took a breath today. ES was a inside day and had only 9 point range. Both overnight high and low were intact. Tomorrow is quadruple witching option expirations which should provide some volatility.

I didn't have any new position today. I will try to get in some by tomorrow to take advantage of slowing holiday and market closing decays. Of course, safety first.

Ben Did It Skillfully 12-18-13

The most anticipated Fed announcement came out with a tapering of $10 billion and Fed emphasizing on keeping the low rate for a long time. Market initially dropped 50SMA and rallied up. ES closed at a new high of 1810 for Dec contract. I didn't expect a taper before Christmas but my hypothesis of drop and pop worked out with agony at initial drop.

My 1750 put sell was exited during the volatile move. All of my put sell positions are in good shape now. I went into a call sell of 1835 way too early and without checking the chart again. I got carried away during the heated time. My plan was stay out of the movement and let the dust settle first. I will manage my risk in the next two days.

It looks like Santa's rally finally come. I will sell some of my mid/long term positions for tax purposes in the next two weeks.

Clear Deck & Wait 12-17-13

As expected the pros are clearing deck and waiting for the Fed. Market was down but only in a 8 point range. ES parked in CLVA. It's ready to move either way tomorrow. All eyes are on Fed tomorrow. It will reset market's mood and direction.

I legged in a Jan 3 put for 100 point out just in case it pops tomorrow and take advantage of holiday decays. I made a mistake again by moving closing price of 1750 this week. It missed by 10c and I still have this bad habit of move price the last min.

Going No Where 12-13-13

It's the fourth down day now. ES had the same pattern as yesterday: attempts of pushing higher were nocked on head. It got sold off at closing again. The day for ES was unchanged. It looks like that at least Fib 61.8% of 1766 area is in play. If that's the case then I have to exit out my 1750 position.

I exited out my 1765 scalp for this week overnight with a small profit. I have all winners this week with full or partial profit. Of course the goal is not been 100% but manage my risk. In this regard I didn't do very well this week. I was not very patience last week and early this week when market was very slow. I kind forced in couple positions, such as 1765 for this week and 1750, 1740 for next week. Get to keep in mind that market goes circles, volatility goes from compression to expansion.

Next week is FOMC week. I am fully loaded and need to manage my risk.

Overnight Reversal 12-16-13

Sunday night US market had a flash sell after Asia opened. ES worked to Fib 61.8 and 50 SMA. I thought it was going to be a big down day this morning. I was surprised when I woke up and look up market data in bed this AM. It appeared that market had a big reversal with European market open. ES had a 20 point reversal and formed a bullish engulfing candle. I haven't seen this kind of overnight reversal since European crises tow years ago.

I think the major world financial markets are all waiting for the Fed meeting this Wednesday. No one is willing to push the market to extreme just in case Fed pull another rabbit.

My 1750 position is saved for now. I will try to exit out tomorrow to be ready for Fed day. Although it may not make any money but I can free some margin for new position and reduce my risk.

Choppy Low 12-12-13

ES made several attempts to get back yesterday's range but failed at closing. It tested mid of CLVA and around Fib 50 RT from Nov 8 low reversal to most recent high. It could bounce from here or further test Fib 61.8% around 1765. If we go down further it would take the market back to prior balanced area. Is the market ready to do that before Fed's meeting next week?

I exited two position of this week with over 90% profit to release some margin. I had only 30k left from yesterday's carried away trades. I entered one at 1690 for week 4. I may exit 1765 scalp less than 15 points away for this week tonight. Just to be safe and in case another drop tomorrow on weekly option expiration.

I took stop for my SPY calls. I didn't act quick enough to minimize my losses although it's less than $100. but it's over 90% loss. I am still not good at directional options.

Here Comes the PB 12-11013

I predicted a lower day last night but didn't expect it gone this far. It was a 23 points down day for ES. One would think a budget deal is good news for the economy. But Wall street is so addicted to QE.

I didn't know the news and its impact when the day started. FT's Trader Bits didn't think it was a big factor either. I started release my puts sell order when ES testing the overnight low in the morning. I thought my S1 or S2 would hold it for today. Apparently the market sentiment turned very negative although the sell off was orderly. I got carried away with my assumption of small pull back based on the small range of last two days and the uptrend. My scalps of 1765 and 1760 went under water by mid day. My further out of money and time order were filled within the first hour too. I guess underneath I had fear of missing. I entered 11 contracts today. My margin is getting low. I get to be ready to take stop for my 1765 if the market comes with a big follow through tomorrow.

My first credit spread of index ETF IWM got crashed today too. The lesson here is that I didn't exit out yesterday when it was profitable and I knew it was a reckless order. Instead I thought I could take a chance since there were only 2 days to expiration. Now it's in the money and $130 in red. I will manage my risk or take stop before expiration.    

Small Ranges 12-10-13

Market fall below yesterday's range overnight. ES couldn't get back into yesterday's range after AM's try, but it didn't fall much either. It has only 7 point range, slightly better than yesterday. I guess the holiday and next week's Fed FOMC meeting are in traders' mind.

I was able to get in two ES positions for next week. USDA's world supply and demand report caused some volatile move but the grain complex moved back in range before closing. No major reset occurred.

News of a budget deal reached in Congress pushed market high after hour but falling back to the lower part of profile before middle night. Market may explore lower side tomorrow.

Monday Rule? 12-9-13

Market gaped up overnight and chopped all day. ES had less than 6 points, unusual for a Monday. Is the bull getting weak or just gathering energy? There are still room in this up trend. I will wait for a pull back to get in. Follow the trend until it's not a trend any more.

I didn't have any fill today since the range was so small. I wasn't aggressive enough to exit my corn and bean position. Tomorrow's USDA WSDR report will generate volatility. Grain market will reset base on the report. My bean call sell may be at risk since bean is in strong demand. My corn pull sell is counter-trend but below multi year low. I will try to exit bean over night.

Good Jobs Report, No Drop 12-6-13

This morning's job number came out better than expected but market pushed up after initial test of the lower edge of current balanced area. ES erased this weeks loss and closed at 1806. It appears Santa's rally just started.

I didn't get any puts in since there was no drop after open. I only had a scalp of 1810 call sell. It's not bad for several hours of holding. All of my positions for this week are profitable. The last four days drop helped to bring back volatility. I had full load of contracts for the first time since I increased the limit to 10 per week. This is my best week in terms of $ amount, even call sell worked.

Next week is grain demand report. I need to get out of my ZC and ZS holding's before Tuesday. Remember: Risk control first.

Waiting for the Job Report 12-5013

The waiting of the job report is almost over. ES traded in the lower part of yesterday's range all day. Tomorrow could be the same themes: good job number would be bad for the market. It's more than likely a volatile morning. I planned some orders for a ES big pull back. If it pops then we may look at a starting of Santa's rally.

I exited out my 1770 position in my personal account with a small profit just in case ES drops. I followed my plan and felt much better.

Engulfing: Bull or Bear? 12-4-13

It was a wild day. ES broke both over night high and low. After it broke yesterday's high for a few ticks before lunch I thought it was an up day. However, the selling started slowly until yesterday's open was crossed. My first S line was hit over night, my 2nd and 3rd S lines both reacted with a strong bounce. It finally reached Fib 78 RT within 1 point of my 3rd S line and a 20 point push back. Now the daily up trend and last balance area held. A new daily up channel formed. Today's candle looks like a bullish engulfing but it closed at yesterday's closing and still below yesterday' candle body. ES formed a doji with over night data. We may have a attempt of pushing lower but today's rejection was fairly strong. In waiting for Friday's job report I guess it is more than likely a balanced day tomorrow and we had a thorough action of 22 points.

I added two ES positions on today's push down. ES 1770 put in my IB holding reached my stop point of $6 briefly but quickly moved away. I had a exit stop loss order ready and prepared to enter a new order further out. That is a progress. I may exit it out tomorrow with a small profit just in case Friday's report drops the market. ZB is a little shaky too. I missed a further out entry by a tick. It's only 2 days from expiration but still not decaying at all.

All eyes are on Friday's job report. I will play defense until then.

PB Day Two 12-4-13

Pull back day two follow though as expected. ES had a 12.25 point range. My S2 was hit within 1.75 point. We may see Fib 78 if 62 % could not hold tomorrow. ES is back into previous balance area now.

I had bunch of orders spread into next two weeks but only two were filled. I reduced my order size for safety curtain in case this pull back is more severer.  

I am getting better at identifying S/R levels as my home work. The key is to work on waiting for the levels calmly. I am still too eager to trade. I held a SPY call option called by Vader today which I did right. I will wait to see if we have a possible turn around tomorrow or Thursday when people re-position for the job report.

New Month, New Pattern? 12-2-13

Today is Monday and the beginning of Dec. It appears that volatility is coming back. ES reached 1812, Fib 23 target last Friday although it was only a half trading day. It got sold pretty hard before closing. Today ES had a similar pattern. ES 11.75 range and reached all of my three support levels. Now I have to learn to incorporate the levels into my orders during the heat of price movement. I often forget to check these levels while totally concentrated on price movement.

I closed my CL put position when it got to over 80% profit and 17 days left. It's a good practice to lock in profit with this kind of volatile asset.

I also got in a put of ZB weekly put for the first time. This seams a different type of future option. It can be slow for days then make a sudden big move with rate related news. It's not decay much with only 4 days to expiration. I have to be careful with it.

I started my first credit spread in live account entering IWM 2 weeks out. It had 1% drop today and I am only 2% out of money. I wasn't patience enough to wait for it testing Fib 38%. I will have to exit it if this pull back continue for 2 more days. I didn't even check risk / probability profile before the trade. It also has a $750/$90 RR ratio.

It's likely another down day for tomorrow base on today's closing. There are some low volume areas below. This could be a pull back needed before they run up to a new high by year end. If this pull back become a more serious correction I will need to take my stops swiftly.

Ranging 11-26-13

Another 9 point range day with similar pattern: grinding up and fall down in the last hr. The difference today is that it didn't push up at closing. Hopefully we will get a pull back tomorrow before traders leave for Thanksgiving.

