Grains bounced across the board for about 1% supposedly in short covering ahead of USDA's Grain Stock Report tomorrow. I took advantage of it exited some of my underwater positions and bought more puts. I had a total of 25 trades in grains. It's the largest trading day I have had. I booked a lose of over $21K and built my margin back to near $100K. I feel much safer now. I am not eager to take the rollover positions. I probably would wait after USDA WASDE Report on Oct 10th. The wait may not be comfortable but would provide a better odds for my recovery. This has been the biggest loss I have experienced. There many lessons need to be absorbed. I will regroup to dig myself out of the hole.
My plan for tomorrow's Grain Stock Report: I will continue to exit my bull puts and sell bear calls in corn and soybeans if the report gives a surprise to the upside. I may also buy more puts in corn and sb. The picture of wheat is not very clear as it's affect more by the globe market. In a likely scenario of the downside, I will hold my puts to squeeze more profit but roll a small number of bull puts further out. The bigger event is the Oct 10 WASDE. I may exit out some far out of money puts between the two reports.
Indices are holding up so far against seasonal. ES and S&P had triple bottoms. I was expecting the double bottom to be broken today. All of my bull puts in S&P didn't get filled since the bottom held. I would consider to exit my S&P 2015 spread if we don't get a break down in next couple days. Tomorrow is the month and quarter end. It's likely to be a window dressing day. I can always get back in if the price move up further.
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