Volatility Persist 1-30-15

My plan:

Indices futures drifted down overnight. European markets are slightly down cross board. ES is already in a 20 point range. The lower high pattern continues. I will watch to see if yesterday's low of 1982 would hold. Target down is at 1970, then 1950 area. My target above is 2020, then 2030. I will try to close some positions to raise IB margin level in IB acct. I may sell ETF and credit spreads in Etrade and IB personal account.

Grains held overnight. My main task is to reduce size and risk.

My execution:

ES/SPX moved erratically today. It traded in a small range within yesterday's value area. Then, it tested both high and low of yesterday in the last two hours. Although it was considered an inside day but closed to the down side. The down trend is still intact. I sold a March wk 3 IWM 97 bull puts and a March wk 1 RUT 1020 credit spread in personal acct. A ES Feb wk 3 1810 bull puts was filled while I left early to school. It was intend for a rescue of 1850. It was an unusual day for the month end. I wasn't quit prepared for it.

Grains pushed to new lows across board only recovered partially before closing. Corn had a good bounce while wheat held $5 level after testing 497. I didn't have much activity except closed one corn Mar contract.

I will review this week and month tomorrow.

 

Follow Through of FOMC

My plan:

Indices futures held closing lows in a tight range overnight. A formation of bear flags. ES appears coming back to check the break out area of Jan 18. Despite of the big sell off ES is still in its balance area unless it breaks 1975, then 1955. I will not add positions to IB main account due to margin decrease caused by QCOM earning report. Will look for opportunities in Etrade and personal accts for credit spreads and indices ETFs.

Corn and wheat continued to move down overnight. Soybean seams holding better. USDA's export report showed strong numbers in corn and soy meal but didn't provide much support to the prices. Corn and wheat both hit Fib 23 target now and in oversold territory on daily charts.

My execution:

ES retest 1982.5, the low of Jan 16 break out point and bounced up to 2019. However it didn't take out yesterday's high. It's still in a lower low and lower high daily channel. The further downward test is still possible unless it close above Wednesday's high of 2040. As planned I didn't not trade the IB main account. I tried to close a couple of positions but didn't get fill. I sold 1/2 sets of RUT Mar wk2 1270/80 bear calls for $80-85 to form Iran Condors. By the way I did sell a March wk 3 1290 bear call to make a strangle in IB main account.

In grain complex wheat and soybean bounced while corn slide further. Wheat held at $5 mark for now. I am not sure if it's over yet. I sold a May 460 bull put for $625 to add back a deficit position left awhile back. Also made a risk reversal combo for May 510 BTC, sold May 500 put and 590 call to b/e.

Awaiting for FOMC

My plan:

Indices parked in a waiting mode. All eyes are on Fed FOMC announcement today at 2pm. I will not place any new trades in this front except exiting risky positions. I must wait for indices to test both sides and establish a clear direction. Best trading opportunities may come in tomorrow.

Grains dropped overnight again. Wheat played out the BB bang squeeze in 120 min to the down side. It hit the $510 area as I expected but quicker. Corn is down to $377. Soybean is at $968 and ready to break to a new low. I will try to close my bear call positions and wait for a bounce to reverse under water positions. I want to add some bull puts so badly. I should wait for a confirmation of bottom turn before doing so.

My execution:

After FOMC announcement, indices didn't react strongly on either side. I waited both side tested in ES and thought it was a plain statement. I started placing orders mainly in RUT credit spreads. I had a IWM March 99 bull puts placed at top of the chart in the morning. I forgot about it on the sell off of closing. I moved out my order in Etrade after my personal IB got filled. I wasn't as disciplined as I liked to see today. Although I waited for a hour after Fed announcement. I didn't anticipate the sell off would be so severe. Luckily I only entered couple of RUT credit spreads due to constraint of margin concerns. I may have to take a stop for my Feb 2, bull call of 1880 traded yesterday.

Corn and wheat had big sell off too. Corn and wheat lost 1.5%, 2.1% respectively. I tried to close couple wheat bear calls and reverse bull puts but no fills. I am glad I followed my plan to wait for a sign of bottom out before selling any bull puts.

 

A Sudden Drop 1-27-15

My plan:

Indices futures dropped to ECB announcement levels overnight. Pre-open ES, NAT and RL are down 25, 63 and 14.4 respectively. Is it the revisit of the break out area or the continuation of recent down trend. So far it appears both in play. Despite the large drop, the indices are still in balance area. I will wait to see if we are going to break down further or stay in the current range. I think it's the later since FOMC is tomorrow. This may be the big guys clear deck again. I shall be trading far OTM in indices today.

