Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Fed Minute 8-19-15

My theses and plan:

Indices futures pulled back to VPOC of current CHVA overnight. Market may retest Monday's breakout area while awaiting Fed Minute this afternoon. All indices gaped down at open. My targets are:
ES: 2093 (gap) and 2098 above;  2075 and 2063 below;
RUT: 1214.3 (gap) and 1217 above, 1201 and 1192 below;

I will stay out indices option selling until 30 min after the release of Fed Min. I will spend time to work on my wheat and corn positions.

Corn and wheat are holding up but no drastic price actions yet. I have one wheat position left for this month to be exited. I will double check to make sure no any other positions left in my holdings.

My execution:

Indices went through a N shape path with Fed Mins boosted a 1.5% down day to b/e briefly, then gave most of it back. ES/NQ and RUT closed below their break out points of Monday. However, they are all within their current balance area with somewhat bearish tones. I had 8 indices spread orders got filled. Some calls and puts were closed during the swings. I had couple of new, 2nd puts positions filled at closing.

Corn and wheat were still range bounded. My 470 wheat put was closed. I rolled over my wheat 490 with 50% profit. There is wheat 485 puts left which I found during my double checking positions. I will closed it tomorrow.

Volatility is up. I need to be more conservative. Be ware of seasonality of late Sept and Oct which often bring corrections. I may consider to sell more calls for that period when market pops.

No comments: