My Plan:
US NFP report came out 252K vs. 240 expected. ES erased its early losses and appears ready to challenge the next balance area if it close above 2068. Hypo 2 is that it may stay in the current range continuing to fill this CLVA. The street may be worried the Fed's willingness to raise rate with lower unemployment rate. I may try small positions in bear call above upper edge and sell puts in any pull backs.
Corn and wheat pulled back somewhat. Trades may be adjusting their positions for USDA Report next week. I will try to reduce my positions especially in wheat and corn. I am balanced in soybean.
My execution:
The 2nd hypo played out as the indices dropped after testing overnight high. Is it a retrace before the resuming up trend or retrace from the sell off to target Fib 23? I will watch for it next week. Pros may digest the job numbers and taking action early next week. I sold one ES for Feb 1 and 6 spy for Feb 2 to make that a strangle. I tried to sell couple more RUT naked as it has a better margin return rate.
Grains retraced up mostly. Corn and soybean held most of the gains. Wheat went back to negative territory before closing. I messed up the USDA Report data. I thought it was next Tuesday but failed to check and confirm it. It actually is going to be Monday at noon. I didn't close my positions aggressively as I planed due the mistaking reporting date. There was only 1 wheat profit taking which actually added one more bear call at 625. This report may produce bigger price swings than the last three months' as the yields and inventory carry over numbers are final. I will try to close more positions on Monday morning to reduce my risks. I can always to get back in my positions instead of stood in front of a storm.
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