I didn't get any fill for ES and any other major position. I entered a ZC put based on a seasonality of last 5 & 10 years' December pattern. It has been up in most Decembers. CL is down again and I may get a chance with tomorrow's inventory report.

Be Thankful 11-27-13

The market just won't take a breath. It's still holding above 1800 for ES. We had a 6 point range today. I got couple calls and puts scalp at close range expecting not much move on the day after Thanksgiving.

I am thankful as my effort start paying off. I can see some lights at end of the tunnel. This will mark my first year of profit if I continue to make good trades and manage my risk well in December.  

Higher Highs 11-25-13

Market gaped up on Sunday night with Iran's nuclear deal. The trend continues. It was a 9 point range day and about 1 point higher than last Friday. It hasn't had much volatility lately. I didn't have anything filled today. It's Thanksgiving week now. Everything will slow down. But with thin volume it could move quick too.

I continue evaluating grains and bond options. Just make sure safety first.

All About Fed 11-20-13

Fed minutes was released at 2pm and market reacted negatively for certain languages implying a possible earlier tapering. It was a 20 point move day with morning break yesterday's high and afternoon tested Feb 50% RT.

I didn't get any fill for my ES orders although the price touched my first level of support. It looks like we may have another leg down before the weekend. I may have chance to fill my orders for next two weeks. Tomorrow's jobless claim and Friday's unemployment report will provide further information regarding tapering. 

My SPY calls made 40% profit and closed this AM. I entered another one after Fed min and based on Vader's twit. It was an undisciplined trade. My subconscious didn't stop my impulsive action. My plan was watch the full movement of Fed minute reaction before taking any action. Now my 1779 SPY calls are under water. I even added another one at 40C to average down. Got to exit it out tomorrow. 

Another New High 11-22-13

As many predicted based on yesterday's price action ES reached a new high and closed at 1801.5. It was another no 3 points pull back day. I planed several orders but no fills until I raised my entry to 1750 from 1735 after cash closing.

I am experimenting ZS puts to add it to my trading line. I had ZW, ZC orders but no fills either today. ZB can make sudden large move based on past actions so get be careful. It was a profitable but small week on ES selling. I waited for the price come to me but often than not I didn't get any fills day after day. It put quite emotional drain on my psychological capital. It's not easy to wait to get paid. It's required for long term success.

Unexpected 11-21-13

ES held at 1775 (Fib 50% RT) overnight and pushed up after European open. My last night's hypothesis didn't work. I thought there would be an attempt of test the gap zone this morning and it didn't happen either. It just kept going up with only one 3 points pull back. The move saved my SPY calls today and turned it into a 25% profit trade. The up trend continues and we may see a new high tomorrow.

Obviously I didn't get any fill for my planed ES entries from last night. I tried to sell ZB puts after couple paper trades but no fill today.    

Yo Yo Action 11-19-13

My primary thesis was down this morning based on overnight range. I didn't know what to expect when FT said that he expected a choppy day in the morning Trader's Bit. It turned out to be wild swings within a 11 point range. It breached both high and low of overnight range.  Bulls and bears fought hard from top to bottom. Today's low was Fib 38% RT from Nov. 8 break out.

I only had one put sell of 1715 of Dec 6 filled. I shall wait for tomorrow to get my scalp of this week and another leg in for next week since the hourly down trend still intact. It would be third down day if tomorrow is down again. I took a SPY call near today's with Vader's twits and took half off 42% but the one left was dragged down with the closing. I have to decide what to do tomorrow along with my ES call which is under water now. I didn't take profit yesterday with 200% return. It failed too quick after ES 1799.75.

A Real Pull Back? 11-18-13

ES opened up to 1799.75, only 1 tick short of 1800. It got smashed down from there. It even pushed through last Friday's low in the last hour but moved back inside before closing. It's a bear engulfing bar today. Would it repeat Nov 7 and 8 reversals?

I exited my 1810, Nov 29 call at noon since it reached my stop point on this morning's push up. The price was about $1 less than my original plan. Although it went down further but I feel good that I honored my plan. I may sell it at higher price if we get a pop in the next couple days.

CL dropped over 1% today and closed near low of the day. It looks like a bear flag at double bottom and low of BB low. Is it a retest of low or another leg down? I may add another OTM put around $82-80 if it break down.

Chaching Friday 11-15-13

It's the pay day again. All winners. I didn't have scalps in ES but experimented CL/LO. Am I too conservative in this bull market? I had only 1/3 of my planed position in ES this week. There was no a single day of pull back. It has been 6 up weeks for the market according to Vader.

I am thinking about using CL/LO for expiration weeks scalping mainly. Need to learn more about this volatile market.

Let's see what next week will bring. I would think the last week of Nov will be slow due to the holiday.

New High 11-14-13

Both ES and Dow set new high again today although the range were small. Market was encouraged by Yellen's comment in Congress's confirmation hearing. ES had 11.25 point range. Market appears setting up for option expiration tomorrow.

I exited out my 1800 call sell position with a small loss and left my 1810 call. It was a right plan. My 1810 call is doubled now and should cover the small loss if ES move high tomorrow. I may close it tomorrow to void time decay and lock in profit. I may set a credit spread for my 1810 call sell of EOM.

I started using CL options for scalping this week. It has better premium that ES when near expiration. Crud oil is a much volatile instrument. I should use it with farther OTM and shorter time frame. First is to identify large trend and stay with it. Second is to make sure a daily level is breached, then trade from opposite side of the trend and levels.

Every day's home work and identify key levels help me looking at bigger pictures. Any plan is better than no plan.

A Big Pop 11-13-13

I thought we could have a good pull back today based on the lower lows of last two days and below 1758 at open this AM. I was ready to use this drop to enter some new puts and exit my 1800 call with a small profit. I didn't realize it was an OD when FT71 mentioned it after the open. There were several resistance levels to overcome. It turned out to be a bull engulfing day bar. ES closed at a new high of 1779, crossed Fib 23 target.

My levels for tomorrow: S 1779, 1773 and 1768, R: 1786, 1789, Fib 50 target; 1793 TL and 1797 WR.

I will have to unwind my 1800 spread and possible hedge my 1810 for month end. My CL puts are working. It turned out the CL inventory report is Thursday this week. Guess it was affected by government shut down?

Flagging 11-12-13

ES had a 10 point pull back before that 2 pm magic time. It hit my first S level of 1760. It come to my next week's entry of 1705 at 2.55 but didn't fill me then pushed up. I had to move my entry price up to 2.15 and 2.25 to get fill for both QII and my own accounts.

CL was a different story. It retested yesterday's high at open and crashed to near the last low. It looks like big traders tried to clean the deck for tomorrow's inventory report. I made a mistake yesterday. My subconscious told me to wait for confirmation of break to the upside before sell puts but I wasn't patience enough to wait. I entered a put sell of 90 for 6c and it hit 14 today when CL lost $2, about 2%. I added 1 at 13C. I will have to take a stop if we get another big drop after tomorrow's inventory report. I will take a farther OTM to recover the loss.

Calm before a Storm? 11-11-13

It's a very slow Monday and Veteran's Day. ES had a 6 point range only. It stayed on top portion of last Friday and very high end of the CHVA. ES looks like ready to break out higher. I didn't sell any ES position due to the small range. I entered a next week call of 1810 to set a call credit spread in order to protect my 1800 position.

I entered a small far OTM for crude oil for next month. I want to add a new dimension to my trading of selling future options. Tried a scalp for this month but didn't get fill. My short of wheat was no fill either.

Tomorrow, my levels are, R 1774.5 D-top, 1782 of trend line and R line. S, 1760, 1753 and 1748 of IHS neck line.

Lucky Friday 11-8-13

It was luck to void a possible train rack today. There were only 2 of 14 positions closed overnight. I decided to close most of the near money position before the job report at 8:30 am. I did close 1730 with a small profit and 2 of 6 1735 before the report. I was exposed with a potential loss of the 1735. The job number was much better than expected, 220K vs 120K expected. ES tested 1736.25, the very end of the large balanced area. It couldn't break it and push up all day to yesterday's broken down point of 1767. It erased all the lost of yesterday. My assumption was it would pull back to test BBD/M for a set up of going lower. But it pushed through. Looks like the bulls are not ready to give up and want to charge higher.

What I did right and wrong in this week.
1. I made a decision to control risk and honor my stops this morning. I exited some positions before open this morning.
2. I was patience for the most of the week, except yesterday. I was not very calm during the high volatile time.
3. I had plan to manage my positions. Although the plan was not perfect and partially come on the fly. Any plan is better than no plan.
4. I over traded yesterday.  I entered 15 contracts during the high volatile time and 12 of them were for this week's scalping. I exceeded my weekly planed number of contract. Had a total of 19 for this week. It could have been a disaster if ES has a different reaction to today's job number. I will limit my contract number to 12 per week with current margin amount.
5. In the heat of market swings I forget I need to trade my IB personal account too.

Luck is good. But don't rely on luck for business profit. It may run out one day and cause a big loss. Must methodically manage each trade like a pro.    

Least Expected, T.J. 11-7-2013

Market turns often happen when you lest expected. Everything was pointing up this morning when ECB dropped rate and US GDP came out better than expected. ES hit 1775 high pre market with ECB news. May be the GDP was the underlying fact for the drop. Better GDP = Better employment numbers? I didn't think about that earlier.

ES had about 30 point swing and 21 points drop. The ranges are much bigger than I expected. I over traded at 1735 level and kept add positions to average out. Entered 15 contracts and committed most of margins for today. My 1735 puts are about 1.5Xs under water. I may have to take a stop overnight or tomorrow if it gaps down with job numbers. I need to limit my number of cars allowed per day to better manage risk.

Tomorrow's market movement is very much depending on the job numbers at 8:30 AM. Remember that a bad number is good for the market and a good number may trigger a sell off. My levels are: S, 1737, 1732, 1727 and 1723. R: 1755, 1762 and 1767.

Hard to be Patience 11--6-13

The consolidation continues. ES moved higher overnight. It gaped up and reached 1770 after open and had a clear rejection. Then it came down to yesterday's VPOC but didn't close the gap. It chopped in a 5 point range for the rest of the day.

