My plan:
Indices opened without a gap down and held on the edge of CHVA. It has been steadily moving toward 2012-15, overnight high and mid of last Friday. The market may still retest the low or hold and chop until Wednesday's FOMC. Are we going to see the pattern of sell off in the closing repeat today?
Grains are still in slightly bullish mode. Wheat is against its seasonality with rumors of Russia might limit its wheat export.
My tasks of today is to manage my risks:
A. Take stops base on my rules and current market conditions. Replace my stops with FOTM positions to recovery my losses partially.
B. Reduce my margin amounts by closing some excessive positions.
C. Lock in profit in grains.
My executions:
The same pattern played out again for indices today. Tested up early then sellers pushed it down to new low. I remember it was like last FOMC they won't give up until the day before or the same day of FOMC. We may see another push down tomorrow or move to 2030 area to be nurture. I didn't have any filled today. I didn't want to barge to get fill. I missed the early push up to exit my ES and RUT positions. The hesitation cost me to miss my plan in indices. It was too early to tell if we could have a pull back.
Wheat and corn continued to push up only to give up some at closing. Soybean was down but in range due to a not very strong export data. I closed couple soybean Jan bear calls to raise my margin. I realized that I have been taking losses and rolling up my wheat bear call positions. I need to come up with a plan to reduce my positions and stop the losing cycle. May be to employ risk reversal whenever I have enough margin to do it.
No comments:
Post a Comment