My plan:
Equities have been volatile for several days. Bulls and bears are exploring directions and accepted value area. ES popped up last night then pulled back to Friday's closing. For Es today, we are looking at 2020 area below to fill the gap or 2000 for retesting this CLVA for the next couple days. If the lower area hold then we will see ES to move up to challenge 2058 CHVN again. I will try to sell some credit spreads in ES and RUT.
My main focus before 2pm today is on grains. Expecting the USDA report make grain complex volatile with possible daily limit which I haven't seen for a year. My plan is to reduce risk before the report at 12. I wrote down some trade ideas last night. The downside in wheat is my major concern.
My execution:
ES/SPX dropped to the mid of current CLVA. My first target of 2020 was achieved and closed near it. We may have some more down side to explore. The earning season is here as AA reported today with a upbeat tone. Market may not go too wild assuming no major disaster news. CL is down to $45 now. This is a drag to many corp earnings. I don't have any trade in indices today as I spent most of my time working on grains.
Well, the much anticipated USDA report didn't make any stop limit. Soybean had the most swing of 40 points, down 3.5%. It didn't break the support of 1008 area but closed at the low end of current balance area. Corn actually reversed up after USDA lowered its yield and ending stock. Wheat was down less than 2%. I had a total of 15 trades in grains today, including profit closing, risk reversal before the report and rolling profit. I followed my plan in the most part. I got wheat risk off right. Corn didn't play out. This is the most traded day I remember.
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