Friday, April 4, 2014

From Chopping to Dropping 4-4-14

It wasn't a bad job report this morning. 192K new jobs in March was a little below expectations. Market reacted positively earlier. ES touched a new high of 1892. When it got pushed back into yesterday's range I thought it was going to be a choppy day. I started to get some ES orders ready for the next two weeks. When it breached yesterday's low I started concerned. I was measuring a 18-20 point day. My early entries were under water. Even a far out order of 5.75 got hit. I reminded myself to step aside not to do more until near closing. But I didn't follow my thought. I kept looking at the charts and thinking about how many orders I could enter with my available margin. I entered 2 more orders ES orders in the afternoon. The bigger mistake was earlier today. When I was entering ES orders in AM I thought about it's still too early to tell the type of the day. Then the fear of missing took over. Especially when there appeared a strong rejection on yesterday's low. I thought I may not get anything if that was it. I sold total of 10 orders of 12 contracts in both IB and S5 account. The last one was filled after cash closing. Good thing I didn't right was reduced size of each order. But it's still clearly over trading. My price selections were too aggressive influenced by Veenmr1's entries on Twitter. I pointed out this error yesterday but didn't even think twice today. I broke my rule of entry in 2 STD.

I sold some VIX calls at 20 and 19. They both are in 90% probability of OTM. They have only a little over 1 week left. I should be OK if there is no major crash next week. Russell is the weakest one in indexes. I need to take my 112 put spread out next week to reduce risk. I thought about it yesterday but didn't do it. Now it's slightly under water but the trend is not in my favor.

Grains came down some but didn't hit my exit orders. I will take some wheat positions out early next week with further time decay. The risk is a pop up if USDA's condition report come out bad on Monday. There were some rains gave wheat drought condition release but not enough according to Arlan.

CL stayed in $101 range, LVA. It looks like it may claim up to HVA of 101.5 - 102.3 area. Will monitor my risk here.

No comments: