Weekly Review 11-28-15

It was a range bound but holding up week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. SPX held up well. RUT broke up to cross 1200 mark. Both are positioned to break the later Oct high or drop on the re-test. Too bad I have to leave next Tuesday. All of my positions are rolled to Jan 2 & 3 so I can deal with it when I come back.

It was a profitable week of $2K. I reduced some near the money calls to improve my risk profile. Most of my puts went into expiration worthless. My net liq/margin ratio is above 50%.. VAR is below $30K. I will buy more protections on Monday to reduce naked positions.

Tighten Lose End 11-27-15

It's the day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday. I closed the last SPX bear call of 2090 for 50% profit on the day of expiration. I sticked with my plan and didn't change my exit price. It wasn't the best but I avoided a lot of price fluctuation since it was near the money.

I sold an ES Jan 3 put at 1800 as part of my plan to switch from SPX to ES. I will try to switch out my SPX positions on Monday before I leave for China.

Greed and Fear Cost A Lot 11-25-15

It was a side way on top day. ES/SPS held yesterday's upper range all day long. RUT advanced another day and reached to the top of its current CHVA at 1198. I had 1195 call of this week which I thought was safe two days ago. I set an exit order at $60 for my IBP but lowered it to 30 when it was near 60 yesterday. Then RUT turned around and never looked back. It got ITM today. I had to roll it out to January 3. It was a greed at work. If I calculate the cost of my greed and fear in actions It could easily add to several thousand dollars comparing with maybe few hundred dollars I saved. I need to be more mechanic from now on.

I rolled most of my ITM calls in SPY, SPX and RUT to January 2 and 3 today since it's the last full trading day of the week. The last two days I collected about $3K premiums in rolling positions to January with more uncertainties. I have to wait for the market to pull back in order to get paid. And I will.

Holding In Side Way 11-23-15

ES/SPX traded in side way again into this Thanksgiving week. ES has been trading around 2084, the CVPOC. We may see another attempt up then short term traders may take chips off table before Thanksgiving break. I closed 2130 this week's bear call and 1130 RUT puts. No other orders were filled due to the small range and low VIX. My goal is to continue reducing my positions before my trip to China. I plan the roll the rest of ITM positions to January monthly exp so I will hand them when I came back. I plan to switch my SPX ITM to ES. According to some people it's better use of margin. I need to do some comparison tomorrow.

Risk improved to a relatively comfortable level today. Net liq/margin ratio is above 50% and leverage is at  33.

Weekly Review 11-21-15

Indices turned around starting from the bullish engulfing on Monday. SPX/ES erased all the loss of last week and back to 2090 again. It's likely setting up a traditional Christmas rally. It may not be a straight up though.

My account ended with $4K realized again for this week. It was due to all of the puts were out of money and couple of ITM calls got closed as well. However many of my calls are ITM and margin is on the call side again. I have 25 bear calls ITM which I had to roll them to next week and some to Jan 3. I am break even or slightly profitable overall this yr.

I need to have a clear plan of what systems to trade. Right now I am mixed with Karen and Tyler style plus my own twick of wide spreads. However there are no specific size of each trade and overall position size. I am still trading in shoot off hip style. I may use this trip to China to clear my head. and specify my trading size.

OPEX Day 11-20-15

Bulls have been persistence and won't give up much ground. ES had a 14 point range day barely closed a down gap.  ES/SPX 2100 is insight now. The bullish engulfing pattern worked out this time.

With the 5th up days in a roll I didn't get a chance to close any of my SPY bear calls. I rolled total 25 calls out to next week and January 3 according to my plan. I collected additional $1700 premiums while booked this week's losses. I may have to wait for the uptrend to turn down.

Risk parameters improved as positions coming off line. Net liq/margin is at 57% for the first time this month. Cash is above $150K again. Leverage is not up slightly to 36. I guess it's these bear calls without enough long calls in hedging.

I will review this week tomorrow.

Base Building 11-19-15

It was a small range day. ES/SPX had less than 10 point range. ES held up around VPOC of 2080.  The break down point of early Nov was tested. ES/SPX are at a critical point of directions. MACD has lower weekly and higher daily. It's hard to tell which way it's going. Giving the seasonality we may see a pull back then leading to an attempt of new high.

My plan was carried out successfully. I closed 3 near the money calls and rolled all of my in the money calls of SPX to next week. It wasn't perfect nor free of anxiety. I was focusing more on the main objective instead of trying to catch a top or bottom. The last positions was closed after cash closing and few minutes before the settlement. It was hard to deal with MM as they tend to hold the prices to the last minute. I will work on SPY calls tomorrow.

Risk figures improved as positions came off. Net liq/margin is at 45% for the first time in Nov. Leverage is 33.

Is the Market Welcoming Rate Hike Now? 11-18-15

To my surprise it was a drive up day. We didn't see any meaningful swing or pull back even before Fed Minutes release. The reaction immediately after Fed release was wait then pop. It appears no fear of rate hike anymore. SPX and RUT logged 1.6% and 1.58% respectively. ES is back to composite VPOC of 2080 now. There may be more upside of the holiday rally.

Today's move made more of my calls ITM. My plan was to take off positions on both side. I was only able to take one RUT call out and couple of puts expiring tomorrow. I added more longs of next week to reduce margin and prepare for rollover. It was a day of frustration and indecision. I didn't have an exit plan for different scenarios. I thought it was a choppy or down day since market was at an inflecting point. When market didn't play out my scenarios I didn't have a plan to adapt to it. Now couple of promising call positions are ITM. I have to roll out more calls tomorrow and take less profit. I overloaded SPY calls and they are all in the money now. I will have to roll them out on Friday and reduce my number of calls.
I have to be decisive exiting my positions tomorrow. Set my target and don't worry about what's the best prices I can get.

Risk numbers improved except leverage went up 0.5 point to 3.5 again. I should have enough fund to roll out my ITM positions with $57K available funds.

Awaiting for FOMC Minutes 11-17-15

Indices took a breath from yesterday's surge. ES took out both high and low of overnight range. It was in an exploring mode to discover directions or clear deck for tomorrow's FOMC Minutes at 2pm. ES/SPX closed in mid of current range which can go either way. On the other hand, RUT gave back all of its gain from yesterday. It closed at lower range of B band and CHVA with a HS pattern.

There were five trades today. Only one of my orders,  RUT 1190 call were filled before closing. The other four orders were long calls in SPY and RUT to cover naked calls since my margin was shifted to the call side this morning.

Risk conditions improved. Available funds are at $47K. leverage stayed at 31. Percentage wise the margin is still at 25% of my net liq. It's far off my target of 50%. I hope to get much better numbers with expiration of this Friday.

I will try to take out more positions on both side tomorrow. We may see a bigger swing after the release of FOMC Minutes. I will set 25-50 profit targets for these near money positions.

Another Bullish Engulfing Day 11-16-15

Like many, I was expecting a down day after the terrorist attacks in France last Friday night. Futures gaped down 0.5% on Sunday night. The selling of ES was rejected at 2000 last night. ES/SPX opened in the lower range of last Friday. My account was low in available fund and under margin pressure with some naked puts across all traded assets. My plan was to reduce margin with all means since it worried me the whole weekend. I was over exposed with only $5K available before open. I started to sell calls and buy long puts in the morning. After a rollover of Nov 4 1980 put to Jan 3 1820 the numbers improved.

I over traded today with 21 trades. Other than 4 of the 21 were closing positions the others were new positions and heavily on selling calls. I took on too much vega risk after SPX broken Friday's top. Now I am under pressure on the call side as some of positions are near the money. I placed orders to close them at small profit. I need to pay attention to puts too. Today's rally may be a relief rally of the over sold conditions from last week. I have noticed the engulfing pattern had not worked well in the past. The daily head and shoulder pattern is still in place. I will try to close positions in both calls and puts to reduce Vega risk.  

Risk figures improved today. Available funds is at $44K and leverage is 32. I need to double the available margin to 50% to reach my goal. So my accounts can withstand an unexpected event which could happen any time. I can't rely on luck for too long.

Weekly Review 11-14-15

It was the worst down week since the August mini crash. SPX and RUT lost 3.5 and 4.3% respectively. They may have further to go after Friday's LOD close and French terrorists attack after hour. This could be a 5-10% correction while the rate hike nearing.

It was a good week for me as most of my bear calls were unwinded and turned into profits. I closed most of bear calls with profit and closed out of the money puts in SPX, SPY and RUT. My short term scalps turned into problem again and I had to roll out most of them. Get to remember the rules and lessons. Despite the reduced sizes the risk factors remain high. It shifted to the put side with some naked positions. I tried to buy long puts to make them vertical spreads but wasn't successful as VIX kept raising. I bought one SPX 1790 put of next week in about $200 away for $60 instead of $20.

