ES crossed Monday's high after European market open. US market opened with a out of gate drive up crossed HVA above. On the 2nd hour it started falling on Ukraine valence news which I didn't know at that time. ES pushed to 2 ticks before yesterday's low of 1809, then buyers stepped in. From there it started a V shape bounce until it made a new daily high before closing. It was very technical and well calculated move, of course in the hindsight. I tend to believe a short term bottom is in baring from any geopolitical event. ES is sitting slightly above Fib 61.8% RT from the top down. It may be range bound in the LVA of 1828 to 1860 for the next couple of days since this is a short week. Markets will be closed on Good Friday. Most of my ES positions look safe for this week. I will try to exit out some NTM ones tomorrow to reduce risk.
In the grain front wheat and soybean had a strong up day. Wheat is up 25 points on Ukraine's tension and poor crop condition rating. Some wheat grow area had snow over the last two days. I missed the opportunity to exit my last holding of 680 for wheat. I thought I was safe when it came down to 660 and I became greedy. I kept lowering my exit prices. Now May wheat is at $7 and I am 20 handles under water. I may add one on another leg up and prepare to roll over. I entered a bear call of 730 trying to have a scalp but was too early.
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