For the past week, indices are getting weak but still in up trend and bull flag pattern. Market is waiting for FOMC next Wednesday and Alibaba IPO in next two weeks. Scotland's vote could affect the market short term as well. My ES allocation is pretty much loaded and don't have much room to add on due to my heavy positions in grains. I will wait until Wednesday to see the directions of the market.
In the grains front, WASDE upped grains production estimates and pushed the prices further down. The worst is yet to come according to grains' seasonality and current harvest projection. I will continue to add short positions on any pull back and rollover my underwater contracts. My results for the week:
Right:
1. Monitored my risk in indices. Had ES and RUT credit spread working. I was patiently waiting for price to come to me. I kept reminding myself that I don't have to get fill today and had more time to see where is the market going.
2. I held my urge to fight the down trend of grains. Instead I added puts on any pop and before the WASDE.
Wrong:
1. I still could not correct my bad habit that I would close my eyes and jump in a trade despite my instinct of cautious and timing.
2. I didn't follow my rules of taking stop in my wheat 510 bull puts. I had orders in place before WASDE but didn't enforce to close it before closing of the day. I still have the mentality of hold and hope. Things are normally getting worse when I try to avoid the pain of taking a stop.
My main goals for next week are:
1. Monitor my emotions and recognize them;
2. explore my instincts against certain actions. Hold off my actions when I have doubt about my actions.
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