I had about 3-5 orders from scalp to next two weeks but no fills. It's been hard to stay inaction. I haven't had any major fill for 7 days now. It's the longest period without action since I started this system. I guess it indicate the my patience and discipline have improved. The MACD in IB chart is going lower while price of ES keep inching up. The market is waiting for Friday's job report. Volatility will come by then.

T.J. 11-5-13 Still a Bull

I kept expecting a deeper pull back this week. John Carter's cycle theory enforced my thesis. But for the last five days every morning's push down met with buyers pushing it up in the afternoon. My support level 2 didn't get hit so as all of my entries of puts. ES is in a daily squeeze channel now. It may get resolved after this Friday's job report or sooner.

I was only able to get in a scalp of 1720. I don't have anything for next two weeks. I guess my patience is running thin. Need to recognize and control my emotions. I paper traded bond and SPY credit spread today. Grains are still weak. I will wait for this Friday's DOA's production report and may get in some position next week.

ES looks like a bull flag now. Tomorrow's S levels are: 1756, 1752 and 1743.5; R levels are: 1770, 1775 (new high) and 1778. If we break in a new high there may be a new balance area. I will try to sell puts on any pull backs but not sell calls for the next two weeks unless there is a clear rejection of new high.

T.J. 11-4-13 No Pull Back

It was a up but choppy Monday. ES opened with a 6 point gap from o/n high. It pulled back to cash closing of last Friday which I didn't notice. I had an long order at the after hour closing and didn't get filled. It looks like the shallow is over after Friday's doji but closed above BBD/M. ES is challenging Fib 68 RT from the all time high. It may test the new high soon if we don't get a reversal tomorrow. I didn't have any fill of options today.

Tomorrow's up targets are 1769.5 and 1773 of the new high. Below are 1756 and 1748.

T.J. 11-1-13 A Small Chaching Friday

It's Chaching Friday again. My gain was smaller due to the stop of 1760 calls and lack of pb before FOMC. Combined with Thursday's month end expiration it totaled to $930. I didn't have any fill today despite more than normal orders pending ES didn't came far enough to my expected levels and I didn't chase them much.
I would rather wait to see what early next week will bring. My expectation is that the market may pull back further to BBD/M and MACD has 2 red bars so far. There have not been enough volatility. Today's push down at closing showing that sellers are still active. On the other hand I am prepared to be left behind if the market start to go up early next week.

I feel frustrated that I didn't have any new position today. I am learning to accept it as part of business, in business and life you don't get what you want every time. Guess I just need to follow my rules and wait for the market come to me.
 

T.J. 10-31-13 Follow Through

Day 2 of FOMC, market continues to move lower but with a lot of push back. It broke both o/n low and high. The low didn't reach my support of 1749-1748 and the high got to my 1st R line of 1762ish.

I entered two scalps for today and tomorrow. The last one I did wishy washy a lot between 55-70. A bad habit kept showing up. I prepared to trade ES options in my personal IB acct  but no fill today.

Tomorrow's support levels are 1745 and 1738ish. R levels are 1763, 1767 and 1770. I will try to have positions for the next two weeks.

T.J. 10-30-13 FOMC

My plan of exit 1760 calls didn't work as it was faulty to begin with. I thought about to exit it at 1.5 to 2X loss yesterday and entering it at $11.50-12.50 it would have recovered better in math. There was no pull back at all  last night but touched a new high of 1773. ES opened testing o/n low and looked ready to go back up for a new high. I exited my 11.50 at 12.25 with fear of a new high. I had to exit my 3.25 position at 2X loss at 9.25 but it was when it fall back. After FOMC statement market struggled up and down to 1751 It finally went back to PP of 1760 and Fib 50 RT in today's range. I had one scalp for this week and one leg in for next week at 1705. It is only 50 point, 2.8% away from my entry and bit too close.  I will be ready to exit out and get in further OTM if it doesn't hold. The up trend is still intact so far and Fed is not going to taper for now.

Tomorrow may be a follow though down day. It's down this evening and could be a gap in the AM depending how the European market react to Fed's news. My down side levels are 1740, p-days low/Fib 23.6% RT and 1735, last balance area low and CLVN. The upper side levels are 1762 of PP and 1768 of a trend line and the last CHVN, 1770 would be a double top which may be a heavy resistance.

T.J. 10-29-13 Raging Bull

I don't even remember when was the last down day since the debt ceiling deal. I have not been able to sell any puts this week. Bulls are pushing up all major indexes without any meaningful pull back. I have no any put position since I close my 1630 put for this week yesterday.

I was expecting the market to take a breath today since tomorrow is FOMC. Over night actions stayed in the upper section of yesterday. ES had a similar pattern as prior days of pushing down at open and popping to new highs at closing. I waited all day trying to add a position to my 1760c at 11ish. I was patience enough until it got filled after hour. But I realized my approach was faulted. I should have taken the stop first and enter another position at the price I wanted instead of letting the old one been taken to a bigger hole. As ES is getting to 1768 at S2 filling my add on, I am deeper in the water with my older one.

Tomorrow is going to be wild after 2pm FOMC's statement. I would expect 20-30 point swings. I must exit all of my position before 1pm regardless of loss or win. Also identify couple areas up and down for new positions. If we get a taper statement I may want to wait for the following day to get a clear picture.

T.J. 10-28-13 Monday Agian

It's Monday and possibly trend setting day. ES set new high of 1762.5 overnight and fall back with European market. Sellers pushed it down after open and buyers stepped in at lower trend line + O/N low. The pattern continues from last week. It's a strong up trend market, however, last night's high was contained by a top trend line from September's high. I guess it will take Wednesday's fed meeting to break it or drop from there.

I don't plan to enter any major positions for ES options before FOMC this Wednesday. I will manage my 1760 call to unwind it before end of tomorrow. Will not hold and hope. It's going to be a big move and I have learned from last FOMC's price action.

At closing, it looks like ES is not ready to challenge the upper trend line yet, it started to pull back after reaching 1760 in the last 20 minutes. It may still want to hold outside last Friday's range and claim a new high day. It closed at upper side of VP and BB/H but inside of VA. It may move up again overnight and tomorrow.

T.J. 10-25-13 Chaching Friday

ES touched a new high again for barely 1 point before closing. Buyers picked up every pull back this week.
Today's move may give next week another leg up.
I didn't have a lot for this week in my ES options since there were no any meaningful pull back. I am learning just taking what market will give me not force any trade. I am glad to take $800 this week without taking much of risk. I don't have much position for next week.  

T-J 10-24-13 Flaging

ES had the same pattern as yesterday: dropping at 1st hour and buyers stepped in pushing it up till closing. It has been building a higher high and higher low in daily and hourly charts after Tuesday's pull back of touch Fib 23 target. On a bigger picture it's forming a bull flag. It looks like ready for another leg up if it breaks 1755 high again. BB4 is in a squeeze channel. On the other hand, MACD is going lower hinting a possibility of no break of new high. We will see more clear tomorrow.

The keys for tomorrow are, Low of 1743, 1739 and 1735, high of 1755, 1758 and 1765.

I had one put sale scalp today. Nothing else. I spent more of the afternoon at Dentist office for a deep cleaning. That is no fun.

T.J. 10-23-13 A Pull Back

This is the first pull back day since the debt ceiling deal. Is ES forming a bull flag or a HS? Giving the strong up trend it is more likely that ES will try to challenge the high or make a new high. Only time will tell.

I got in a scalp of 1700 P today for $110 income. there are couple others didn't get fill. I am also trying to get out my 1760 C for Nov 1 just in case the market going for a new high. It has been choppy all afternoon. I had more stop out in my ES Sim trading. The low end of my estimated range 1735 was hit this morning.  

Grains had overnight high but sold off at closing. My wheat position is still out there, but getting close to get out if there are couple more down days.

T.J. 10-22-13 Jobs

September job report came out close to what market was hoping for, slow growth. Market shoot up with below expectation job number. ES reached a new high of 1754.4 which is Fib 23% target from August low. After a 12 point push down to yesterday's high buyers stepped in and held the trend. Tomorrow's range is between 1728, 1739 to 1763. The market is like an raging bull now. There has been no any sign of slowing down since last week's debt ceiling deal.

I tried 2 scalp from below but no fill today. My 1760 call of 11-1 is under water now. I may add a contract at 2X premium and one further OTM above 1780. I will get puts in if we get a pull back of 1-3 days before this week end. Wheat is the strongest hold up among grains. My 2 call sell positions are ok but hasn't appreciated as I had hoped. I should see more of accelerated time decay for these November calls. I entered them bit too early.

T.J. 10-21-13 Waiting

It's a very slow Monday. ES is hanging in last Friday's range after a early test of new high of 1742.5. It had a 7.5 point range. It looks like the market is waiting for tomorrow's job report because of the government shutdown delay. Tomorrow's range may be 1728 (gap close), then 1722 S2 to 1748 RL and 1752 TL depending on how the market interpret the job data.

I didn't have any new position today. Waiting for a upper or down level and volatility to return. Be patience.

T.J. 10-18-13 Wrong Plan Leads to Bad Result

My plan for today was only one sided. It was based on my expectation of the market behaves. I didn't have a hard rule of exit in place other than 2X stop loss. Earlier I had only less than $300 under water. I could have a plan of scale out at lower loss. Instead, I had to close most of the call sale positions in the last 30 min. It was dangerous. I could have cost a lot more than $380 if the market kept going up. At one time it was over $1100 under water.

Good thing is that I didn't panic today. The overall plan was executed although the plan itself had flaws. Also in planning entries I need to have some more hard rules instead of gut feelings. Also be flexible. In a trending day, selling puts is safer than calls for scalping. In reviewing my results, most of my big losses were from selling calls.

T.J. 10-16-13 S&P's New High

The after debt ceiling deal party didn't start immediately after open. As many thought it might be a sale on the news day. With the slow motion I thought it might get knocked down after a test of new high. But the bulls were persistent and kept pushing up until the end to the new high of 1728. It even got to 1733 this evening with China's GDP news.