My plan is to reduce the put side risk. I should buy more long puts and close short puts even with loss to insure the portfolio stays in safe zone. I can sell more calls to cover the losses of puts. I will explore the margin impact if I switch my positions to ES which requires less margin. We could face some level of panic gap down due to the French terrorist event. I must be prepared but not panic.

A Dark Friday of the 13th

Indices continued to slide. SPX/ES couldn't lift itself up after a mid morning try. RUT went positive for awhile which I thought it was leading the pack up on this weekly options expiration day.

It had been a better experience in closing and rolling my expiring positions than last week. Most of my calls were closed with huge profit and recovered from last three weeks' rolls. I pretty much followed my plan. I notice my anxieties and took breaks to calm myself down. I calculate my profit targets and executed my order instead of wanting the best outcome which I won't have any control over.

My risk is on the puts side now. VIX is above 20 now. I have several naked puts left which I tried to buy cheap long puts to reduce my exposure. These far OTM puts are getting expensive as VIX is way up there. I had to pay $60 to buy a 1790 put while SPX is closing around 2020. That's a $230 distance. I sold some SPX and RUT calls but they didn't make a dent on margin.

The Bear Flag Played Out 11-12-15

Siemens and Macy's earning reports added the fuel to the gap down this morning. The bear flag pattern played out with Fed's speakers hinting of rate hike in December. Indices were slowly dripping and fall off cliffs before closing. RUT, SPX shredded 2% and 1.4% respectively. VIX is above 18 and indices closed at low of the day. We may see another leg down tomorrow. There may be wild swings on the expiration Friday.

I had to roll my rut 1160 to next two weeks. I was forced to get less premium as my expectation of later afternoon relief didn't happen. Even the out of money position of 1150 didn't fall and I had to pay $50 higher to get out after cash closing. MM was playing tough ball. A lesson leaned not to nickle and dime with near the money positions on expiration day. I have more positions in SPX and SPY needed to be closed or roll tomorrow. I should start early with ITM ones, perhaps with spreads in ES after 1pm.

Risk figures improved as the positions closed. The pressure switched to put side which is more dangerous. I will try to revise it to the call side tomorrow. Despite of increased net liq and available fund the VAR is still too high ($96K). The number of positions is too high, especially on the put side. I must deleverage further by reducing puts and adding calls tomorrow.

A Bear Flag? 11-11-15

SPX/RUT attempted to move back their previous balance area but got knocked down in the afternoon session. It looks like a bear flag pattern for both of them. There may be another down leg if the pattern plays out. Also the up swing today played out to Fib levels and pointing to downward too. However both indices are still in their CHVA so they may not break on either side tomorrow. There are several Fed speakers tomorrow which may influence market actions.

My RUT bear calls for this week were closed. Also sold couple puts in SPX, SPY and RUT. The margin is on the put side now. It looks like I may be able to reduce 1-2 SPX calls if they ended OTM this week. I will close my near the money RUT puts tomorrow just in case it ended too close to the money.

Risk factors improved somewhat. Leverage is at 41. Margin rate is still too low at 23%. Net liq increased about $5K. With positions expiring this week the levels may be better as long as I don't add too many positions back. I need to bring my available funds up to 50% of my net liq.

A Day of Going Nowhere 11-10-15

It was a range day of the lower part of yesterday. ES/SPX pulled back to 50% RT from last Friday's high. It's either a 50-62% retrace before the next leg or end of Fed day reaction from last Wednesday. SPX and RUT are back into the last CHVA. It could set up a back to go higher. We will see in the next couple of days.

I closed couple of puts for this week as planned. The action didn't reduce much of my leverage and switched margin to the call side again. My risk measures are still high. Leverage is at 47 and available fund is below 30% of net liq. I may consider to switch to ES for any of January contracts. It require less margin and can be traded around clock. I have to find the differences of SPAN and Portfolio margin. Some people in the chat room said SPAN is actually better.

The 1st 1% Down Day of the Month 11-9-15

It was a follow through of Friday's job report. Market sold off after open and accelerated until early afternoon. SPX and RUT were down more than 1.6% mid day. Daily MACD is about to cross to the down side. I started to sell wide put spreads early in the session. I pick some fairly close strikes like 2050, 2020 of SPX for this week and next week. I think I was driven by frustration and revenge for the last 5 weeks' up swing. I didn't even wait for the first 30 minutes to see the market direction.  I plan to exit out of these positions tomorrow or the day after. Get to recognize these emotions and stop acting upon it.

Collected 0.16% ($2360) premiums today. Risk parameters improved some. I reduced 1 call by roll 2 to 1. Margin is still on the call side. It may change soon if the market continue to move downwards. I have to avoid to open any positions for Dec since I am going to travel to China. I may sell some next week for January.

Weekly Review 11-7-15

Indices ended the fifth up week in a roll. With couple down days at the end of this week I finally got some relief for my ITM bear calls. Bulls are still in control this week. They bought on the dips despite the daily lower lows and lower highs for the last two days. RUT caught up and just retested the August b/d point. It could lead the pack up or falling back at this critical point.

The week had a small, $1.2K profit with continued rolling ITM bear calls and collected $36K, 0.25% cash. I rolled all of my ITM bear calls out to next week till end of month. I am only using Tyle's system for my underwater rescues for now.  I was able to reduces 3 of my calls (30% of IB portfolio) to deleverage in the last day of the week as it was barely out of the money.

My main task for next week is to deleveraging. Need to figure out my max call/put ratio on risk tolerant bases. My leverage level is twice (62) as much as my safety level and margin ratio is more than 3 times higher than what should be. I must be conservative on adding puts except to reduce margin on call side.

A Blow Up Job Report 11-6-15

The Oct job report was 271K vs 181K estimated, a big surprise to the upside. Futures sold off as the good news is bad news. It was orderly move during the RTH. ES moved with in current CHVA. Buyers stepped in during the afternoon session and recovered all the losses. VIX fall back to low 14s now. RUT actually moved up while other indices are struggling. It's leading the pack now. As I suspected bulls wanted to explore higher or new highs before the December Fed meeting.

I rolled all of my ITM calls until the end of the day. Rolling the vertical spreads were much harder with less premiums. I had to widen my spread to 8x and 3 weeks away in ET to bring in a small premium of $50. I was able to close my 2100 calls with a small profit and reduced 3 calls. The rollover brought in $2500 premiums net base on Tyler's approach. I need to understand and follow his practices closely.

My risk profile is still too high. Positions are heavy in the call side during this 5 week surge. I need to set a fixed number and ratio for my puts/calls. The leverage is at 62, twice of my allowed level. Available margin is at $24k, 16% to my NLV after this week's cushion expired. I must work to bring this levels down early next week.

Awaiting for the Job Report 11-5-15

It was a wider ranged choppy season. Market explored up and down and ended slightly to the downside. SPX closed right at 2100 and on the upper side of its current CHVA. However there is a possible HS on daily forming. It's all depending on the job report and how trades interpret it. My guess is there is still enough time for SPX to make a new high before Fed's December meeting and possible rate hike. Santa's rally may come early and end early this year.

No matter what directions tomorrow's report may take I have to rollover all of my ITM calls. I will try to deleverage through closing some calls. I will close or reduce the three 2100 calls and buy some FOTM long calls for next week.  My current positions made me very frustrated. I must stick to the end and let the math work. Watch out for my size and risk.

Had only one trade today. I closed the expiring 1990x3 puts after cash closed. My purpose was to reduce the exposure fee and leverage. It turned the margin to the call side again and reduce the available fund by about 9K. I will add couple more puts tomorrow to change the scale.

A Sigh of Relief 11-4-15

Indices pulled back a little today on Yellen's testify in Congress regarding possible interest rate hike. SPX was down 7.5, resting on top of CHVA. It's either basing for a new high or further down a bit before the job report on Friday.

I sold couple wide spreads in SPX and RUT puts to improve my Delta and cash also formed IC in ET, ETP account.  I still have not figured out a way to deleverage my calls except switching margin to put side by adding puts. A possible way out is if my SPX 2100 would be OTM or close to b/o on Friday.

I plan to work on ET's roll over tomorrow. I will call the support first to see my margin options first.

Frogs in Warm Water 11-3-15

The party continues after yesterday's surge. Markets normally take a breath after a surge without any major event or news. ES/SPX surged to 2010, 2018 of the last high volume area. They are less than 1% to reach a new high while NQ already there. It looks like the trades want to see a new high way before year end.

I feel like a frog in warm water of a slow cooking pot. The heat is increasing on my holdings. My NLV is lower while leverage increased to 85. I didn't collect enough premium to buy an underwater call back to deleverage. I may end up doing it in the worst timing. I sold a put in SPX and a set puts in SPY to get some relief on the call side. The available fund is at 20K, vulnerable but better than yesterday. My ET positions are fixed Reg T margin but the spreads are harder to roll. I guess I will keep rollover and collect cash until I am OTM.