Grains recovered slightly overnight. Wheat tested the edge of CLVN at $518 o/n and moved back to yesterday's range. It may be building a bottom here if a retest low or a bread down met with strong rejection. My plan is to continue managing risk, reduce size.

My execution:

ES retested ECB break out area in the morning. My hypotheses were played out. It would go down to test the ECB b/o area and ramp up to be ready for FOMC.  But I didn't execute it well as I was not patience and confident enough to see the last thrust to the ECB low. I placed two ES bull puts and moved prices around to follow every small move of the ES. I ended up get filled early. My original prices based on chart analyses would have been perfect. Of course market doesn't play perfect each time. My rule, however is to wait for the market come to me. I later entered another ES bull put for Feb week 2  at 1880. I was too eager to make a quick trade and fit a strangle. Other than ES, I sold a RUT March 1010 put based on Karen's setup. Many of my RUT credit spreads didn't get filled. I will have to go back to Gaven's book to see how can I trade better with credit spreads.

Grains gave up overnight gains by closing. Wheat tried to pull itself up earlier as I was hoping to see a bottom building. It gave up all the gains at the closing. Now I get to expect another leg down to 510 area in next few days. I placed couple risk reversal orders but no fill. I am OK with corn and soybean positions so far. Only one wheat Mar $680 bear calls closed today.

A Late Monday

I got up later this morning and missed planning session this morning.

Indices futures gaped down on Sunday night but recovered overnight. ES closed its gap earlier in the session. It slowly moved into last Friday's range and popped to high of the day after cash closing. It's now at the high end of this CLVA again. Looks like people are positioning for FOMC this Wednesday. It will likely to make new highs once it close above 2069. I placed so many orders in SPX, RUT and IWM but no fills. I only closed SPY Feb 213 bear call to take risk off in case we get a craze run to the upside. There is another one in Etrade hasn't been off yet.

Grains were mixed today. Soybean moved up while soy meal sliding. Corn and wheat moved toward lower side. Wheat broke a new low today and close at $520. It looks like has more to go. Base on its seasonality it would turn up by late Jan or early Feb. I am still holding my positions try not to adjust them at the worst time. Corn looks building a base if the recent low can hold. I am OK in my positions for now. I will try to let my March contracts expire unless I have to roll over.

I will focus on managing risk in indices tomorrow. FOMC is this Wednesday. It looks like people are positioning for a pop.

Weekly Review 1-24-15

Quote of the Day: THE PAIN OF SELF DISCIPLINE WILL NEVER BE AS GREAT AS THE PAIN OF REGRET. -- Brett Steenbarger

How can traders achieve high levels of consistency?
The answer is by turning trading practices into trading rules.  Rules are what turn best practices into habits--and habits are what give us consistency.  Contrary to popular conception, discipline is not about forcing yourself to do the right thing.  It's about turning right things into habit patterns.

It was a relatively calm week for me. The book still shown a lost of $1.7K but I closed some profitable positions in other time frames. It's a long process on the road of recovery. Insist on self discipline and rule based consistency is the only safe way to get there.

I participated in the Skype's KST group and learning some new strategies. However I didn't trade earning strangles with them. I am straying with my own trading products. It worked for me this time as part of self discipline. They took couple big losses.

My tasks of next week:

1. Continue to clarify my trading rules in indices trade.
2. Post my trades in the Yahoo KST group as part of self discipline and make my actions more accountable.

Friday 1-23-15

My plan:

Indices futures have been tight and balanced in overnight session. With ECB's QE in motion the market may flood with new money. The overall trend is positive. But there is a concern for Greece again. As for today, the down side is 2145, then 2128. The upper side is to get cross above 2060 HVN, then 2070. I will look for opportunity to sell puts on p/b and exit couple bear calls. If we see a break to the upside, I will look for a safer level to sell calls.

Grains went down overnight attempting test recent lows. There were several large cancellations in soybean orders. My plan is the same as last several days: manage risk, take profit and reduce my size in wheat and corn.

I should be patience and wait for market to show its hands before act.