I tried to scalp by selling calls this morning. I didn't expect it will get close to 1730 when it was at 1715. I got sucked into the same situation as last Friday. The same habit of not thinking from the other side. I guess it takes more than once to change a habit. It would be safer had I kept selling puts since it was a up trend day. My 1735 call selling is under water now. The upper resistance is at 1740. I will be forced to take stop if we gap up tomorrow and keep going. But the monthly option expiration may help me unwinding this position. Either way, must follow my plan and rules.

T.J. 10-15-13 Near Ending

It looks like Congress is closing on a temporary solution for re open the government and raise the debt ceiling. It may be voted tonight or tomorrow before the deadline. ES has been up 20 points since open.

I was looking at some call selling positions if market pop further on news of a deal passed. But it has not happened. ES reached its Fib target of 23%, 1716 before closing again and made a double bottom. We will see what happens tomorrow if the market sells on the news after it bought on rumor.

T.J. 10-15-13 Market on Defense

It's all about Washington now. Any good or bad news or rumor today made the market nerves and jumpy. These politicians are playing fire. I am so tired of both side now.

Had 2 put positions sold for this week and end of the month today. I forgot to release one and was in panicking mold when I saw the price already crossed my target. Without looking at the overall condition I raised 10C to $2.85 and clicked the T button. It ended touching high of $3.60. Other than that, I was patiently waiting and voiding to get too many orders in just in case Congress drag into the last minute or even the unimaginable default really happens. We will see tomorrow if these guys like to be magicians.  

T.J. 10-14-13 Still No Deal

There is still no deal in Congress for the government shutdown and debt ceiling. Market opened on Sunday night gap down with ES had 15 points gap. It got recovered with today's news about a possible deal nearing. I didn't have any orders fill since the price didn't come up or down to my levels.

I started a weekly option trading room with DTI for this week. I want to lean spread options.

T.J. 10-11-13 Chaching Friday,

I like Fridays now because it's a pay day from market. Although I get paid on the day of selling options but market can take it back until Friday's expiration time.

ES opened up again as expected. I had a chance to close my 1695 pre market but it wasn't my plan. Any way, it was a busy morning and noon to unwind all my call selling positions. I had to average up 1695 and sold them gradually. In the end I only made over $120 for all of the 11 call positions. It was too risky for these scalps. Of course I am glad I didn't lose any money. One change in me was that I didn't wait and hope for the mercy of the market. My goal was exit safely and I achieved it. Market started to push up after 2pm at algo time. The 1695 would have been assigned if I didn't get out earlier.  

My goal was achieved this week without a loser.

T.J 10-10-13 Think Differently

Wow, what a day and night from yesterday to today. Yesterday market reached a new low and formed a doji or hammer bar. Overnight the hint of a possible budget and debt ceiling deal moved everything higher. ES opened today with a 18 point gap. It pushed up and never looked back. My expectation for ES was it would trade around 1677-1681 of CHVA but more likely fill in 1665-1670 of the CLVA while waiting for the final deal if any. Without any confirmed deal ES kept pressing ahead and made 38 point advancement including the gap. It's the 2nd best day of 2013 after Jan, 3rd.

Things I did right today:
1. Remembered risk control first. I didn't take 1685 or 1690 calls although it was about 30 points away from this morning's view. I didn't enter any call sale position for the next two weeks since I expected more upside to come with a deal from DC.
2. I didn't over react to this big push, rather I was slowly adding my tomorrow's expiring position.
3. I was relatively calm.

Things I didn't do well.
1. I under estimated the potential of this move. I didn't re-draw Fib retrace which could tell me 1683 was Fib 50 RT.
2. My bias led me to enter 1695 and 1670 scalp too early.
3. I didn't think differently from the opposite direction. I could have sold puts below the gap to scalp and get the same result with more safety.
4. I still feel the fear of missing when I decide an entry order which cause me to lower my entry level. Instead I need to wait for the price come to me.

At this writing of 11pm, ES pushed cross 1 point of RTH high at 1688. Fib 62 RT is at 1693.5 and a weekly R/L at 1695. We may blow off these level with any positive news tomorrow. I need to manage my risk of 1695 and 1700. I may add one more to 1695 at $350 and close the position on any weakness tomorrow.

T.J. 10-9-13 Bouncing

ES tested Fib 78 RT and lower trend line this morning and bounced. It ended up with a Doji of daily bar. This could be a change of mood and a bottom signal with a successful retest of low. Of course DC is still a big factor. Any news could pop or drop the market.

I had a 1590 put scalp today. Tried couple call scalps at 1685 and 1695 but no fills. I am all in put but looks safe for this week's pay off now. May get in more for the next two weeks by Friday. Altering prices are still a problem for me. Get to watch levels in big pictures.

Tomorrow's levels: Up is 1667 to 1671 with 1669 being 50 SMA. Below is 1639 being D bottom and 1632 at last major support.

T.J. 10-8-13 Cracked

Market's bottom finally cracked this morning. Yesterday's closing below 50SMA was an indication. It was slowly and methodically pushing down all day. I thought the Fib 62 RT of 1660 or 23 Extension at 1653 from top could provide some supports. They were cut through like butter. It was finally held at the lower daily down trend line. It doesn't look like the capitulation has happened yet. Tomorrow, the down side could be Fib 78 RT at 1640ish and Fib ET 50% from top at 1637ish. On the up side, it may push to 1665 or 1669 at lower end of last CHVA.

By and large I executed my plan well with some small flaws. I had one entry for each week only varied prices and levels slightly. My expectation was a 15-17 point move but it actually was 21 point. The entry of 1605 for this week was too early at $155. It reached $220 later in the day. I added one at $210.

An announcement of Yellen will be the next Fed Chef this evening made ES rallying from 1646 to 1657. Let's see what may bring tomorrow. Be prepared for both ways. I should only scalp for this week and watch my risk, especially the 1615 position. Ready to take stop and ladder up for a new position if a big drop follow through.    

T.J. 10-7-13 Trend Setting Monday

With concern of debt ceiling and fed shutdown, equity market gaped down on Sunday night. It dropped further after European market open. I thought that we were going to see ES moving to the next balance area of 1663-1642. Instead it tested over night low and bounced and pushed up for most of the day. Until about 20 minute before closing market started to dropping. ES pushed all the way back to the LOD by cash closing. I got today's sequences totally wrong in my SIM trading. It appears market is setting up to crack the bottom tomorrow of course it's a news driven market.

I started to leg in for the next two weeks. I have 120 and 160 points away for 10-18 and 10-25. The volatility is high and October is famous for big drops. Be ready to add, or take stop and re-enter farther out positions.

T.J. 10-4-13 Friday

It's a harvesting Friday. All of this week's puts and calls are expired with profits and reached my $1K target. The market opened with initial selling and got pushed up until closing. It looks like the debt ceiling can be raised based on the House Speaker's statement.

I used too much margin for scalping yesterday and didn't leave enough room for my regular positions at later time. I need to improve this area. A new allocation plan may be: 6-10 for coming week in 2-3 positions. and 4-6 for the week after = 2 weeks out. Of course it's all depending on market condition. Position size for Fed week should be reduced or get in early and far OTM.

Remember: Risk control first. Wait for the price come to my setup = I own the market.

T.J. 10-3-13 1st Flash Down

ES looked ready to push up in the morning after overnight's double bottom and rejection. It was above CHVN and it opened higher. It quickly turned negative. I tried to go long at O/N low and clvn but both got stopped out in sim. It went down to 1663.5 and filled a old gap. It was a 21 points swing. I was way too early to put in my put scalping order thinking the double bottom and last swing low could hold. Today's pattern was just opposite of the last few days. My 1650 put of $65 was crashed big time up to $305 despite I added one more at $125. I wasn't totally prepared at all. Luckily the options are fairly forgiving especially near expiration. My positions were recovered mostly by the day's end.

My head wasn't very cool before noon, partially I had to deal with the Deloach's problem. I didn't have a good sleep last night. Some pro traders have a rule of not trading if they are upset or didn't have a good sleep. Get to pay attention and recognize my own emotions and state of mind.  

T.J. 10-2-13 Holding?

The market has been holding well in the balanced area. This week's pattern has been drop overnight and push back in day session. Considering the fed shut down on the 2nd day it's holding pretty well. I haven't heard any resolution for the budget gridlock. I guess that is what the market is waiting for. The market will eventually go either way. My job is to minimize risk and maximize profit. Be mindful about October since several big crashes has happened in this month.

I had a chance to take profit in SPY for half of my position. I moved my target from 125 to 135 and missed it. This bad habit seams becoming a second nature now. Get to recognize it and change it.

I have been distracted by Deloach Group's debt issue. The guy is pretty sneaky. He used my name and accounts to engage health insurance contract and product purchasing.  

T.J. 10-1-13 Fed Shut Down

The Federal Government officially shut down today. All of non essential federal employees are temporarily out of work. Surprisingly the market kept pushing up to fill two gaps above. Closed at high of the day. ES is at 1689, near BBD/M. I expect a drop tomorrow based on BB PB and Fib entrancement if there is no major news of a budget deal. Hypotheses 2 would be pushing up to Fib RT 50 at 1697 or Fib 62 at 1703.5 which are end of CHVA and CLVA near S3.

I didn't get in any ES position since it didn't come down or go up far enough. I had a SPY put position for next week. I will be patiently waiting for the price come to my area of interest.

J.T. 9-30-13 Fed Gov Shut Down?

The fed government's operation is hanging on a thread of Congress's action today.  Market gaped down on Sunday night. ES gaped cross its old gap again. Everyone is waiting for the final word if the gov is going to shut down by mid night tonight. Either way the shut down may be a short term event with big volatility. I will only focus on 1-2 weeks ES option positions since there are so many unknown events. Be prepared for a big swing and possible long expected pull back.

It's the quarter end too. My month end options are looking OK except 1660 put which is about 10 points away with 15 min to closing. It's a new event risk unlikely but possible. My exit out is set and ready to go in case a sudden move.

Well, everything for this week expired worthless as there hasn't no solution from Congress at the closing. I expect the short term down trend will continue and will handle it accordingly.

