Thursday, August 20, 2015

Bear Is Back 8-20-15

My theses and plan:

US indices moved down overnight on weakness of globe markets and cruse oil. It's a gap down at open.  ES, NQ are still within their current range while TF/RUT are below their weekly range. My targets for today are as follows.
ES: below 2053 O/N low, 2046 last seen of crime, 2038;
      above, 2066 yesterday's low, 2075 gap fill;

RUT: below, 1189, last seen of crime, 1183, next CHVA;
         Above, 1198, low of yesterday, 1203.7, gap fill;

I will be conservative on selling RUT puts, I will pick couple of 2nd puts in SPX. I would sell call on a meaningful pop.

Wheat held above $5.00 overnight and my last wheat puts for Aug was closed after open. I will see which way the market will pin on expiration tomorrow.

My execution:

Wow, what a sell off. All of the major US indices were sliced 2% or more. My ES and RUT targets to the downside were punched through for more than 10 points. I added couple of puts spreads in SPX and RUT around noon as I thought it was another one percent day. I also made a mistake of selling Oct 2 SPX 1800 by looking at earlier expiration day. It got filled above my price. I also added 2nd set in SPX and RUT for Sept 2 and 3. My SPY Sept 3 186 naked puts for scalp was proven to be too early also. I sold it at $46 around noon but it went to high of 74 with volatility above 18. At one point my margin went near 10% left. I had to close a SPX 1 put at $2.7 to raise it. I may have to close more tomorrow if the sell off continues.

My order to close wheat for Aug was filled not too long after the opening. I will see which way the trade will pin on expiration day tomorrow.

I will focus on raising my margin and reduce my risk tomorrow. The selling may not be over yet. We may be looking at a 8-10% correction.




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