My execution:

ES traded in a small range relative to recent volatile moves. It tried to break down and up most of the day but didn't get any result. It finally came down in the last two hours of the session and closed at 2043, the low of the day. I didn't have any bear calls sold as SPX and RUT didn't break to the upside. I only sold 1 ES of Feb 2 at 1850 for $320. I tried a Karen's set up in SPX for March and a shorter time frame one for RUT. I will give them another try as we may get more pull back next week. I see two conflicting channel in up and down at work. I should be flexible to change my bias base on what market is showing next week.

Grains recovered some of losses from overnight. Overall there were no big movement. I didn't do much today except one profit taking order got filled in March corn. I am waiting for a pull back in wheat to roll or reverse my underwater positions. Otherwise just let them decay.  

ECB Effects 1-22-15

My plan:

US equity futures popped up then faded back after ECB's announcement. ES almost hit Fib 62.8 RT at 2049 and pulled back at Fib 50 RT, 2036. It's trying to break the recent down trend. The up trend will resume if ES close above Fib 50% and 50 MA around 2040. We may see a retest of 2013 in the CLVN.
I will manage the risk in the upper side. I have a bear call of 2020, Feb 2. I may scratch it, wait for a better entry.

Grains had almost no move overnight. I realized that some of my locking profit made no sense if they were in the near by strikes and the same expiration period. It's wast time and money. Because if the price came back to the same levels the losses would be  the same anyway, Just like my wheat put 515, it hit 3x loss anyway. Such practice was emotional driven as I was looking for winners for psychological comfort or easy my fear of losing. I will continue to manage my risk and size but won't repeat such mistakes.

My execution:

The much anticipated Q/E from ECB was released. Market sold off at open to close the gap, then popped up. It broke out in the last hr. ES closed above Fib 68.2 and firmly above 50 SMA. It's right at the top edge of current CLVA which has been thoroughly auctioned this month. It looks ready to break out. I sold one SPX Feb 20 bear call at 2150 for $135. It was based on the rules of engagement at 1SD, outside of BB top band and over 90% POTM. I feel it was still too early and the ideal entry should have been at 2160. I made a little bit fitting. This is a bad habit I need to correct it. I also sold a RUT 2160, Feb 3 with the same specs and a little fitting in price.

Grains pulled back in a small range as the US dollar surged to a 11 yr new high. I didn't have much to do at current levels. One each of my closing position orders in wheat and soybean got filled. I rolled a soybean bear call down from May 1140 to Mar 1060/70 based on seasonal trend numbers of my put/call positions.
I need to deal with these underwater positions in wheat tomorrow and next week.

Waiting for ECB 1-21-15

My plan:

Market is anticipating ECB's stimulus policy announcement early tomorrow morning. It could be a market mover. With that in mind US indices could be choppy today. I may not want to do anything with it today unless it's far out of dated.

Grains titled up a little. I will continue to manage my risk, and reduce size in wheat. Remember not to over manage the positions.

My execution:

ECB released a plan to purchase 60 billion Euro bond per month and equity markets reacted positively. It will have a formal announcement tomorrow morning. Expect a large swing for many markets. I was a little confused about ECB's process. I thought the announcement was done so I started to plan some entries. I had only one fill for SPY Feb 1, 185 naked sell for $0.38x6.

Grains were range bounded. I don't have any trade except a close of corn expiring position overnight.

Choppy 1-20-15

My plan:

Indices futures held Monday's high (a half day) overnight so far. FT71 disregards such data. ES has touched Fib 38.2 RT on this Dec-Jan down slop on daily. From volume profile stand point ES has auctioned this CLVA and in a balance zone. It can go either way. I plan to fill in indices ETF or spreads on both up and down in smaller accounts.

Grains continued to test lower. Wheat and corn look like may get a bounce from the charts. My plan is the same as last week, continuing to manage risk, reduce my holdings while locking in profit.

My execution:

No trade in indices. I tried to add ES, RUT on both side but none filled. I was thinking there was a possibility of sell off since the AM selling was strong after ES hit Fib 38.2 RT pre open. Then it held at 1997. I was busy trading grains. I didn't want to sell calls since SPX/ES were just turning up. RUT closed in red.

Grains turned up before closing after their early sell off. I made one rollover and one risk reversal in wheat. With the pop, the rollover looked working better than the risk reversal from put to call. I also locked in $1K profit on another roll of July 720 to 710 calls. I also reversed a Mar 400 corn to April 355,350. I am not comfortable with Mar 400 calls. They can be punched through easily. I also reduced positions in corn and soybean. My margin is at a relative safe level of above $50K.

