FOMC 12-17-14

My plan:

Indices futures held at lower portion of yesterday's range overnight. All eyes are on FOMC. It could break the market either way. ES is park right on Fib 38.2. The next down target would be Fib 50 at 1940/1947 for ES and SPX respectively. I plan to roll my SPX 1930 from Dec 26 to 31 since it's over 3X now. I will try to reduce my risk before FOMC announcement and won't trade in the 1st hr after the announcement.

Grains moved up overnight on Russian's wheat export restrictions. Wheat retested yesterday's high. It may firmly break Fib 50% RT for the year's entire move. I will continue to reverse my underwater positions. Corn and soybean were up slightly overnight with wheat. soybean looks to break down and corn may follow soybean or wheat.

My executions:

Indices steadily moved up in yesterday's range before FOMC. ES/SPX pushed to yesterday's high after the meeting announcement. The fact that ES/NQ couldn't close above yesterday's high presented a possibility of retrace back to the lows. Something I need to watch for. I set a rollover for SPX 1930 to year end 1890 didn't get filled until the announcement. I forgot to adjust my price from $30 to -$30 as I planned. A mistake costed $60. I also exited ES 1955 and 1950 this week in S-5 just in case a retest low in the next two days. I replaced them with 1900 and 1880 respectively for the next two weeks out. I sold a RUT bear call of the year end to make a Iron condor in my personal acct in IB. The ones I put in Etrade didn't get fill. My IWM calls started to working out since RUT/IWM broke last three days' highs. I scaled out one at 30% proven to be too early. I will close it before this Friday. Over all, I was calm and clear in handling my indices positions while recognizing my emotions.

Grains are not pretty for me. Wheat surged over 20 handles and I feel like to through up. I am totally underwater in my bear calls. Corn and soybean are holding up. I will wait to see what's in tomorrow's export report. I closed my soybean call options while thinking about waiting for tomorrow. Let's see how much it will cost me on this one. I will continue to reverse my wheat position from bear call to bull put. I missed a fill today. I was stressed out with the wheat situation.