A Reverse of Reversal 11-2-15

My observation of less than 50% probability of engulfing pattern turned out to be right again. I was surprised to see indices futures recovered from last night near 05% drop this morning when I woke up. European market turned things around on possible ECB stimulus action. ES and RUT had a trending day and both crossed last Friday's high. SPX and RUT gained 1.2% and 2.04% respectively.  Apparently the sell off of last Friday was a head fake or "bottom fake".

My margin was threatened before open. It was a mistake I didn't deleverage my calls during last week's rollover as I indicated in my weekend review. I had to buy long calls to reduce margin all the way up to closing since SPX was melting up. I also placed orders to sell puts to hedge and collect premium to fund my long calls. I ended up bought 12 SPX low cost calls and sold 5 puts in SPX, SPY and RUT collecting about $500 to get through today.

I may consider to reduce my SPX call size tomorrow and continue to buy long calls if the indices continue to melt up. I am near edges of my risk parameters now. Available fund is under 10K and leverage is above 7.

Weekly Review 10-30-15

US indices ended with the 5th up weeks. The gains were smaller and Friday ended with a bearish engulfing. However, the engulfing pattern has worked for me for the last several times. The uptrend is still in place with overbought condition. Hopefully we will see a temporary pull back.

My week ended with negative realized return about $20K again. I continued to use Tyler's approach to roll over my ITM positions and collect premiums. I roughly received 0.8% of cash but didn't reduce my call positions and margin pressure is still building. IB is implementing a new method to calculate margin risk which is going to squeeze my available funds further. I have to reduce my call positions next week to meet the new requirement.

Lessons learned this week:

1. Keep calm and focus on implementing the my strategies and plan. I waited until the expiration day to roll my ITM positions without getting too anxious. My roll over produces positive cash flow partially due to the pop and the dump on Friday. I need to fine tune my rollover approach. Do I close it first or open it first? That's often my dilemma. 
2. Implement Tyler's rollover strategy with all major aspects. I rolled and collected cash but I didn't reduce my ITM size. Therefore no risk and margin were reduced. With IB's new margin calculation I have to reduces my size on Monday. I must keep my risk exposure to the safe level in order to make this system work.

A Reversal? 10-30-15

A overnight pop up was sold off at before the US open. I heard the pop of last night was in anticipation of BOJ to feather easy its policy due to lower than expected econ data. ES/SPX went through some wild swings. It broke both side of IB and closed to the downside.

My rollovers worked out as planed but not without difficulty and anxiety. I opened my new positions in ETB than price went up so I couldn't get any credit to close my current week's positions. Luckily the afternoon sell off helped. My 2090 call was in the money during the mid of the day which made me worried about losing on it. Then my exit order was hit early afternoon. I was at lunch and didn't have a chance to lower my 85 price as I intended. The position was ended OTM. Well, that's trading. I can only plan and control my action. At least I collected $3100 premiums today which is better than last week's of negative 2.3K. I should realize some gains next week if we get a pull back next week. I still get emotional during the rollovers. However, I realized my emotions and kept reminding myself to stay calm and stick to my plan. I am getting better at it.

A Little Pull Back Helps 10-29-15

ES pulled back about 10 points overnight out of 30 point range from yesterday. It parked on top of current balance high. It could be a recheck of the b/o point or initial rejection of the retest August b/o point. It's important to see if it would stay inside of current balance. The entire ES VPOC is right at 2084.5 which was touched to the tick before closing yesterday. We may see a retest of the VPOC again, above is 2100 of CLVN and August b/o area. Below is yesterday's range, then the range low of 2050 area.

My plan is to close my RUT calls of 1190 and SPX 2090 expiring today and tomorrow. Also prepare for SPX ITM roll overs. The key is also deleveraging.

Bulls held up well today. ES couldn't even get back to the value area of yesterday. It was 10 points, small range day for ES, more like a base building than a pull back. NQ already made a new high. Would other follow the suit? RUT had a 1% pull back. I was able to close my 1190 call spreads for a 90% profit. I rolled my SPY ITM calls for this week to next week and Nov 3. I don't think there is much difference to roll ITM positions in theta for a day to expiration to the same position to next week. So I rolled a SPX 2040 to next week and collected $390. I will be so busy to tomorrow to roll about 9 positions cross my accounts. Hopefully 2090 SPX will be closed tomorrow. It's right at money now.

I will keep calm and confident to work on my rollovers tomorrow. It's all temporary loss and I will make it back.

The Worst Case Scenario For Me 10-28-15

As expected Fed didn't raise interest rate. Market initially sold off detecting slight hawkish tone in Fed's statement. Buyers stepped in when ES/SPX retraced to near yesterday's low. Bulls gradually pushed all indices to day's high. SPX/ES closed right at August's breaking down point. It looks like 2100 is the next target. My worst case scenario is the reality now. All of my calls are ITM or underwater. The next two expiration days are going to be struggle for me.

I sold couple SPY puts to fund rollovers and reduce margin. I had to buy some Nov 3 far OTM calls to fend of the naked bear calls. There are less puts than calls over all after taking profit with some puts. I must close my RUT this week's calls in ET to raise margin and prepare for Friday's rollover. This last two month has been tough. However I have learned some ways to deal with it. I must remain calm and confident to get though this tough period.

No Deck Clearing? 10-27-15

Normally couple days before FOMC markets go through large swings to explore directions, we call it clearing deck. As of today it hasn't happened. Yes, the expectation of rate change is very low. Maybe the market has no fear of it. The big guys are either sucking in more buyers or ready to take the market higher. We will see their true intentions in next couple days.

I closed couple RUT bear calls and sold a 8x put spreads for Dec 1. I don't have any room to deleverage SPX calls. I have only 6 put spreads in the next 2 weeks but IB is showing that I have to pay over $2 exposure fees. There are 17 sets of put spreads in RUT. 6 of them will expire this week.

My risk levels are still higher than expected. Leverage is at 0.47 and margin ratio is barely at 30%. I placed some orders for tomorrow to bring them down.

A Day of Holding 10-26-15

It was an inside day within last Friday's range. The deck clearing action before FOMC hasn't happened. Maybe market is not expecting a rate hike at all. It appears no fear of it. A federal budget deal is reportedly near complete. We may see another pop with some good earnings report. Everything is rosy again. SPX is ready to test August broken down area. NQ already past that point and heading to a new high. I may have to roll my ITM calls again at end of this week. Market can be extended in either direction for much longer than people expected. SPX has gone up 10% in four weeks since the retest of low.

I was able to close couple RUT calls with a small profit and reduced margins. But the ITM calls are still heavy on risk side of it. I had to buy couple more far OTM longs to reduce margin requirement.

I feel like I need to redefine my trading rules. I have made some changes of my setups after the August crash. It need more clarity.  

The Crush Up Continues 10-23-15

Google, Amazon and MSFT earning report pushed the market up 15 points after hour yesterday. Overnight China Central Bank lowered its rate and reserve requirement. Market had another steroid shot and popped again. My 2040/70 spreads were fully in the money by the open. I followed my plan mostly today. The only mistake I made was that I didn't close my 2040/70 expiring position right after I opened next week's replacement. SPX/ES kept pushing up after initial pull back. My target orders never get filled and will get assigned at a full loss. A mistake cost me $2100 (3000-2320x3, plus commission. I rolled IB positions earlier and collected some premiums. I don't know if I will be able to recover the losses next week. I will continue to roll and collect premiums using Tyler's strategy.

My risk parameters were irroting quickly as I am heavy in call side. Available funds were barely above $20K after I bought more long calls to reduce the margin and leverage is back to 50. I have to deleverage again if we open up on Sunday night.

It's been a frustrating week. I will review the market and my activities on weekly review tomorrow.  

Big Surprise !!! 10-22-15

Futures turned up on ECB meeting announcement keeping European rate unchanged. Yesterday's down turn got totally reversed. I underestimated the situation this morning. I was expecting the pop and drop pattern to play out. I quickly added a SPX 2060 bear call for 1 DTE thinking to get a quick scalp. The thought of not to play such short dated options came up as a rule of mine. My bad habit of close eyes and jump took over and I got filled for $1.1. Market turned out to be a trending day and when as high as 1.5% before closing. Then Amazon and Google reported earnings that made ES shoot up another 15 points.

My plan/wish from yesterday are out of windows now. I have to plan to roll over my 2040/70 calls now. I will roll the 2040 in IB up one more week to collect a little premiums which I bought long calls to make it a wide spread. The difficulty is laying in ET positions. Both are 3x spread which is hard to roll. I will have to close the positions and open another set. Good thing I didn't make another mistake adding more positions today. I reserved some margin in ET for tomorrow's roll.

A Much Needed Break 10-21-15

ES pushed through yesterday's high overnight but got rejected after European market opened. The pattern of the last three days finally broken. SPX/ES closed below current balance area. We may need one more down day to confirm it.