Taking a Break 1-19-15

My plan:

US equity markets are closed for Martin Luther King's birthday. Indices futures open until 1pm EST. I will not trade anything but catch up some study and try to set up a Friend and Family account in IB.

Grains market is close until tonight.

No trade was done today.

Weekly Review 1-17-15

It was a volatile week indeed in both indices and grains. The Swiss Central Bank's decision not to hold a guarantied exchange level really spooked the forex market and spill over to equities. Many funds have had to raise money to cover their margin requirement in Euro which dropped 30% for a moment when the decision was announced. I logged in a small gain ($660) with only one RUT holdings to expiration due to tight margin. I exited rest of positions for other trades. Next week is going to be interesting with grains options expiration. I am still underwater so far due to grains rollovers.

No major mistakes happened this week. Emotionally I have had fears of grains snap back. I have been actively locking profit with any 50% gains. Some of the trades didn't make much sense. Couple of the risk reversals were the 2nd or third times already. I need to have specific rules using seasonality and stop out measures. I need to overcome the fear of losing and be patience especially when the positions are OTM and in expiration month.

I learned couple more options strategies in KST chat group. The options ratio with a debt spread and an additional position for premiums is inspiring.

A Day of Relief 1-16-15

I didn't write down a plan today. After Trade Bite I went into market and totally forgot about it.

Equity market got a relief rally after 5 straight down days. ES tested 1970 overnight. The low didn't get retest during the RTH. Today's relief rally  in ES and NQ didn't take out yesterday's highs. It's a Friday before a long weekend and options expiration day. Wild price actions were expected. I sold couple SPY calls, ES and RUT calls appeared to be early. I was looking for the time decay of the long weekend. In fact it won't matter much for Feb's expiration dates.

Grains tried to push up after a good export report. Corn and soybean stayed in yesterday's range. Wheat gave back a little gains and closed at low of the day. I had one risk reversal to bear call in corn and one lock profit in wheat from Mar 610 to April 610 2:1. It didn't make much sense to reduce 1 contract but further out a month for the same strike. I need more specific rules.

Volatility Continues 1-15-15

My plan:

Indices volatility has expanded into overnight. The three majors went down to retest yesterday's lows at 4 am as Swiss Bank announced stop buying Euro. They recovered thus before US open. ES is above yesterday's high while NQ is near the high. I will manage my risk mostly in indices ETFs if we hold 1980. Watch for the pattern of last couple days: morning up and afternoon down.

Grains moved up overnight. All three are above yesterday's high and in their CHVA. I plan to move Mar corn 400 calls up in b/e for safety. Be aggressively locking in profit in wheat and corn. I need to reverse some wheat bull calls to release price pressure.

My execution:

Indices futures played out to the down side. ES lost another 1%, 20 points and closed to the low of the day. I placed several naked IWM, SPY and RUT credit spreads but none got filled. I had one ES 1780 Feb wk1 filled at 525 in IB before closing. I compared ROM % of SPY, SPX and ES, SPX and ES come out better when there is enough margin to trade and hold for longer time. ES dropped another 12 points after hr. I will wait to see what overnight will play out. Tomorrow may be wild as the Friday of January expiration.

Grains sold off most of the day but pulled back somewhat at closing. I didn't corn and wheat profit locking and risk reversal. I learned a hard lesson about locking in profit and risk reversal. I have been some what greedy when there were less than $100 premiums ($2.00 price) left I still roll them up or out. The better way would be just close the positions and look for another opportunity to cover the closing cost. My positions in wheat March, May 530 puts are good examples. I rolled them over within $2.00 prices at the time. I had to pay 3-4X to reverse them when the trend changed. These practices pretty much wiped out my early profits.

Everything Gaps Down 1-14-15

My plan:

Futures have been falling overnight. ES is right back to last week's low of 1985 before a small pop to CLVN of 1995. Ranges and volatility are up on daily bases. I will watch the risk and stop levels of my indices positions. Be ready to take stops. I will look for bull put spreads in RUT and SPX with further down side in mind.

Grains were down overnight as well. It looks like the long waited down turn has began. I will lock in my profit, reduce sizes and reverse bull calls.