T.J. 9-27-13 Gap and Chaching Friday

The market has been really weepy. Yesterday's rapid rejecting low before closing  made it looked like ready to explore upwards. Then it made a small gap down early morning. It finally closed last Monday's gap below. I guess we are still waiting for Washington's budget deal. It's likely these politicians will kick the can down the road again with a temporary debt ceiling and budget solutions. I am getting tired of these irresponsible and inefficient process.

It's a profitable week for me, or more of a small recovery from last week's disaster. I am disappointed but have to pull myself up from the knock down. I was lucky to get couple of scalps from yesterday and today.
I expect a gap on Sunday if there is a debt ceiling deal over the weekend. A vote is scheduled for tomorrow.

I will start track and report weekly P/L to measure my progress closer.

T.J. 9-26-13 Same Pattern

Markets are often in the same pattern for several days. This week's pattern for ES has been sell at open, push up before noon and drop in the afternoon. It has been happening since this Tuesday. After recognizing it the more important issue is how do I plan my trade base on it. The trick is that one won't know when the pattern will change.

Well, at the last 40 minutes of closing ES bounced from a double bottom. ES is closed at 1692ish，the higher part of the CHVA. It's parked at a neutral of BBD/M. It could go either way tomorrow or the next few days. I guess people are waiting for Washington.

I tried a scalp of put 1670 at 75-55C and missed it because I moved the entry from 55 to 60c. A bad habit costed me $100 quick profit. I only got 1 scalp for Monday the month end contracts.

T.J. 9-25-13 5th Down Day

Market had another small down day. Every rally attempt got crashed. Vader tried to swing long and was hammered for 2nd day. It's unusual that ES pushed into gap zone but didn't fill the gap. I guess the market is still in a waiting mode. I had a spread of call and put. The put made money but the call didn't. It may end up break even.

I legged in a sell put of 1630 for 10/4. It looks safe as long as the up trend is in tack. I am also in a wheat call sell position. The trend is down for grains. I will add couple more positions if it pushes up further.

T.J. 9-24-13 Looking for Direction

It's a wild day. ES breached both overnight high and low again. It broke O/N low after open. I thought that we were going to fill the gap but it only got the edge of the gap and then popped. I later noticed that SPY actually closed the gap. It pushed through CHVN and PP of 1696 and up to 1701. It started drop after 2 pm and back to over night low again. The day ended up with a big doji. It looks like the market is waiting for Washington but there has been no news come out.

I exited a call of 1710 and put of 1670 just for precaution in case of the debt ceiling news move the market drastically. My SPY call and put are in place too but they were not well planed. They both are at 45 each side. I need to learn more about regular options.

T.J. 9-23-13 Trend Setting Monday

ES opened down for all day but was in a 12 point range. It tested Fed day's crime seen and closed right at it. It looks ready to test last Monday's gap. The debt ceiling is a cloud overhanging the market although not much news about it. Not many pro traders whom I follow talks about it. Does the market expect it will resolve it before the deadline or there is no major effect? E Health even popped 8% today like there is no de-funding of Obama Care. I exited partial of my e health position as it crossed my target.

I carried away a bit for these weekend decay positions last Friday. This week's 1670 puts are in danger if the gap gets closed at 1681. This was not my setup. I follow Twitter Veenmr1's trade which I broke my rule of " follow my rules and pick my setup=I own the market". I entered an order to exit the position to take off my risk and correct my mistake. Another rule breaker was that I entered 1660 9/27 puts for only $1.15 wanting the decay last Friday. My rule is no less than $2.00 premium except short term scalping. ES 1660 put hit $2.25 today which I added one. Be aware that changing habit is a process. It may take some tries to get it right. In the mean time I need to control risk to ensure that I can last long enough to succeed.

T.J. 9-20-13 Reversal?

I exited out my last losing position pre market at 2700 this AM. It would have been a wash if it wasn't quarter end options. ES came back to retest Wednesday's break out area. It was a slow grinding down in the morning and accelerated in the afternoon. The later drop may have something to do with the congress passed a bill that de-funding Obama Health Care plan. It looks like the debt ceiling battle is on in the next two weeks.

I entered some put options to fill next two weeks positions. I still was not patience enough on couple of entries. I lowered my entries a notch lower. A bad habit takes a lot to change. I will obey my rules to take stop if they come down to 1.5-2x against me. It actually will work out to reduce loss, b/o or profit when I take stop and enter new positions further out of money.  A lesson of three months profit should be strong enough to change my bad habit. Otherwise I won't be able to make it in this business.

T.J. 9-19-13 Disaster

The fate of this week's ES call selling was determined when the two gap up happened I didn't take any actions. I kept waiting for Syria and Fed meeting to change the direction, basically using such events to delay stop losses. The needed discipline hasn't become my habit and way of natural action. I thought about scaling out several times but didn't take any action. Like I haven't learned enough from last May's loss. I am still not a professional trader/investor yet judging by my behaviors. I was more of a hold and hope armature.

Today's  small pull back got me out some calls at the first target of 1721. I have 4 left at closing. I will close them out before bed time since it will close at 9am tomorrow morning.

I will manage the next two weeks positions tomorrow and start my recovery process. Be willing to take losses early and keep them manageable. This should be my last hold and hope. Otherwise I have no way of making it in this business! Am I willing to throw my four year effort away because I have no will of power to change some bad habits?

T.J. 9-17-13 Waiting Game

Market is holding up the day before Fed meeting ending tomorrow, the once a month event. ES push to half gap low last night and now has moved up 8 points or so in the upper part of yesterday's profit and above CHVN at noon. It looks like wanting to test yesterday's high. My hypothesis of last night was expect ES to fill the gap and parked at a neutral area around the break out point. Now it's more bullish than I expected.

ES closed near day's high again. I guess the big guys are expecting a positive outcome of Fed statement, plus they want a good quarter end. Or, are they going to build it high then drop it hard?

I will wait to see the direction after the announcement and Ben's news conference. I held my urge to enter any position today. Since it's Quadruple week and ES options would be close for trading at 9 AM on Friday, I have to exit my losing positions on Thursday. My exit strategies for this weeks under water options are, 1, wait until Thursday to squeeze out most of time value but risk of let premiums go much higher if the ES stay up after Fed meeting; 2, Exit them tomorrow before Fed meeting with a known loss figure but risk of a recovery if the market drops after the Fed meeting. My situation is similar to last May.

T.J. 9-18-13 Another Fed Day!

The anticipated tapering didn't happen. The fire work started rapidly right at the announcement. My thesis was pop and drop as it happened many times before. It didn't even have a retest of the break out area and went straight up for 20 some point. I couldn't come up with a good hedge strategy other than selling this week's calls at higher price. I didn't think of using SPY call nor sell 1690ish for hedging.

The bottom line is that I am still don't have a pro's discipline and mindset. I thought about reducing part of my call position this morning but didn't take action. Rather I was hold and hope. I know better but didn't enforce it. Now it looks like this week's loss may wipe out my last three months' profit.

T.J. 9-16-13 Gaps Again to the New High

After Mr. Lawrence Summers announced withdrawing from Fed chief's nomination on Sunday afternoon futures market gaped up over 1%. ES and NQ both reached a new high. All of my call selling are under water. It is a big lesson to teach me again whenever I am so sure of a market's direction and let my guard of risk control down the market will slap my hands.

At 3 pm today ES has had a 10 point range and it's moving very slow. My guess is that the market is cautions because the Fed meeting announcement is this Wednesday. My guess is the market will park at mid of a key level before Fed meeting. I will let my call sells of this week to decay for 1-2 more days in hope of minimizing the loss.

T.J 9-13-13 Chaching Friday

This week ended with a small profit due to the stops of 1680/1685. I summarized my mistakes in yesterday's T.J. Glad I took those stops. I hesitated but finally enforced my rules. Will apply the same rules next week.

 I entered a scalp put of 1630 to offset possible call stops for next week. ES closed at high of the day and may gap up again next Monday. I am ready to take actions after this weekend decay.

It's a process in learning discipline and risk control. I am making progress.  

T.J. 9-12-13 Over Confidence

I took stops for my 1680 and 1685 for this week at 1.5 to 2X. I am glad I did it regardless the prices are lower now. Although the prices I got was not as good as yesterday's. But I didn't act like a deer in the head lights not knowing what to do. In reviewing my serials of call selling last Wednesday, I made several mistakes.
1. Overly confidence: ES was at 50 MA and the old 8-15 gap had not been challenged. I was overly confident that ES would have tough time to go through these levels with Syria over hanging. I set my entry levels in Fib 50 and 62 area. I didn't expect there could be another solution for Syria and Friday's job report was below expectation. The market gaped up to cross the old gap.

2. Bend my rules. I don't enter orders on one side for three weeks out in one day. Because of the over confidence and my increase margin. I entered in orders with all three weeks thinking that was a once in a week time opportunity. A thought of this was wrong did come cross my mind but I ignored it. Actually I should wait for Thursday or Friday to place orders to get better decay.

3. Poor execution.  My order is set for $10 increments so I can have more protections. This time I did it in every increment next to each other.

Those mistakes cost my near $700 this week. It may go even more for next week's calls if the ES continue to move up.

Things I did well are:
1, Took stops unlike in May I waited for them to get assigned at higher cost.
2.  Hedged my lost from the other side which reduced my losses.
3. Mentally accepted my losses and hopefully learned from these mistakes.

T.J. 9-11-13 Don't Touch That Order!!!

ES had a very narrow range in bull flag overnight. My hypotheses were down if it break overnight low first after open. I thought it could do some back filling to close the gap especially ES didn't respect Fib 62 on the way up. It did break the overnight low first but hanged on the cliff of CHVA. I had my exit orders for 1680 and 85 site there for expected stop losses. When the prices got near my greedy and bad habit of moving orders took over. I moved my order from 5.25 to 4.75 below the options gap. Also moved my SIM target to below PP. ES tried several times but couldn't get to yesterday's low. It bounced up with 2 ticks away from my orders. It pushed up to officially closed 8-15's gap and touched Fib 78 line at 1687.5. It has not seen any major sells reaction at this level as of 2:55 pm.  My losses of this week's calls are doubled because I moved the orders two notches down. A bad habit costed me several hundred $s now. I will see if the Fib 72 level would hold as an resistance. Also today is the third day up. If we don't have a pull back by tomorrow, I will have to get out at a bigger loss since both orders are ITM now.