I had 15 trades across all accounts. Closed some positions and opened some new ones. Overall IB account is deleveraged. The margin ratio is near 54% for the first time. Leverage is at 33. It appears that margin ratio is not quite related to leverage levels. For example the margin ratio is up 7% but leverage is only reduced from 34 to 33. If margin ratio is safe at and above 50% then what would be a safe level of leverage?

Tomorrow is critical for 3 of my 2040/70 bear calls this week. They have been underwater for a long time and my near b/e exit orders are still not hit. I have until Friday noon to close them but I would rather to exit out by tomorrow.

The Same Pattern On 3rd Day 10-20-15

The pop, dump and pop pattern played out on the 3rd day today. ES/SPX pop early in the session to break overnight high and closed the gap of August 21, the beginning of the big crash. The rejection after the gap closing was pretty swift, taking ES to its overnight low. Such round trip actions for the last three days may be indicating a tug war between short term bulls and bears. Bollinger band is squeezing tight also. Also the signs point to a near term break one way or another. My hope is to break it to the down size since market has not had any meaningful pull back and I am positioned heavy on the bear call side.

I had only one trade to close a bull put spread in ET. With such range bound actions theta continued to work in my favor. IB account's risk parameters improved somewhat. Margin ratio is up to 47 and leverage is down to 33. I am prepared to roll my SPX 2040 bear call spread by this Thursday unless we get a meaningful pull back in the next two days.

A Possible Pull Back 10-19015

It was the Black Monday almost to the day 18 years ago. DOW dropped 22.6% in one day. Be ware that Oct has a tendency of wild moves for the market. My main task is still reduce size and leverage.

Futures went down in less than 0.5% overnight. ES and RUT traded inside of last Friday's range. I will wait to see if indices break their overnight low or high and Friday's ranges to determine the direction of the market. We could see a range bound day in this bull flag pattern. I plan to exit some of my threatened bear calls expiring this week while theta decays.

Had 10 trades today. Closed on both call and puts in SPX and RUT. I made my initial margin below $100K and leverage at 34. The margin is still at call side as market continued to hold up. The margin ratio is at 45% and I have 5% more to work on. I need to get use to smaller size now.

Weekly Review 10-16-15

Market continued to melt up after a brief pull back. ES/SPX closed above Sept FOMC high. RUT is behind the rest of the indices but may test Sept high soon. The snap back is pretty strong and late shorts have been squeezed.

My week ended with profit of $2.9K, a 0.18% return on portfolio. It was about $1k less than last week with couple of losses on call side. My margin is still on the call side most of time. The deleveraging plan has not progress well. My goal is to keep leverage below 3 and margin cushion around 50%. I plan to achieve the goal by end of next week.

The straddle paper trade is in progress and no result yet. My earlier entries were not rule based and didn't have tracking data. I made a tracking sheet this week and will work on the straddle strategy seriously.

Up and Away 10-16-15

Indices stayed up overnight as European market stayed positive. Yesterday's pattern played out again. Market squeezed short and pushed to new high of the day before closing. I was able to close couple bear calls early in the morning since my margin went into negative pre market. I was puzzled by the figures as I had over $40K available funds last night. However my current margin rate of 25% is not enough. I need increase it to 50% to be safe. I am still call side heavy while the market keeps malting up. I may have SPX 2040 and SPY 204 go into money next week. I need to figure out a better way to roll.

I made a tracking sheet and entered couple more straddles in paper trade. It may be a better way to use my margin. I will monitor how it works.

Reversal Again 10-15-15

Market started as if it was going to be an inside day or even continued moving down like the last two days. After an attempt of selling before lunch indices reversed to the upside breaking into next balance area above. ES  and SPX closed above Sept FOMC high of 2010s. RUT still has some distance to Sept's high despite a 2.3% pop today. Trades believe there won't be a rate increase this month.

Some of my puts were closed during the push up. I got some call orders filled unexpected due to the same reason. I had to close this week's 2030 calls at $200 loss due to the strong push to near the money. The premium jump from 15c to $2.45. I had to buy it back since this monthly options won't close until Friday morning. Another lesson learned on Gamma risk. Luckily I closed the similar positions in all of my other account yesterday with profits. For whatever the reason I left this one on yesterday. I thought I was safe this morning and left it alone until early afternoon. I started to get concerned when the price was hanging around 50c. I thought the market makers would give up before closing. I tried to roll it to next week about 15 min before closing but couldn't get filled until cash closing. I switched to buy back. It was a lose could have prevented. However I had a plan of 2 steps and I follow it. I didn't panic which is a noticeable improvement. I have deal with several similar positions next week. It may be tougher to deal with since market reversed to the upside. I will hold until late part of the week to roll if my target prices don't get filled.

Managing Positions 10-14-15

US indices stayed below yesterday's range overnight. ES is attempting to push back to prior balance range of 1997-2015.  It could explore below 1995 to 1960 and make the two small balance area into one before goes next balance area. My plan is still deleveraging my positions. I will continue to evaluate these straddles in paper trading.

Market played the pump and dump similar to yesterday. I was lucky to sell a bear call in SPX and a call spread in RUT before the dump. All of my calls for this week were closed in the other accounts. They were near ITM (2030s) for awhile but came down fast for the last couple of days. I didn't want to risk of a surprise pop although I could have canceled my orders today. I will continue to exit out my bear call spreads using this pull back.

My paper trades of straddles are not moving alone. I didn't follow the rules on the first batch of entries. I was being cute. I expected the market would go down again so I entered the first batch 10 points below the ATM price. Then market kept going up for 6% last week and left my positions upside down. I need to follow the rules and keep records of my paper trade.

Need a Pull Back 10-13-15

US indices futures retraced to two days' low range overnight with European market in negative territory. The next balance area is between 1990 to 1950. It's likely that we may see an retrace in ES if we break below 1996. I plan to use this pull back to add some puts in my other accounts to form ICs. I will continue to deleverage my main account. Also I want to continue to test the straddle strategy back tested by Frank to see if I want to implement it.

It was a wild day as the indices broke both overnight high and lows, also both last two days' highs and lows. SPX and RUT closed with a bearish engulfing. It appears the bounce back is over for now. I made most of my puts side of ICs in other accounts. I may be too early as it was the day one of reversal. I will be more conservative moving forward. My leverage is down to 3.5 and margin ratio is at 71%. It needs to be below 50%.  The calls and puts are balanced after today's reversal. Now I have to watch the puts side.

 

A day of waiting 10-12-15

It's Columbus' day. The market is very slow but holding up. It looks like that Last high of Sept Fed high will be taken out. Then a sell off could follow with short term bulls getting their target. I will just play alone with the market.

I took off couple positions to reduce my margin. It wasn't enough on VAR and ES. Leverage is down to 3.8. I still have more work to do in deleveraging. I made another mistake while trying to roll up a SPX Oct 4 put for more premiums. I made a wide put spread of 1860/1630 instead of close the 1750 position. Now I have to the old position soon. I placed some GTC orders to close my underwater calls in hope to break even. I will deal with them when near expiration if not closed by then.

Weekly Review 10-9-15

It was a week of revenge by bulls. Indices ramped up by at least 5%. I have been heavy on bear call side using Tyler's concept of "market won't crash up". Well, it was a melt up. Most of my bear calls are underwater. Some of them are near ITM by the end of the week. I will apply patient to my roll over decision and wait until 1-2 days before expiration to roll my positions. I have been rolling up my puts to collect more premiums.

This is my first week showing $3.9K profit since the last week of August. I have been monitoring my risk parameters closely. My goal is to bring my margin below 50% of my net liq value as Karen suggested. It's dangerously at 75% right now. I created a Risk Monitor sheet to watch my risk levels on a daily base. I am still debating and studying weather to use spreads, naked or a combination. DTR Trading blog has done some valuable studying which I am still reading.

My plan is to reduce my margin/net liq ratio to 50% next week. I will learn to use TOS to construct a risk profile of a 20% crash and 10% pop scenario.  

Relentless Bulls 10-9-15

Bulls are firmly in control. ES touched Sept's FOMC high overnight. It kept trying to take over during the day session. ES/SPX didn't close above it but they closed near it. It's the 7 out 8 up days since the retest of August low. RUT has some catch up to do.

I was trying to reduce my calls. I closed two RUT Oct 5 to reduce my margin. My SPX bear calls are much more close to ITM. I will deal with them next week using Tyler's concept. My leverage is still above 4 and initial margin remains high. If I remember it correctly Karen keeps her initial margin below 50% of her net liq value. I will review her interview again to make sure of it.

Jobless and Fed Minutes 10-8-15

Jobless claim is reported at 263K vs 274K estimated at 8:30 am. Futures didn't react much one way or another. Overnight, ES traded within the range of yesterday. It appears that market is waiting for Fed Minutes. It normally is not a big market mover. But I remember that the sell off in late August was started after the Fed minute release. Expect a choppy morning and a possible break out one way or another after the Minutes release.