My execution:

Indices traded similar to yesterday's pattern. They moved up in early morning, pushed to a new low by mid day, retraced back late in the session. The difference is that they moved back to day's high. Today's low in ES was a few ticks below Jan 6's low before the break out. It appears an retest of the break out is done and the entire CLVA has been auctioned up and down. We may see a move up from here to the upper channel of this down slop. A possibility of another leg down to 1950ish which is a CHVN and Fib 50 RT weekly. I closed a ES 1900 this week in S-5 for $10 to leg into Feb W1 1800 for another $250 premium. I am prepare it for a possible stop out of 1850 just in case. I have one more bullet left in S-5 for a possible sell off. I wanted to fire it today but decided to wait to see if this bottom is for real. No other orders were filled today.

Grains ranged small today. They all parked at the lower end of CHVA. I had no new trade in grains except a close of corn 410 this month. Wheat continues pressuring my positions. I will try to reverse some near money positions if we get a pop on tomorrow's export report.

Grains to Bounce? 1-13-15

My plan:

Indices futures moved up somewhat overnight. ES is pushing into yesterday's thin area. The current LVA is 2020 to 2060. On the up movement I will try to sell bear calls in SPY, SPX & RUT to make my positions in strangles. On the push down I will try to sell credit spreads. Watch out for the risk of another leg down to 2009 and 1999 levels.

Grains moved higher. Corn and wheat took out yesterday's highs. Did they form another bottom? It's possible they are building it. Soybean is still weak and may explore below. My plan is to lock in profit in wheat and reduce my holdings when I can. I will continue to manage risk in corn and let soybean decay.

My execution:

Indices shoot up right off the gate open. It was an open drive and broke yesterday's high in the first hour. Then the bears came in by noon. It ended giving up over 20 point gains and closed below yesterday's low. Clearly it's a bearish engulfing day. However in the bigger picture and context of volume profile ES/SPX are still filling in this low volume area unless 1990 and 1970 give in which would be a repeat the pattern of last Oct. I followed my plan but didn't accomplish much. All of my bear calls didn't get filled since I wanted to see where it close today. By noon I lowered my entry prices in SPX and RUT but never got a pop strong enough to fill me in. I had one set of SPY Feb 175 naked bull put filled in Etrade when the price was near low of yesterday. Now it appeared too early. Let's see if the sell off continues tomorrow I will have chance to sell again or wait for more down side.

Grains moved down further with corn reversed from yesterday's pop and closed out of its balance area. My corn bear calls got a big relief and wheat bull puts are under pressure now. I will start risk reversal in wheat when and if we get a pop. It's also time to lock in some profit in corn and wheat bear calls.

I was fairly calm. I started to post my trades with KST group in Skype. It help me to think clear my reasons to put on a trade.

Exploring Value Area 1-12-15

My plan:
Equities have been volatile for several days. Bulls and bears are exploring directions and accepted value area. ES popped up last night then pulled back to Friday's closing. For Es today, we are looking at 2020 area below to fill the gap or 2000 for retesting this CLVA for the next couple days. If the lower area hold then we will see ES to move up to challenge 2058 CHVN again. I will try to sell some credit spreads in ES and RUT.

My main focus before 2pm today is on grains. Expecting the USDA report make grain complex volatile with possible daily limit which I haven't seen for a year. My plan is to reduce risk before the report at 12. I wrote down some trade ideas last night. The downside in wheat is my major concern.

My execution:
ES/SPX dropped to the mid of current CLVA. My first target of 2020 was achieved and closed near it. We may have some more down side to explore. The earning season is here as AA reported today with a upbeat tone. Market may not go too wild assuming no major disaster news. CL is down to $45 now. This is a drag to many corp earnings. I don't have any trade in indices today as I spent most of my time working on grains.

Well, the much anticipated USDA report didn't make any stop limit. Soybean had the most swing of 40 points, down 3.5%. It didn't break the support of 1008 area but closed at the low end of current balance area. Corn actually reversed up after USDA lowered its yield and ending stock. Wheat was down less than 2%. I had a total of 15 trades in grains today, including profit closing, risk reversal before the report and rolling profit. I followed my plan in the most part. I got wheat risk off right. Corn didn't play out. This is the most traded day I remember.  

Weekly Review 1-11-15

The past week was the 1st full week of trading. Indices had large swings. SPX locked in its 2nd week of red and closed right at 50 SMA and mid of BB mid. Are we going to see the same pattern of last Sept and Dec of a head fake to the upside? Market will show its hand early next week. However the long term overall trend is still up. I will stick to it until otherwise. It was a small week for me with a $770 profit. Off the two trades expired one was a loss recovery from a stop loss from S5 earlier. I had many profit lock trades in grains in varies expiration dates.