Wow, ES pushed up to 1688.5, the top of this CHVA at closing. It has been three days without any pull back. ES looks ready to get to a new high following NQ. I obviously forgot the pain I had in May when I was so confident that ES would not easily push to a new high without a pull back. Tomorrow may tell.

There has been no activities in grain front for me. I am waiting for USDA's report tomorrow. I will see the trend to confirm the day after tomorrow.

T.J. 9-10-13 A Gap to A Gap

I guessed it last night but thought it was unlikely a gap up over night. I don't remember seeing a gap up to fill a old gap down before. In auction's theory it indicates the market is not interested in this 1670-1677 area which is also a CLVA. Over night, China's better than expected data and positive Syria news pushed oversea market higher. Apple released its new I5s and I5c today. It's the same pattern that market buy it on rumor and sell it on news. My order on a pull back for Apple didn't get filled.

ES closed at 1682 in a CHVA. It setting ready to test higher end of this CHVA of 1688 area or could back fill the gap area. Pre. Obama's speech tonight may affect the direction of the market. It looks like the attack is delayed at least. I need to take my stop of 1680 tomorrow one way or another. I already hedged it with next week's 1635 puts.

T.J. 9-9-13 Expect Unexpected

Market opened higher this morning. My expectation was that ES might retest 50MA and last swing high of 1667. People would be better wait for Mr. Obama's speech regarding Syria tomorrow. It acted that way until the news of that Russian proposed having Syria's chemical weapon under international's control. Then market sentiment changed to a more bullish one. ES ended at 1671 firmly above 50MA and Fib 62RT. It positioned ready to take the gap zone tomorrow, or may be even a gap cross the gap? However, ES is at top of narrow BB. The bigger picture looks like a huge head and shoulder pattern. It could be a fake break out as it has happened many times before. Also it may go up there to close the gap at 1680. Bears then will be comfortably start selling again.

I entered several call sells based on my early hypothesis. It appears I was bit too early and weighted more on the bearish side than I should. I have more call sells than put sells right now. Get to remember that selling calls is riskier than selling puts. I have lost a lot more in selling calls. I need to work on reduce call side risk tomorrow.

I have two SPY weekly puts based on 50ma and Fib 62 today. Didn't think of using a spread to reduce my risk.

T.J. 9-6-13 A Wild Day

It was expected to be volatile but with a big twister of Putin's speech. The job number was less than estimated therefore the market pushed up as I anticipated that bad job number would be good news for the market. As it happens often a news of Putin talking about supporting Syria came out when ES was near its upper trend line. Everything started dropping immediately. It was a 25 point drop within 1 hour. Even in the panic selling market still respected key support levels. The drop stopped at 1639, a CLVN and BB4/L with last two days' open and close. It bounced immediately as I was expected it would stay low for a while. I didn't release my put orders. I thought the down trend was going to stay for a few days. Any way it was a V shape bounce and The day end as a big doji.  I only got some put in the mid and a month end call 1710 outside of all time high.

My main task will be managing risk for the next two weeks since I am close to full load now. I have 6 calls and puts on both side.

T.J. 9-5-13 A Quiet Day

It's a quiet day before a possible storm tomorrow. ES has only 7 point range and it didn't break IB high nor low. It only occurs in 2% of the time according to FT. The market is waiting for tomorrow's job report for August. If the numbers come out bad the market may bounce because a bad job number could delay Fed's tapering QE3. ES is parked in mid ready to go either way. Many anticipate the markets are going to trend down if the number is decent.

I plan to establish put sell positions for the weeks of 13 and 20 tomorrow after the report and market showing a clear direction, not the initial swings. Plus, Friday is a good to get in to take advantage of time decay if the conditions are right for entering. Remember to be patience and control emotions. I exited out my 1680 calls as a risk control measure just in case the market rallies. ES touched Fib 78 and drifted down after open.

T.J. 9-4-13 Bottomed?

It was a trend up day after yesterday's down ward gap fill. It looks like a short term bottom was put in yesterday. I expected ES to test Fib 62% RT as this morning's price action acted like a trending type. I thought there would be a strong reaction by sellers after Fib 62 and gap filled. Therefore my action was selling calls. All of my call selling were filled before lunch. Buyers kept the price up between 1650-1654. It appears that my entries were too conservative. ES may test 50 SMA and Fib 78% tomorrow and stay in mid waiting for Friday's job report. Or it could come back to test BBM and Fib 50% which happen to be lined up. I need to manage my risk of 1680c in case a poor job report drive the market up to close the higher gap.

I missed some bigger picture context today regarding the potential of the up move. I put more weight in Syria risk of drop the market. It appears that I was a little over confidence of the market's short term bearish condition. I loaded call sells almost in full for the next two weeks. I may adjust my bearish positions and obey my rules.  

T.J. 8-30-13 Chaching Friday

It's chaching Friday again. All of my ES options are expired worthless with 100% profit. I sold both calls and puts. I was able to enter positions for each of next two weeks. Since the Syria situation is still hanging I reduced the size to two each just to take advantages of of the decay of the coming Labor Day long weekend. My discipline is improving. I waited until John Kerry come to speak at 1PM. It was some effort to hold my urge to enter a position this am.

My wheat put position finally closed. It took 44 day's for this $400 to decay but it was less than $1000 for margin. Percentage wise, it was a pretty good return.  One more corn contract need to be out next week.

T.J. 9-3-13 Another Week, Another Month

August was a great month for my ES and commodity options sells. I had an average of $762 per week for 4.5 weeks. My win rate was 91%. I am getting better at discipline and executions.

Market gaped up last Sunday night on the news of delaying attacking Syria. Monday was a half day for futures and the market kept a upward posture. This morning's open was an up thrust to the upper down trend line and the last CLVN before the end of the high volume area. It started selling at near of 62% Fib RT and weekly PP. I had a plan of selling options at this Fib level but it was front run by about one point. I didn't execute my SPY put well when I came back from a meeting with June's college adviser after 10am. At that time, ES was pushing down but I didn't think it would be able to breach the o/n low since it already broken o/n high. The odds of break both side is only 25% according to FT's study. I entered a sell order of $25 to exit my $80 cost position. I was supposed to add a put position at Fib 62 RT but I didn't even put an order in. The 162.0 SPY reached $50 high today as ES dropped to the low of 18 points. No plan is the plan to fail.

Microsoft announced that it would buy Nokia's cell phone business pre open and MSFT dropped 9% after open. My in the bag of 33 call is now under water once again. I don't have any clear rules for options at this point. I may have to reduce individual stock options until I have clear winning strategy.

I sold two positions of ES options for this and next week. I am nearing fulls size now. Get to watch and manage my risk now. It looks like attacking Syria is just matter of time since the leaders of Republican Congress are supporting such action. They scheduled to vote no later than next Monday. I need to sell some calls on price pop. My current call position is going to expire on this coming Friday.

T.J. 8-29-13 News Driven

Today's jobless claim came out better than expected and 2nd Q GDP was better as well. Market tested yesterday's low before open and pushed back all the way to Tuesday's gap open. I was totally fooled by the opening action thinking the good news could be bad for the taper watchers. I shorted ES in sim all the way up and had 3 full stop outs. With the hypnoses I entered a SPY 161 put for next week at open. It was also for hedging my call. My call was taken out on the way up and my put is now under water.

This week's pattern for ES has been morning drive up and pull back in the afternoon except the gap down in Sunday night. This may be an reflection of lack of confidence by market participants. The uncertain factors overhang and technical levels contain the market in an range.

It is very frustrating that my orders in both calls and puts didn't get filled. They were near but didn't reach my price targets. I am getting better at not chasing trade now I guess. I would rather be out of a position than in a position where I can't get out. I may not have a good trade next week if nothing comes to me tomorrow. It's OK consider the potential risk of war on Syria.

T.J. 8-28-13 Taking a Break

ES opened to test overnight low with 3 ticks breach and bounced back. It has been grinding up and broke overnight high and PP. This may be consider Fib 50 RT bounce I guess. It's still a inside day so far. I think it's taking a break from yesterday's big thrust. It also need to attract more buyers to build enough inventory before testing Fib 62 unless it break into yesterday's gap zone and close it. ES is trading between 100 and 50 SMA. It will be more clear on where today close at. It could be a waiting mode closing since people are waiting to see if the US decides to bomb Syria.

I designed a spread to take my yesterday's SPY call out when it reaches 50 SMA and buy a put at that level as well. None of them get filled.

I am still waiting for a new low test to enter my sell puts for next week. The Syria situation is like a 2nd shoe waiting to drop.

T.J 8-27-13 A Tons of Worries

News of Syria's chemical warfare drove the markets down overnight. There was a 17 point gap for ES at open. On top of the Syria situation, the end of QE 3 and fed debit ceiling are putting pressures on the market. I expected ES would have about 22 point range this am. It ended up reaching 26 and closed at Fib 50 RT area. There has not been a big bounce at this Fib 50 level. The next one will be Fib 62 RT at 1610 area with a weekly trend line. I need to plan my ES potion sells of next two weeks accordingly. Try to stay as far OTM as possible. I didn't have any fills for next two weeks except a small scalp of 1590 for this week.

My IWM put option reached target of 150% and recovered yesterday's early exit. I missed SPY's pull back today and entered a call at Fib 50 RT. I may exit this out tomorrow and wait for 62% level to try again. I need to exit MSFT at a bounce and re-evaluate it since it's falling back into the gap zone. The GE call is hopeless now. I need to stop blindly follow Joe's option twitters. Be selective and use my judgment.

T.J. 8-26-13

Monday is trend setting? ES moved up to near Fib 62 RT and BBD/M then started dropping at 3pm. There was a news about Syria' chemical weapon investigation. I find that often news come in at critical levels and time.

Grains had a huge up day on Pro Farmer's field tour report and weather concerns. I didn't know the report was released after hour last Friday. I thought it was release already. Obviously my wheat short was stopped out on gap up this AM. For the lack of accurate information I didn't reverse my position to long. It was a 25 point up thrust. Soybean had over 60 point move. I exited half of my put in corn and added a call sell above two resistance levels. It looks like the move is not over yet. Maybe I should have waited a day or two for exhaustion.