My plan is to continue deleverage. Looking to close both calls and puts. I closed some puts before lunch. My orders for exiting calls didn't get filled during my visit to CT scan and doctor's office in the afternoon. Market broke out to the upside after FOMC Minutes released. SPX/ES closed near the high of last FOMC announcement. Most of my calls are underwater now. I will need to deleverage from the call side tomorrow and add some puts to pay for the calls. It feels the market is extended but it can stay that way for a long time.

Relentless Bulls Again 10-7-15

Bulls are still in control. Indices gaped up this morning again. Gaps were closed after briefly in negative territory bulls took over again. SPX and RUT closed above yesterday's highs. It appears that the big money is positioning for tomorrow's jobless claim and Fed minutes. It could go either way after the two events tomorrow. We have had 5 out of 6 up days since the double bottom test.

I didn't get much deleverage done today. Closed one more RUT bear call and rolled up a SPX bear call from Oct 3 to Oct 5. My initial margin is still too high relative to my net liq. Leverage is at 0.38 which should be below 0.3. I need to place some exit orders in the morning since I have a doctor's appointment and CT scan in the afternoon. It will take the entire afternoon out.

I continue to study straddles as a possible trading tool. DTR Trading has published some studies I find very helpful. The paper trades I placed late last week have not yield any profit since the market has been up most of time.

Holding In A New Balance Area? 10-6-15

Market took a breath today. SPX/ES traded in the higher part of yesterday's range. All majors closed down slightly. Market appears in a waiting mode for earnings and FOMC minute this Thursday.

I didn't add any new positions on either side. I only rolled up some puts to collect more premiums. Get to watch out risk. The last sell off was started after August FOMC minutes. My risk perimeters are not low enough. VAR is still over 6oK and initial margin is still 3/4 of my net liq. I should keep it at 1/2 or lower. This will be my work tomorrow.

A Follow Through Monday 10-5-15

It was a gap up day following last Friday's reversal. SPX/ES are back into the balance area of FOMC and closed the gap. The short squeeze was pretty hard and indices are at some important levels. ES touched Fib 78.6% on daily from FOMC high and crossed 50% RT from the broken down on weekly. RUT is right at Fib 50% RT on daily from FOMC and 50% on weekly from the broken down week. We may see some selling pressure at these levels near term. I think there is a good chance that the bottom is in technically speaking. The immediate risk for me is a melt up. I sold more calls last week. Some of them are underwater now. I will continue to monitor my risk perimeters and try to collect more cash while rolling away from current positions.

I tried to roll up some puts to get more premiums but only one for this week got filled. Sold couple more bear call spreads for RUT since it's the weaker one and was up 2.4% today. I am too heavy one call side now. I will try to reduce some tomorrow.    

Monthly Review 4-10-15

The worst month of draw down so far is closed with a -$47.6K. I had the highest number of contracts (300) for this month since I was implementing the two sets of trades per week in August. It hit me the hardest.

Some lessons I have learned:

1. Keep the size small. Watching the levels of Net Liq value and available funds. I need to figure out what is the safe level for each naked put/call and spreads at 5X, 6X, etc.

2. Pay close attentions to the areas which I don't quite understand. For instance, I wasn't quit sure the meaning of 1.5 leverage before the down turn of late August. I had suspected it was too high. I didn't dig into it to get it clear, nor took actions to reduce it.

3. Spell out my suspicious or subconscious. There were several issues related to potential risk I was worried subconsciously before the crash, such as the VAR and ES numbers in Risk Navigator. I noticed it was indicating that my portfolio had over $100K risk exposure and even larger ES (Expected Shortfall). I didn't understand how IB calculated the figures and it seamed unrealistic. I thought I was safe since most of my positions were in CS which has limited risk. It's true that CS saved me from a total wipe out. It also shown the shortcoming of the setup. It's very difficult to roll over or defend when vol suddenly pops.

4. Take actions when suspecting dangers ahead or roll back to a safer positions when not clear with risk perimeters. If I had done part of that my S-5 account won't had been liquidated. I had the feeling of I had more positions on (8/10) for a while. I meant to ask S-5 to clear the margin requirement of each contract. But I never did. I wanted to reduce my size down to 5 out of 10, I waited too. I was hoping to implement it by letting them expire. Then I didn't get that chance. Now is 50% available funds a safe number to have? It's very hard to figure out a model when vol goes from 15 to 50 in a matter of 2 days.  

I have to work harder to the risk control measures with Greeks and volatility changes. Until I figure out a reliable safe ratio I won't be safe.    

Weekly Review - A Turn Around? 10-4-15

The week started with a gap down on Sunday night attempting retest the August low of indices. RUT actually went through the the late August low to 1075 on Tuesday and bounced back. It looks like a successful retest if we can hold the new low on another test. SPX/ES retested the closing of 8-25 and also bounced. NFP on Friday caused a large swing from down to up. Indices closed at high of the day overall.
The bullish engulfing pattern has not played out often to the upside according to my memory. So I will take a wait and see approach.

This week ended with a realized loss of $5.2K again. It should be near the end of my losses from the black Monday. My recover continues slow and steady. I am less than $2K in the hole now. I have been playing small in size and learning more of risk control measures. I kept leverage below 4 and available funds above $50K for the week. My margin is on the bear call side most of the time based on the assumption of market doesn't crash up but crash down. I continued to adapt new methods to improve my risk control and returns. I am still learning. I also started paper trading straddles. I want to learn how to handle losers before put this strategy with real money.  

What Does Low NFP Mean For Market? 10-2-15

The NFP is 142K vs 203K expected. How would the market interpret it? Lower number means likely no interest rate change. On the other hand it's an indication of weak economy. So far, futures market is down 1.5% before open. The lows of last two days are broken. We may test the weekly low of 1865 area with a gap at 1876. We may trade back to the lower balance area if we closed below 1880ish.

My plan is to collect some profit on the bear call side and may be add small size puts for IC or Strangle. I must keep enough dry powder before end of today for the weekend.

I am paper trading Straddles to see how it works in current market conditions.

Wow, what a swing day! Indices fall below last 2 days range after the poor NFP numbers. The next logic is to close last Tuesday's gap around 1875 for ES. Instead buyers stepped in to defend the top range of that Tuesday's high and started to push up. I kept looking for the "logic" places for bears to step in. It never happened in a meaningful way. All indices formed a bullish engulfing today. Bad news is good news again now. It's likely we will see a follow through on Monday.

I moved up couple of my short puts to collect more premiums and widen the spreads. Now I have incorporated Tyler's collecting more premiums into my practices. The key is be safe first. I sold more bear call spreads across my accounts. I didn't expect the market could turn up so much. It appears I was too early. However, I maintained my POTM rules and stayed above Sept FOMC highs. I will deal with my risk if this is a true turnaround.

The Day Before NFP 10-1-15

Indices futures went up to close Monday's down gap overnight. Overall, expected today to be choppy before NFP tomorrow. Trades were up and down to clear decks. US indices closed slightly higher. SPX/ES is back to prior range of 1910-80. They are positioned to go either way after tomorrow's NFP.  The down trend is still intact but we may have a short term up swing. Daily MACD is turning positive. SPX has formed higher highs and higher lows since this Tuesday test of 1870. RUT is weaker than SPX. If market closed up firmly tomorrow and hold well on Monday we may have seen a successful retest of August lows.

I closed most of my shaky puts for next week which were entered before the Black Monday in August. I tried to roll down some long puts in my 2x, 3x spreads to widen them to 5-6x and collected some additional premiums. It was inspired by Tyler's concept of continuously collecting premiums. I closed couple of bear calls to increase my margin and reduce leverage. The available funds are slightly up to $56K from 52K and leverage is down to 3.3. One thing I am not clear is VAR and ES. I will call IB or check if any updated video on this subject on its website.

Window Dressing and Relief 9-30-15

A relief rally crossed from Asia to Europe overnight. European markets are above 2% across board. US futures are holding 1% gain overnight but still in Monday's range. Today is end of the quarter and we may see some window dress early on.

My plan is to sell some calls to keep with the down trend. However I need to reduce my overall risk below Leverage 4, expected shortfall under $60K and available funds above $80K. May be some call spreads will help adding bear calls.

Bulls finally had their day. Indices gaped up and regained the most of 2% down day. ES only retested yesterday's high and broke both side of IB. I sold some bear call spreads across my accounts. I didn't want to commit too much buying power for naked calls. I closed most of puts for this week. I brought leverage down to 4 and VAR/ES below $60K. But available fund is only $52K since calls take too much of buying power.

Pros are positioning for this Friday's job report. We may see another day or two up swing. I am not sure if the August low retest is done. It may tell more next week.