I wasn't aggressive enough in reducing my grain positions. I rolled over and reversed many contracts to lock in profit but I still have too many positions in corn bear calls and wheat bull puts. I will try to reduce some on Monday before USDA report to reduce my risks. It's more than likely I will get hit with any large swings after the report since I am positioned in both sides. So it's better to exit out some positions then decide what to add back when the direction is set.

No major errors were made this week. The emotions of frustration and anxiety are still present. Remember it's a numbers game and decisions are just business decisions.

I am going to join a small chat group for  Karen's trading style. It's a progress long overdue.

Better Job Report 1-9-15

My Plan:

US NFP report came out 252K vs. 240 expected. ES erased its early losses and appears ready to challenge the next balance area if it close above 2068. Hypo 2 is that it may stay in the current range continuing to fill this CLVA. The street may be worried the Fed's willingness to raise rate with lower unemployment rate.  I may try small positions in bear call above upper edge and sell puts in any pull backs.

Corn and wheat pulled back somewhat. Trades may be adjusting their positions for USDA Report next week. I will try to reduce my positions especially in wheat and corn. I am balanced in soybean.

My execution:

The 2nd hypo played out as the indices dropped after testing overnight high. Is it a retrace before the resuming up trend or retrace from the sell off to target Fib 23? I will watch for it next week. Pros may digest the job numbers and taking action early next week. I sold one ES for Feb 1 and 6 spy for Feb 2 to make that a strangle. I tried to sell couple more RUT naked as it has a better margin return rate.

Grains retraced up mostly. Corn and soybean held most of the gains. Wheat went back to negative territory before closing. I messed up the USDA Report data. I thought it was next Tuesday but failed to check and confirm it. It actually is going to be Monday at noon. I didn't close my positions aggressively as I planed due the mistaking reporting date. There was only 1 wheat profit taking which actually added one more bear call at 625. This report may produce bigger price swings than the last three months' as the yields and inventory carry over numbers are final. I will try to close more positions on Monday morning to reduce my risks. I can always to get back in my positions instead of stood in front of a storm.

Is The P/B Over? 1-8-15

My plan:

ES moved up about 15 points to 2035 area overnight. There is a old gap at 2047. It appears that the bottom of this pull back is set and a IHS is forming unless we see the same trap of sharp reversal than sell off again in Oct. We will see it today or tomorrow with job report. The normal auction of this low volume area continues so far. I will look for small safe bear call entries and watch for any attempts of retest the lower area.

Corn and wheat continued their low testing while soybean held up well. Wheat had a better than expected export report but price action is not reflecting it so far. Watch for double bottoms or break down in corn and wheat. My plan is same as yesterday.

My execution:

ES/SPX shoot up right after open. It held at the end of CLVA of 2056 for a 1.5% gain. This is also Fib 62 RT for the entire down turn and mid of B Band. Sellers pretty much disappeared today. I only had a Feb-6 SPY 215 bear call filled. Get be careful not to fade the trend. I would rather to add puts on any pull back. Tomorrow's job report may give opportunity for add on.

Grains continued the down turn. I reduced one bull put in wheat and corn. Need to do more tomorrow and Monday in case a sell off to hit me on a 3rd run.

A Expected Bounce 1-7-15

My plan:
Indices futures bounced to challenge Monday's low. After a 5 day selling it's expected to have a relief rally. ES is back into CLVA of 1989 to 2051 area. We are not out of the woods until we close above yesterday's high of 2025. I won't sell anything until we have a close above yesterday's high or another leg down to 1970 area.

Grains held up in a small range overnight but opened mixed. Corn retested the break down point then falling. Wheat and soybean stuck in their CHVAs. I will continue to lock in profit and reduce risks.

My execution:

ES/SPX didn't break yesterday's high but closed at high of the day. It appears building energy to break out if overnight holds. I didn't had any new trade in equity front except closed a ES 1850 this week to release margin. I will try to look for opportunities on call side with the rule of safety first.

Grains had mixed results. Corn and wheat fall after retest the break down area. Soybean held up well and formed a IHS. Tomorrow's export report and the extremely cold weather may give us clues of the trades interpretation. I rolled up 2 wheat bear calls to lock in some profit. No fill for corn orders.