T.J. 8-23-13 Pay Day

It's Chaching Friday again. I get 1615 and 1605,1600 scalp position expiring worthless with 100% profit. It wasn't an easy week for the put options. With last week's gap down the down trend continued early this week. I had to exit out my 1625 position with a small profit. It looked venerable before Wednesday. This one was entered 2 weeks ago.

I entered a short for wheat since it matched my setup. Timing wasn't very good since it's a weekend. But have to follow my rules. While corn didn't come to my short entry level Pro Farm's field tour report may give corn a bearish tone next week since the production estimate is high. I increased my option price in hope to get out my bullish option of 450. This has been dragged for too long. Hesitating to cut losses is still my weakness need to work on.

I was so lucky that my MSFT 33 option was canceled by the exchange due to NSDX 's shut down yesterday. My order was filled this morning for a 230% return instead of yesterday's 25%.

T.J. 8-22-13 Resisting Temptations

As I guessed it yesterday that my wheat long was in danger because of the weak low and BB bands of 4h and 1 hr are narrow. I wanted to set up a reversal order last night so bad. Instead I resisted the attempt of reversing to a short again because of these narrow band pattern doesn't give a lot room to go either way. I want to see the market resolve itself rather than take a chance. I accept the loss and not let me revenge temptation to take control. I am glad I did it and so far the wheat is still in a choppy mode. I applied my discipline. That's the key. 

ES pushed higher overnight and added more upside after this morning's higher than expected jobless claim. As of this writing at noon it's up 15 points near yesterday's high. It's a pleasant surprise. All of my this week's puts positions are in good shape now. I was able to exit my next week's 1610 with a small profit too. I resisted my habit of moving the target around for a few more bucks. Good thing that I recognized such emotions and start to change such habit.  

T.J. 8-21-13 Fed, Fed!

Markets were waiting for Fed minute release today. ES was in a small range until the report at 2pm. It tested a new low and pushed up to the upper trend line and near yesterday's high. As most of us thought this was the turning point for the market to turn around the selling began. AS FT said earlier markets often come to revisit the crime sense. ES closed exactly to its after report low. It looks the correction is not over yet. ES is in between its 50 and 100 SMA now and not too far from Fib 50 RT which is at 1629 alone with 100 SMA. This level may provide a temporary support.

I am glad I exit half of my next week's 1610 position and entered one at 1580 to replace it. I need to take my risk off further since today's closing may bring more down side movement. Fed's report has a lot more impact on the market in addition to the technical pattern. It's a bear flag pattern now.

My seed oil and wheat both got stopped out. One was B/E and wheat had a pop and drop which put my reversal order in danger as well. Wheat is still above BBD/M and I will have to stick to my rules. But it's in the lower end of CHVA and the down trend is still intact. Be prepared for two stops in both direction. That's part of trading.

T.J. 8-20-13 Relief Rally

ES reached a new low o/n and bounced off of daily trend line. It tried to test yesterday's low after open. Buyers stepped in and pushed it up for 13 points. It never had any meaningful pb until it reached yesterday's high and closed at o/n high. I kept shorting it at several levels but lost 150 in SIM.

I followed my plan and exited out my 1625 puts with a small profit. I don't think the down turn is over yet. ES is closed at 50 sma and Fib 38.2% after today's relief rally. A Fib 50% retrace from June's low is at 1631 and 61.8% is at 1613. Market may push up a little more then push back to the two key Fib levels. A extreme level of Fib 78.4 is at 1590ish. I anticipate this down turn may last into September or October.

 Grains start falling today. Corn and Seed oil both touched their upper trend line yesterday. Corn didn't hit my exit target and I am under water again. I need to re access my plan if corn breaks yesterday's low.

T.J. 8-19-13 Don't Mess w/ Your Plan

ES tested CLVA between 1656 and 1651 in the morning. I thought it was going up further to 1660 test last Friday's high since it broke O/N high first. I thought ES would be able hold O/N low based on FT's stats that ES would break only one side of its o/n range 85% of the time. However it took the 25% of time and broke o/n low to a new low of 1642.

My plan was exit out my corn put sell position and ES 1625  put for this week. When the corn put price came to my target of 5.50 I started messing the order between 5.5 to 5.25. It was a very small amount but my emotions were high, fear of missing and greed of making few more bucks. I ended up moving it to 5.375 between bid and offer. It closed at 4.75. Another one was ES 1625 put. My plan was exit at 2.75 to take risk off since there was less than 30 point to strike. I moved my order to 2.55 and reduced the size to half. I ended up missed the fill which hit 2.70 and the position is under water again. FT has addressed many time that professional traders don't alter their orders if they plan didn't call for. I have a bad habit of altering my target based on my emotions. Two of my weak areas are 1, not honoring my stop, 2, messing with targets. Am I a pro and do I want to be a pro? Yes.

T.J. 8-16-13 Choppy Friday

It's monthly/weekly option expiration Friday. Market generally moves in choppy mode. I had to take a 2x stop loss of my 1650 puts and scale out my 1645 with smaller profit. Luckily it was still a profitable week. Most of my weekly options for stock and SPY are lost. It was bad timing and wrong bias.

ES hit its 50 ma today and temperately held. The reaction was not very strong. My guess is that the pb is not over yet. Fib 50 and 62.8% levels are below. My next week's position is under water now. I didn't get any fill for ladder up today.

Grains retreated today. I will wait for next week to see if I can scale out my corn puts even with a loss. Corn's down trend is still intact. Arlan is predicting corn to find support at 420.

T.J. 8-15-13 Bam!

Big drop happened overnight cutting through 1680 and 1671 support levels and opened gap down this AM. I expected a follow through drop last night but didn't anticipated that two major support levels were cut overnight leaving many traders holding their bags I guess. Most of my ES put positions were under water immediately. I was able to exit most of my 1645 position with a small profit since this position had a much better entry price. Although it was a force trade last week as I remembered. Lesson: I often have to pay a dear price for a forced or boredom trade especially with emotions such as fear of missing, etc.

I added two small FOTM puts at 1635 and 1615 in preparing for take a loss of my 1650 scalp. That one is in danger of being assigned since ES is less than 10 point away from it. My stop out rules really need to be enforced. 

T.J. 8-14-13 Cracking below?

ES pushed up to yesterday's VAH and crossed overnight high then dropped quickly. My hypotheses for today was up based on overnight vp stayed in higher portion of yesterday's VP and today's opening crossed overnight high. I tried to go long 4 times but most of them got stopped out in sim. My scalp of put sell at 1650 filled at noon for 55. ES finally cracked yesterday's low by closing. I was wishing washing for the entry with up bias until very late. Tomorrow is critical for the indexes. If the ES closes below 1671 then the gap below 61 will be in danger. If the gap zone get cracked by tomorrow or Friday I may have to take stops for this week's put options. I would buy SPY put tomorrow for some protection.

Most of my SPY and MSFT options end up losing money due to the choppy actions in the last few days. My long bias was crashed today and the SPY put had too much time decay.

T.J. 8-13-13

It's almost another Doji day. Bulls and bears are fighting in mid of the B band for over a week now. I am relatively safe for ES to go either way this week. I may add scalps of call or put for this week depending on the movement.

Grains couldn't hold yesterday's boost. Corn closed at yesterday's low. It is teaching me another lesson for my lack of discipline.

T.J. 8-12-13 Grain Report

The long waited USDA grain report came out today. It lowered stocks and production estimate for soy bean and corn. Soybean's price jumped over 40 cents and corn up 11C. I entered a corn put sell order in the heat of the movement. I made the direction of the trade right by waiting for the price break previous day's high and pull back. I also made mistakes in fear of missing the bus. I didn't give a far enough OTM for an entry to be safe. Instead I just simply added to my 650 position which is only about 10 point away. 2nd, I didn't use option's chart to get a good entry price. I left about $100 room there. I need to force myself stay away from my trade station during market's big events.

ES traded in a range bound today. It touched my lower trend line overnight and bounced to the upper trend line by end of the session. It was a methodical move in a slightly down trend. ES still under BBD/M. I may have to get of my 1645 position if ES can cross up the mid line.  It has 4 days and 40 points left. I wouldn't consider it very safe at this point.

T.J. 8-9-13 Friday is pay day

Another 100% profitable ES options week. ES is having hard time to push up and staying at 1681 to 1696 range for this week. It may break another balanced area next week. I have established positions 3 weeks out. It's a bit far out for the third week. I need to be more patient. I had a little fear of missing the boat since yesterday was a V shape bounce. Today it ended up closing lower.

On the other hand, grains continue to move lower. I am glad I exited my corn long position last night based on BB4 and BB1 squeeze pattern. I am still holding corn option position. Failed to follow my trading rules. I didn't form a scale out exit plan earlier. I am under deep water now and may go down further if Monday's USDA report turn out to be bearish. Rules, Rules! Without following my rules I can't be a professional.

T.J. 8-8-13 Pattern

Indexes tend to move in patterns during a several day period. In the last 3 days ES had V shape movements. I had 3 fills for ES put sales. The scalp of 1665 for tomorrow wasn't well planed for not recognizing the pattern. My entry was 55 but the price moved to 90 then fall back.

My play of TUMI earning was a disaster. TUMI reported a big miss and the price fall 12% this morning. Luckily I only had one call at 130 and it looks like a total loss. I missed MSFT's call entry yesterday and this AM at open. I chased it when it doubled from the low while not thinking about risk first. My underline thinking and emotion were revenge. Wanting to use it to make up for my SPY call/put spread. I have one week left to make both positions right.

T.J. 8-7-13 V Shape

ES dropped 12 points after open. At 1682 I was expecting it to have couple more points down to 1680 and set up several orders for next two weeks. However ES reversed at 1682 and made a V shape push and never retest the low. Most of my orders were only 10C away. It was very frustrating. Maybe I pushed a bit too edgy and wanting a perfect fill.