A Day of Rest 9-29-15

This is the 2nd day that I missed my morning planing.
Indices had a decent push up early morning but bears are in control early high failed. It was a tug war until yesterday's low broke in early afternoon.

I struggled to sell calls kept hoping a decent pull back. I finally sold a set of SPY calls and along with a SPX bear call earlier to make my margin to the call side. I need to reduce my positions in puts soon. SPX's initial retest of August low may result a bounce which I may be able to use to unload some of my puts. I am not sure if it will hold ultimately on the 2nd try. I need to prepare for the worst case scenario. I still have puts at 1800 whereas Keith has nothing above 1700.

A Trending Monday 9-28-15

Futures had a small gap down on Sunday night. European opened with sell off which dragged US futures further down. US market opened with orderly selling and couldn't pull itself up at all. RUT is leading the flush as biotech and healthcare sectors continued falling. ES/SPX were down 3% in the early afternoon. They closed around 2.6% down. RUT performed the worst and closed below late August low. I sold couple far out puts earlier but realized the selling was severer. I then turned my focus to selling calls to reverse my margin to the call side. I think Tyler's concept of being heavy on calls has its merits. Market doesn't crash up. It's easier to adjust call side.

My leverage is up to 0.5 again and available margin is around $70K. I need to reduce my risk levels as volatility is creeping up again. Let's see if the August low retest will be successful. I have puts in SPX and RUT may be in danger if the retest failed. RUT doesn't look very promising.

Weekly Review 9-26-15

Indices continued to downward this week after last week's FED announcement. SPX and RUT retested early Sept's lows of 1910 and 1112 respectively. SPX held, but RUT failed the retest on daily and weekly charts. Biotech and healthcare were amount notable sectors pulling down RUT and SPX. The next level below for both indices is the Fib 78.6% RT and possible August 24 lows.

I have been adding bear calls on any attempts of bounce and staying heavy on bearish side in my positions and margin usage. So far it's working. My recovery continues slowly. The P/L for this week is -$3100 with realized August losses. The balance is down from -7K to -4K. The realized losses will continue to show into early Oct and impact Oct's total returns. My goal is to make a positive return for this year.

The learning and refining my trading system continues. I am staying small and managing my profit from 50 to 90%. I have learned a lot from the Skype KST group where members share their trading practices and styles. So far I have leaned to widen my spreads, collect more premiums and smaller sizing. I will try to trade straddles in my paper account first as Craig has shown his success on Tasty Trade.

My main task for risk control is to figure out how much capital is enough or safe for one spread, one naked or one straddle.  My biggest failure during this sharp down turn was over leveraged without knowing my real risk levels.

Attempts To Go Higher 9-25-15

Futures moved up about 1% overnight after European opened. SPX/ES stayed above Wednesday's high until 2pm on this weekly expiration Friday. RUT was weaker and led the sell off much earlier. ES not only closed the overnight gap and tested 1910 again. RUT broke yesterday's low and closed below it. It looks like RUT will test Fib 78.6% around 1100 and August low could be the next. SPX may follow the suit.

I was able to close some puts during the morning push up and sold some call spreads. I also sold one set of Oct 5, RUT 5X put spread. A new idea from Tyler which he uses much wider spread. I am just experimenting and observing the effect of it. During the sell off  my margin turned over to the puts side. The last naked SPX bear call turned it around before closing. My Leverage stayed at 0.38, available funds went down to $72K, VAR and ES reduced few thousand $ to $52K and 60K. I am still not very clear how these numbers interact. I am watching them closely though.  

Retest Recent Lows 9-24-15

It was another gap down day. SPX and RUT retested Sept 1st lows which lined up with Fib 61.8%. Both of them bounced from there and rallied back to yesterday's low. The retest may not be over unless indices close above yesterday's high and hold it. I didn't look at the Fib levels until market closed. Otherwise it may be just another short lived snap back.

I sold some calls and call spreads today. My margin is back on the call side again. However, I was bit too early despite I thought there may be a snap back. I also tried to sell some puts but no fills. I should close more naked calls tomorrow to bring my available margin back to 100K. I have about 50% left and leverage is at 0.39.

A Day Saved 9-23-15

A flash in ES hit 1910 after China's PMI reported lower than expected. I thought the 2nd shoe is going to drop. However, European opened higher and saved the day. ES traded inside of yesterday's range. RUT is the legging part now. It's chart appears more bearish than the others and hanging on the edge of its CHVA. Once if it falls below there is not much volume support to it's recent low of 1100. The recent pattern is hit overnight and recover partially on RTH.

I tried to add some bear calls today after couple of them closed on my target. I only had one set of SPX call spread filled this morning. My margin is shifted to the put side now. I plan to continue add to call side in case we get another flush down. I still see a 43K short fall risk with leverage at 0.37.

Turn Around Tuesday 9-22-15

US futures were dragged down by European market with VW's scandal and bearish sentiment. DAX closed down 3.8%. ES was down near 2% by noon only recovered back to down 1.23% at closing. It tested Fib 50% RT today and bounced. MACD is turning negative on daily again. RUT has a similar picture and not showing oversold conditions. The next target below is Fib 61.8% for both indices I am trading.

I had my annual check up today so I didn't trade this morning. I place couple puts spread in RUT after I came back from Doctor's office. None of them got filled during the afternoon's recovery. I sold 4 SPY Nov bear calls leverage the selling pressure and scalping. I appears Tyler's heavy on call side has its merit for reducing risk of market crush. I need to study more of its perimeters.

US futures are down again after Asian market opened and fall. It looks like the 2nd shoe is falling down now.

New Trend on Monday? 9-21-15

Indices opened gap down on Sunday night. ES recovered overnight after European open. It left a small gap below. ES now has gaps below and above. It may go either way to close a gap today in a choppy session. ES 's head and shoulder pattern is still in place. RUT may be forming its right shoulder now. Overall the market is still in bearish patterns. VX is pulling back at Fib 38% and next target will be 50% at 21.5 area.

My plan is to sell more calls today mainly with CS to reserve my buying power and keep leverage low.

It was a choppy day indeed. ES broke out to the upside in AM, It got knocked down less than half way to the gap above. It than closed the gap below and buyer stepped in. It closed inside Friday's range. I didn't have any trade except an error entry. I forgot to put in - sign again on a call spread in SPX. I placed an order to exit it with a little profit. The down trend is still intact. SPX and RUT weekly MACD are improving but not above 1. I spent a lot of time reading Tyler's post explaining his style of trading in Skype. It make sense to be heavy on the call side since market doesn't crush up like crush down. However I don't like constantly dealing with positions in the money. I will incorporate  his approach into my style slowly to reduce my risk.

Weekly Review - A Possible Trend Reversal? 9-19-15

After FOMC day, market resumed selling led by European market. DAX was down more than 3%. US indices followed with around 1.5%. Both SPX and RUT had large volume in selling. MACDs are negative in weekly chart as well. I need to watch out and prepare for an retest of recent low or a complete break down as a worst case scenario. My risk is heavier to the down side. I plan to sell more of bear calls near term. We may not see a new high any time soon.

It was another $8K realized losing week from the late August. Hopefully I am near the end of tunnel now. Stay small and versatile is my new theme from now on.

A Follow Through Selling Day 8-18-15

No matter what Fed does the market can interpret it differently. Overnight European market sold off on Fed's no rate increase. US futures dropped 1% pre-open. Market went wild as today was the option expiration day. SPX ended down 1.55 with sell off before close.

I am not sure if the new sell off is the beginning of another leg down or a deck clearing before leg up. We will see the intention of the market next week. Regardless the market actions my focus is on risk control and deleveraging. I sold couple CS puts for IC and possible adjustment purpose. I took profit on some bear calls today. My buying power is up to $100K but my leverage is back to 0.4 from 0.38. I am not quite understand the relationship yet. I am paying attention to VAR (value at risk) and ES (expected shortfall). It cost me so much when I ignored them before the August sell off. I should call IB next week to understand these figures.  

A Whole Lot of Anxiety For A Little Change 9-17-15

Today is the day for FOMC announcement. Indices continued to hold up overnight. My plan is to make my naked puts into credit spread and reduce my bear calls so my risk is reduced and balanced. I am heavy on bear calls from the margin standpoint. I bought back couple Oct 2 puts back for profit and left the long puts to cover the other naked puts in Oct 4. I am not sure how well it would really reduce margin if there is a big drop.

It was no rage change from FOMC. SPX closed at 1990, around yesterday's closing after pushing up to 2020. Many of my puts spreads exit orders were filled. I added couple Oct 3,4 bear calls CS near the high to help finance part of my puts exits.

Overall, it was a big day for nothing in terms of price. The high was rejected initially. I would wait to see how market would interpret FOMC in next couple days. Are we going to see the retest of the August low with the budget fight looming? I would stay light in size and bring my leverage below 3. It's at 3.8 today.