One More Down 1-6-15

Indices futures didn't do much overnight. ES/SPX appear to have more down side to explore. ES 1990 remains the lower target. If we retest yesterday's low and hold then expecting it to fill the CLVA up to 2060 in next several days. My plan is to enter credit spreads and ETFs in Etrade and IB personal acct. I will watch the margin in the main acct. I will wait for market showing its strong hand before entering orders.

Grains continued their recover overnight from yesterday's move. Corn and soybean look strong pushing back to balance area.  Expect in range bound near term into USDA report next Monday. My plan is to continue to adjust my positions, lock in profit and reduce risk and sizes.

Equities closed down for the 5th consecutive day. ES/SPX hit Fib 78% daily and 38% weekly then bounced for about 20 points. The sell off before closing made the hope of bottom faded. RUT accelerated selling up to 2% today. I couldn't get any RUT credit spread fill at the price levels I wanted. I sold some naked IWM in IB personal and Etrade. I sold one more RUT bull put for Feb based on Karen's setup. I don't want to take up too much margin by selling SPX. I will close one of my ES in IB tomorrow to get in another naked SPX put if the SPX push down further.

Grains chopped most of today. I rolled a July wheat 710 to 720 bear call to lock in my profit. Also rolled a set of soybean May 920 bull puts for a small profit and to get in a lower level in case of a sell off after USDA report next week. A big winter storm is going through mid west and north. The fear of winter kill condition may push grain prices up or hold any sell off for now.

Repeat of Jan 2014?

I woke up late on this Monday of first full trading week. S-5 chat room had technical difficulty and no Trade Bit either. Indices had another sell off day. It's the 4th consecutive down day. ES had over 32 point, 1.6% off at one time. It closed a gap left on 12-18 and bounced off Fib 62% daily. The low profile area extended to 1990 from composite profile point of view. I placed ES orders on expected Fib 62% touch for 3rd and 4th week of Jan and got filled. RUT didn't have as steep of sell off as SPX. My RUT credit spreads didn't get filled. But I sold one set of IWM naked. It has a better ROM rate. I didn't get into Karen's set up since I don't think the sell off is over yet. I may get better entries by waiting a little longer. I have to watch my available margin carefully in case the sell off goes beyond expected Fib 78% RT.

Grains moved up sharply today. All of them crossed last Friday's highs and challenging or retesting the broken down area. I locked in about $1000 profit in wheat bear calls before they disappear again. My concern is about corn bear calls in which many positions are still too close to strikes. I may be forced to take losses and rollover again. My positions in soybean are balanced and no immediate threats for now. I plan to do some minor adjustments to lock in profit when there are more decays.

I was mostly calm and calculating my entries today. It helped from yesterday's new year planning. I will review it from time to time.

1st Trading Day of 2015 1-2-15

Indices futures moved up overnight. ES is back into the last CHVN. It looks like a pull back before another thrust down unless it can get back and hold the last balance area of 2075-2088. I will try to sell some bear call credit spreads in 2-3 weeks and long some naked using Karen's style.

Grains are unchanged from their break down. I will continue to lock in profit and reduce risk.

Equity went down on this first day of 2015. ES hit its Fib 38% rt on daily and had a small bounce. The push up was rejected. It closed at 2048, below previous balance area. It appears the pull back is not over yet. It may have to fill the the CLVA of 2048 to 1998. RUT also had reaction at its Fib 38% RT and closed on top of its HVA. I didn't have any fills despite many orders in place. I will wait for the next leg down if it happens.

Grans continued sliding. Wheat and soybean both down around 1.5% and closed at the low of the day. Corn popped back to the low of last trading day at closing. I had positions closed cross the board. I get to worry about my bull puts next week.  

Weekly Review 1-1-15

This week brought me a small profit of only $890 with a ES stop out of $635 which should be recovered by 2nd wk of Jan. It was a lite week since there were only weekly expiration. It doesn't mean I was not busy. I had been busy managing my grain positions mostly, lighting up positions, locking up profits, reversing positions to prepare for grains 2nd shoe drop which hasn't happened for more than two months, only showing signs in the last two days.

I have learned more about Karen's trading system. I started to formulating my own trading rules based on her styles. I am combining her longer term entries with my shorter term trading. I jointed a Karen style discussion group online. It has been helpful.

I repeated another mistake by entering a RUT credit spread without negative sign. I have not exited the order without taking a loss yet.

My tasks of this weekend and the following week:

1. Review Dec trading and lessons;
2. Review my 2014 performances and plan for 2015;
3. Review and revise my trading plan;