Grains have been sold on every bounce. Corn broke over night high after open and only got pushed to near breaking new low. Wheat had a new low this AM and recovered some late. USDA's progress report is expected to be a major event for direction of the grains.

T.J. 8-2-13 Lucky Day

The unemployment report came out was below the expectation. Luckily I was able to exit out my ES 1710 position with a small profit. It was a wrong trade driven by greed and lack of forward looking. I was only thinking about free margin and quick scalp. I was under water 3X of my cost yesterday.

Grains continue going down. It's in an oversold state now. I will have to take a stop for my corn position if there is no bounce next week.

July was a good month with 100% win rate in ES options and some profitable stock and options trades. It was over $4K profit.

T.J. 8-6-13

ES was down 10 points today as there was no any major news. It looks like it's ready to explore downward since 1700 was reached. It may need a pull back to build more inventory for another up leg or to play terrible August. I didn't have any fill today in ES because my targeted price not met. I will see how the price action will provide a clue for the market direction.

I tried to enter a type of spread in SPY. I had call filled but no put yet.

T.J. 8-5-13 None Event

ES traded inside of last Friday's range. No any trade in this front.
Grains continue their 3rd week decline. I am still in the corn put. Risk control is my weak part. Hold and hope may cost me dearly. FT71 shared some stories of big traders crash and burn due to failure of control their risks.

T.J. 8-1-13 Follow Through

Market reached new high today after this morning's better than expected jobless claim report. S$P touched 1703 and closed above 1700. Tomorrow morning's unemployment report is expected to provide more volatility. It's likely to push the market higher.

I didn't follow my Fed day plan completely yesterday. I was supposedly not to enter any ES option trade until there is a clear direction. I forgot there was a jobless claim today only thought the unemployment report on Friday. based on the assumption I was thinking I had enough distance for a 1710 call sale. I am setting an exit price for this short at 50. I may have to take assignment if the market pops after the report at 8:30. It's only 8 points away tonight.

T.J. 7-31-13 Fed Day

The GDP came out better than expected this AM to an adjusted 1.7%. I am not sure if it's using the new method of GDP calculation. Previous quarter was adjusted lower to 1%. After Fed statement the market pushed down, up and down to the hourly trend lines. It closed at yesterday's HVA and basically no break in either direction. The up trend is still intact. I had 2 scalp puts and 1 long for 2 days. I will win both side if ES don't break 1710 or 1645 by end of Friday.

I missed the entries of  ZC and QM long both of them didn't pull back to my levels.

T.J. 7-30-13 Waiting

ES tested both high and low of yesterday. It's clearly waiting for tomorrow's big news of GDP and Fed statement. I tried to enter couple of put sales to scalp for this Friday. Both 1630 and 1620 didn't get fill. It was somewhat impulsive when the market came down to test 1677. I am glad they didn't get filled. I should wait tomorrow's close to see which way the market is going. Get to remember last May's loss and the three day rule.

My Wheat Sept contract closed today with a 95% profit. On the other hand all 3D printing stocks are down today due to DDD's miss on 2nd Q report.

Tomorrow is a big day.

T.J. 7-29-13 Another Doji

The market seams waiting for GDP and the Fed on Wednesday. It formed another doji today. It has stayed in a bull flagging and balanced pattern for the entire last week. I entered a put sale of 1650 ME for a quick 3 day scalping.

Grains didn't move much today. Expecting a bounce from over sold condition? We will see.

T.J 7-26-13 Chaching Friday

ES tested 1671 which broke the overnight low for few ticks this morning. I was expecting it would go further down to 1766ish but it didn't. 1671 apparently is last week's low. The market tested last week's high and low this week. It essentially stay in last week's range and formed a weekly doji. Next week is Fed meeting's week. Market is expected to have a big move up or down. ES still has not tested 1700 level yet. I didn't have any fill today despite I placed several orders for the month end scalping and next week's regular options. I didn't push much to get in which feel boring and frustrating. I should stay out of the market until after Fed meeting on Wednesday or the day after to see a clear direction. Got to remember my big loss in May's Fed meeting.

Grains appear stabilized today. My corn puts are still under water. All the calls are profitable. Let's see if next week will bring some relief.    

T.J. 7-25-13

Market went down to close 1672 gap overnight. ES pushed down after open then started pushing up. I missed this morning's pull back entry due to waking up late. I need to remind myself this is serious business.
I finally had a fill of sale for 1625 2 weeks out expiring Aug 9.

Grains is in their 3rd day of sell off. I didn't see any meaningful pull back for me to get on. If corn continues the slid I will have to take a stop for my Oct 450 put.

T.J. 7-24-13

Market took a dive from this morning. I am not good at trading such trend days even in SIM. I took long at 3 different levels and they all got killed.

All of my put sales didn't get fill. I didn't chase any of them. There always is tomorrow. There are two gaps below. 1675 gap fill is only few point away. After hour's earning reports were surprisingly good. FB, BIDU, TRIP went up more than 10%. I caught a call option on TRIP. It should be a good 100% reward tomorrow. My SPY call had one at 40% fill but the other one is under water now. I will have to make a decision tomorrow.

T.J. 7-23-13

Many pros expected to see 1700 this morning since the overnight high was only 5 point away from the psychological number. As it often happens the market is counter intuitive and not granting people's wishes. ES started dropping in the first hour. I think the big guys are just trying to shake out the late longs. They don't like too many people dragging on their coat tails. Another explanation is that they need more inventory above.

Grains had a big sell off day. It approved I was wrong again. I exit out yesterday with higher target. I still need to work on my discipline. I had a better than b/e stop and should have let it run. I just couldn't overcome the fear of losing the profit since I had a loss in wheat the same day. I also had a perfect reversal entry to short wheat yesterday but I raised it too far and didn't get fill.

T.J. 7-22-13 Monday

The trend continues. ES touched a new high of 1693. A fib 23.7 target is at 1702 and BBD top band is near 1710. I scaled out 1/3 of my 1710 call sale for a 56% gain. I need to scale more out in case of a quick push up.

DB had a stop out on wheat today. I upped my corn short target and exited at closing. The two positions ended with a small $80 profit.

T.J. 7-19-13, Surprised Again

 The market drifted below yesterday's low overnight. I thought it was forming a head and shoulder considering Google and Microsoft was hammered after their earning reports. S&P chopped most of the day as expected on an options expiration Friday.  It started pushing up in the last two hours and closed to a new high of 1690.

I had a call sale filled after cash closing for August 2, 1725. It's two week away and may be endanger if the market act relentlessly pushing up like in mid May. I will manage the risk next week.

I have only one scalp of ES options this week. Missed a 1695 call sale yesterday considering it was too risky. There was not a decent pull back this week for me to get in a put. Well, I didn't force any trade and only to wait for what market would give to me. Better be safe than sorry.

T.J. 7-18-13 Pop and Drop

ES popped right off the gate and all the way to 1688 this morning. It then flagged most of the day. This type of price action is hard to trade since there are not much swings. After closing, both Google and Microsoft missed their earning estimate and futures start falling. Tomorrow is Friday and monthly options expiration day.

I didn't get any fill today because it didn't reach my call selling target. Get watch for the down side risk as a pull back is expected. A short term down trend is possible.

T.J. 7-17-13 Again

ES has tried to break to the new high again and it get knocked on the head again. Mr. Bernanke testified in Congress this morning. He basically provided the same message regarding QE3 tapering.  ES pushed up to the new high couple ticks and fall down again. S&P is still in a flag pattern or could be a double top formation. It should unveil itself in the next few days.

My SPY call options didn't do well. I changed exit targets too often. The 1680 call made some money but the 1690 is losing it. I need to exit out most of my positions tomorrow.

T.J 7-16-13 Unexpected

Almost every pros thought that we would break out to a new high today when looked at the price action yesterday. My plan was to react to the new highs today. After the open, ES tested 1 tick above o/n high and started falling. It was totally unexpected. It appears that the ES formed a double top from May 21. However, the up trend is still intake. ES closed right below yesterday's low and positioned to go either way tomorrow. I guess it's waiting for Ben's testimony to Congress tomorrow morning. No one want's to fight Mr. Bernanke.

Expect unexpected!

T.J. 7-15-13 Monday

The market has maintained its uptrend without any meaningful pull back. It's only about 5 points away from the all time high reached on May 21. Any price target above that it's anybody's guess.

I set couple call sale levels but so far nothing has been filled. It's riskier to sell calls base on my past experience. I am waiting for the prices come to me. I got a fill of 1710 C for 280 after hour.

The bulls have been very cautions. They take small steps each day. ES shopped 1 point short of 5-21 high. It may be building energy to break out this balance area. YM and TF both set new highs last week already.  

T.J. 7-12-13 Chaching Friday

It's cha ching Friday again. My 1515 puts sales and 1605 put scalp look like going to expire worthless. ES has been in a 7 point range testing over night high and low all morning. ES may be not ready to take out a new high this week. There are d top above and a big gap below. Next week may have some volatile movement if nothing happens today. I may not have any position for next week.

There are no any grain trade triggered from DB today. ZC and ZS are down and ZW holds well.

T.J. 7-11-13 After Ben's Speach

After Mr Bernanke's speech after the closing ES popped about 15 points and was hanging up there until today's open. It chopped for several hours within a 6 point range. I had couple price levels to sell calls for a quick 2 day scalp but they never get filled. I was able to held myself to lower my prices. I am glad that I put risk control as my first consideration. ES is likely to break the high of 1681 for a new high since YM and NQ bother made it through.

There is always another trade will come alone. Just be patient.

T.J. 7-10-13 Fed Min Releasing

Fed meeting minutes release this afternoon and the markets reacted up and down. ES tested 1553 and O/N low. It settled back to mid again. It's another doji like day.

I sold a put of 1605 for a 2 day scalping of $120, or roughly 0.6% of return on margin (ROM). Also sold some 1575 7/26 monthly ES to leg in. It may be a bit too close. I will have to manage the risk of it. I am out of Aug ZC put for a 40% profit. It was in danger for a while.

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Selling Put Options My Way: Hi all, Well this time I am really back and lookin...: Hi all, Well this time I am really back and looking forward to posting my trades, answering question and getting the Blog back to producing ...