Positioning for FOMC 9-16-15

Futures stayed in the upper range overnight. Asia and Europe are up nicely. It looks like the trade is going to positioning the the up range of weekly for tomorrow's FOMC. It can go either way from the mid of the entire down move. ES is above Fib 50, below 62%.

My task is to reduce my exposures on both side, reduce naked puts to 1 or 0 and keep leverage below 0.5

It was another up day again to my surprise. SPX was up 0.87%. My plan of reducing naked puts didn't go well since I used diagonals which is often not easy to fill. I only bought back one RUT Oct 960 naked put back. I will just go ahead to buy some SPX naked puts back tomorrow before FOMC to lock in my profit and wait out for the news before I decide what to do next. I will also close out some of my bear calls tomorrow morning to release some margin. It's going to be a big day tomorrow afternoon. I will not add any positions until the direction is clear. My leverage is down to 0.42 today. I want to get it to 0.3 or better before tomorrow's announcement.

Rallying into FOMC? 9-15-15

My plan for today is to continue deleveraging and reduce my size of naked puts. I didn't expect ES/SPX could break 1970. It appears that the lower deck was cleared yesterday. SPX went up 1.3% and closed at 1978.

All of my 9-17's positions are closed with some level of profits which is a big relief for me. No I have to work on reduce my put positions for 9/25 and 9/30 tomorrow. No one knows what would happen on FOMC's announcement and how the market will react to it.  I made 2 naked SPX puts into 1 and rolled 2 to lower prices so they may cost me less to make them into credit spread. I plan to close the low price of RUT naked put and make 1-2 SPX credit spreads.

I sold some naked calls today to hedge my puts. It made bear side heavier now in my option portfolio now. I may have to do some adjustment if we have a surge up after FOMC. I will lighten some mature bear calls tomorrow.

I finally brought the leverage below 0.5. My next target is 0.3.

Waiting for Fed and Clearing Deck? 9-14-15

Futures opened higher on Sunday night. ES was up 15 points,  then it got faded overnight like many other times recently. ES was back to last Friday's range before RTH. My theses are that trade is going to swing down and up to clear deck before this Thursday's FOMC as usual.

My plan is still deleveraging before FOMC this Thursday. The meeting is apparently moved one day late due to the Labor Day. It will give an extra day to let my positions decay a little more. I need to be calm and patient. My objective must be clear and execute decisively.

It was a small range day for a change. ES had about 15 points range and VIX closed below 24. All indices are down less than 0.4%. I didn't have much activities either. I had to work on Turbo Tax filing issues since tomorrow is the deadline. I only closed my SPY puts for 35% profit.

I need to be more aggressive to protect my naked puts positions tomorrow. I didn't realize I still have 4 naked SPX and 1 in RUT. Market seams to be very nerves about Fed. Chinese market is still falling which didn't help at all.

Weekly Review 9-12-15

It was a week of holding pattern for indices. The swings were still large and VIX hanged around 25. Bulls and bears were canceling each other. All eyes were on Fed and China. Daily and weekly bear flag is still in place. Most traders are still expecting an retest of SPX 1860-1830 area before or after FOMC next Wednesday. Market tends to surprise most people. My focus should be on my own risk control.

My main activities for the week were deleveraging and damage control. I had a break with VIX below 28. My leverage is between 1-0.8. It's still not at my target of 0.5 or below. My losses continued to show up as this week's positions closed. It was another $15K realized. My total P/L is $13K now.

I plan to continue to reduce my position size next week, especially on Monday and Tuesday before FOMC. I must change my mindset of matching size and $ amount for recovery. I can stay out of a dangerous period and try to recover my loss later. Surviving this down turn is my priority!

Risk Control 9-11-15

Indices futures got knocked on their heads again. ES is trading at lower range of yesterday around 1938-48. VIX futures is above 25 again. Sellers are still in control.

I realized last night that I have too many naked puts from last round of rollover to reduce my margin. They are creating a bigger dangerous element if the market falls sharply again. My plan for today is to eliminate all of the naked positions:

1. closing,
2. roll it down and buy puts to protect;
3. buy long put directly to protect the positions.
4. reduce sizes and then buy long protection to make them into spread.

It was an inside day but major indices closed at high of the day. This week had a small gain. Overall it was an inside week and the bear flag is still there.

I followed my plan to reduce margin and covered most of the naked puts. The final count is from 12 naked puts to 3. With 50K available margin and 0.68 leverage I should be able to handle an normal drop on Sunday night and Monday. Unless something happens dramatically trade may stay in a waiting mode until FOMC Wednesday. I will continue to reduce my exposures next Monday.

Retest Recent Low or Break Down? 9-10-15

Futures went through big swings overnight. ES has had 40 point range most to the upside only to get pushed back before open. VX is below 28 so far. It looks like the trade want to retest last Friday's gap of 1920 area. If it doesn't hold then we may see 1890 low again.

My margin went down to $28K before open. My task is to continue to defend my margin and deleverage. I will continue to rollover my puts.

Market traded in a range bound today. Lows got bought up and highs got sold off. ES closed Monday's gap but left Friday's gap alone. It left for a future retest? The bear flag or a wedge on daily and weekly are still intact. It's hard to tell which way it may go. VIX closed below 25. It's still in a very tight range. I was able to close and move around some positions to bring my margin to a safe level. However I made a mistake at the end to mess up my post expiry figures. I was supposed to sell 9-11 1915 long put and buy another long put of next week to increase my protections. I selected 1920 to sell instead of 1915 after I canceled the original one which couldn't get fill. Now my post expiry excess predicted only $8K left. I will monitor it closely tomorrow. The key is to see if it increases as the value of expiring positions decreasing. I will have to close or roll more puts to bring my margin up. My leverage is closed at 0.84. It's still not at my target of 0.5 or below, but better than 1.0.

A Day of Reversal 9-9-15

I missed to write this morning's plan due to trader bite technical issue and perhaps feeling good about the 1% up overnight. Indices started falling from overnight highs right off of the gate. My initial assumption was a gap closing action. The day ended taking out yesterday's lows for ES/SPX and RUT. It looks like a bearish engulfing candle.

I was able to lock and roll couple SPX positions base on my plan of deleveraging. I was a bit too aggressive in selling SPY Oct 158 puts which turned out to be too early and the decay may be slow too.

I am getting too emotionally affected by by market swings. I need to say calm and focus on my plan of deleverage and risk control on a daily bases. Have a clear plan to deal with different market scenarios.

A Day of Relief 9-8-15

US indices futures went up over 1.5% overnight after the Labor Day long weekend. It's brought by China and Europe markets are up push. Last Friday's gap was closed. VIX is still at 25. I will focus on deleveraging my positions if the up move is holding well.

1. Roll some long puts to my naked short puts positions to make up credit spreads;
2. Roll naked short puts further out if there is 25% more profit;
3. Roll endangered puts out for a credit
4. Sell more calls to hedge my puts.

It was a strong rally. Indices didn't get any chances to fill last Friday's gap. ES/SPX and RUT closed on high of the day. SPX and RUT ended with 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. I was able to reduce my leverage to 0.78 and margin up to 50K. There are still some positions under water for Sept 3 and 4. Hopefully I will be able to manage them tomorrow. So far, the rally is still a retrace toward Fib 61.8 on weekly and daily. Until the market close above such levels firmly my risk is still at the downside. I will take advantages of the pull back to reduce my leverage and risk.

Weekly Review 9-4-15

I survived the 2nd week of selling and high volatility with more wounds. My losses continued showing on book. This week booked $16K of loss with many of them incurred during the last week of blood bath and margin calls. I had some rollovers in hope of later recovery and maintaining my cash level. I have tried to deleverage but only reduced about 0.5, from above 2 to 1.67 at the of the week. I still don't have a very effective way to reduce my margin level without taking a big loss. I will explore more approaches over this long weekend.

Last Friday's gap down and sell off shown the market sentiment is still bearish. MACD and RSI are not showing over sold condition which leaves room for another leg down as many expected. We may not see much of relief until FOMC week on Sept 17. Volatility is still hanging on high 20s to low 30s.

Should or can I hang on for that long?
1. I can close everything next week and keep about $40K as what left available as of now.
2. I can keep managing my risk day by day as I am doing it now. The upside of it is that I may see a turn around soon so that I can recover more that a close out for now. The down side is that I may get wiped out with another sharp leg down or slowly get killed by a thousand cuts.

The answer: flip a coin? May be a creative thinking and execution may save me!

Another Black Friday? 9-4-15

Futures dropped near 1% overnight as European fall around -2%. Is it another Black Monday? NFP is much worse than expected as it just released. Jobs +173K v.s +217K est. My job is to survive this day with deleveraging.

It was another heavy selling day despite the two attempts of pushing up in the morning and before closing. SPX closed down 1.5% and RUT down -0.75%. It's still better than  -2% and more across European boards. I continued to roll down my puts to maintain my margin level. I closed my this week's put in the last hour with anxiety, but patiently waited for all day long. Over all I survived today.

I need to figure out a better way to deleverage my puts. I rolled down many of them to naked positions. I couldn't roll the long legs together due to the limited margin availability and the difficulty of rolling credit spread. Once these left long puts expired my naked puts could expose to margin limit again. I need to figure out a better way to deleverage over this weekend. There could be another wave of selling after this long weekend.

Positioning Before NFP 9-3-15

US indices continued moving higher into Monday's gap zone overnight.  It tested the gap this morning during ECB's conference but was quickly pushed back. VX dropped below 25 overnight as well. My theses are 1, trade is to position in a neutral area such as ES 1970s before NFP tomorrow morning. 2, close both gaps above and below, then park in 1950s of CLVA.

My plan is to continue deleveraging. 1. rollover with less contracts but still try to collect some premium. 2. close all RUT expiring positions today. 3. working on to close my SPX tomorrow's expiring positions. Set orders to close them today or tomorrow.

Keep calm and carry on.

Well, the day of rally failed after closing the gap above. ES fall back to close the gap below as well. It was a rare day which ES break both sides of IB. My theses two was played out. But ES closed slightly below 50.
I moved couple Sept 11 SPX 1910 down. My 3:2 swap didn't get executed despite of passed price actions. None of my RUT positions were filled even the expiring 1100. RUT is closed at 1145. The probability of 4% drop at open is low unless the NFP report is really bad or good. I also converted a bull put to a bear put for 9-11, 1910 which is my highest put position. I have to figure out a way to work on the same position in ET that could not be break off as naked.

Tomorrow's NFP is critical. Since the sentiment is pretty bearish it is likely ES will retest the recent low of 1900. My positions are still fragile. Margin is at only 32K and leverage is 1.3. I will try to rollover more positions. I will start before 8:30 to watch the NFP report reactions and prepare for a bad open.  

A Day of Relief 9-2-15

US indices moved to yesterday's high overnight. After initial selling out of gate market held and rallied into closing. ES broke yesterday's high and moved into gap zone. I think the trade is to prepare for Friday's job report. VIX also fall below 30 and closed at day's low of 26.

I took this break to roll over some of my puts in RUT and SPX. My margin is back to 40K. I also sold some calls to finance my rollovers since they don't cost me any margin for now. I need to be more aggressive in rolling SPX tomorrow if I get a chance. There is still a good chance that market rollover to test lower before or after job report. I need to be prepared for the worst just in case. It's a matter of fighting to save my account. I can't just hope for the better outcome.

Retest or New Low 9-1-15

Indices couldn't cross the Fib levels yesterday. They started to drop in evening session after closed at lows. By this morning before open, they were down near 2% already. It was another bloody day as most of the indices closed near 3% in measured move.

I was proactively working on maintaining my margin levels. I had to close 3 of 4 RUT long puts for this week and closed a rollover in SPX Oct, made a only$200 out of 4000. Lack of margin and buying power really tight up my hands. I will continue to work on deleveraging my account tomorrow. I have had 275 contracts for Sept, the highest number on my record. I was over leveraged as I was implementing 2 round trades per week plan. Over leverage and rely on luck killed me this time.

Tonight indices are showing some level of bounce after hitting their Fib levels during the RTH. Either we go up or down from here my main objective is to deleverage and release margin. I was not active enough and lacked of solid solutions during last week's pop.

Monday Dips 8-31-15

It was expected indices to face some resistance after SPX and RUT closed at Fib 61.8 and 50% entrancement from the Weekly break down charts. ES/SPX and RUT had a small range day. They tried to push up for most of today, RUT even went to positive for a while. But they closed lower. It looks like the market may try to have another leg down.

I came in with deleveraging in mind. I sold couple bear call spreads in both ET accounts. I typed in a wrong date to sell in IB and didn't notice it until near closing. The only thing I did in IB was closed Sept 30 1050 naked put with 65% profit. My losing side is heavier on SPX. I may have to take bigger losses to close some puts since I didn't get much deleveraging done today. ES slide below last night low this evening already. Let's see what Asia and Europe will bring to the table. I have only $28K margin left after today's monthly expiration.

A week Of Blood Bath 8-29-15

You never know when the beast will strike! A week before the passing week we were in this calm and boring range bound. The release of FOMC meeting minute indicated no decision to raise the rate in Sept. Market didn't react too badly. Then came to a small sell off on Thursday pushing ES to the lower end of the range. I was a little concerned the market may break down to the next balance area. Friday's 1+% drop and margin calls in IB had me worried and defenseless in buying power and available margin. I was worried a lot over the weekend and looking for ways to release margin. I reviewed my exit plan. I didn't come up with a lot more solutions other than closing more equity positions and rollover some credit spread positions.

The Black Monday actually started on Sunday night. Futures opened another gap down and continued to fall with Asian markets, especially the Chinese market. Then European market followed the suit. The rest is the history.

My damages were severe. I had to deal with margin issues on Monday and Tuesday. I tried to stay calm and rational as much as I could. I was facing the danger of losing my entire IB account. I am still not totally out of the wood yet.

My realized losses for all of my accounts were about $25K. There is about $85K total losses with other expiration periods and liquidation of S-5 account. Like they said the biggest draw down is in the future. I was just about to recover from last summer's $97K loss in grains. This time it damaged my equity positions. They were all liquidated. I am set back to 0% profit now after trading this strategy for 2.5 yrs. I will have to rethink of my career in trading after this crisis is over.

Lessons learned so far:

1. Not over leverage at any time. I was at 1.5 leverage ratio before the sell off. I have been monitoring my value at risk, VAR. I thought about to look up the meaning of leverage ratio. I kept to delay it thinking I had been OK so far. For that I paid a hefty price. When in doubt check it out immediately.
2.  Get to know a strategy well enough before implement it. I have been using credit spreads for several months. I knew the advantages of limited risk and lower margin requirement for which it saved me for being totally killed. But I didn't know it was very hard to rollover, not even for the same strike for longer DTE.
3. Risk control and exit plan must be very specific.

There are a lot more to list. I will do it later.

Another 2+% Up Thrust 8-27-15

Indices stayed up overnight with Asian and European markets recovery. ES gaped up above Monday's high and closed Sunday's night's gap. ES closed inside of Monday's lower range. RUT also closed Monday's gap but closed below Monday's low. After an attempt of a steep push down to near yesterday's high after 2 pm bulls staged a strong offense to make a new high of the day. The next target for bulls is above 2000. It may be a tough fight. One indication is that VIX future is still at 24 range. It didn't even go below Tuesday's candle body despite the rally of the last two days.

I closed the rest of two RUT positions with some profits for a change today. I will work on three more of SPX puts expiring tomorrow. My highest position is 1930 and 50+ points away from today's closing. I will be OK unless we get another 50 points down day. With the high VX, it's possible but not likely. I will prepare my exit orders tomorrow morning. Then deal with Monday's month end closing as well.

Another Day of Battle 8-26-15

US indices moved up again overnight. It seems being the pattern of the last few days. Up at night and sold off by end of the day. My plan is still deleverage. I will do the following:
1. Roll over spreads with separate orders after unsuccessful of combo yesterday;
2. Look at closing the long leg first and then buy lower spreads to compensate the losses;
3. Buy short dated puts to increase margin or above the losing legs to make it a bear put;

First work on the positions of expiring this week in all 4 of my accounts.

It was another wild day for sure. I am so glad I asked the Yahoo group about rollover spreads last night. The responses gave me different thinking and approach to tackle my problem of rollover credit spreads. Thanks to the 3+% rally of the last hour today most of my positions expiring this week were closed except 2 which I will deal with them tomorrow.

The problem is not over yet. But I will deal with them with a calm and rational approach. A lots has been learned. The key is size and risk management especially before any entry.

Killing Monday after Bloody Friday 8-24-15

It has been over 3% down again overnight. Asia and Europe are selling off and dragging the US indices down. It appears there will be about 3% gap down. Price quotes are wild and often unavailable. I am facing margin calls in IB account. I just got a call from Anthony that my S-5 account would be liquidated. It's going to cost me $25.6K.

A bloody day with margin close at S5 and margin calls at IB. A disastrous loss without getting a break. I will review it over the weekend.

A Dead Cat Bounce or Real Break Out? 8-25-15

A killing Monday is behind us for now which I am going to review it later or on my weekly review.
Last night China Central Bank cut its interest rate again alone with other rate related changes after Shanghai index closed down 7.6%. European market and US indices futures reacted with 4-3% surge. Before RTH, ES is parked on top of yesterday's high which is on the lower edge of CHVA. If we closed back in the CHVA of 1980 I think we would have a base to hold. We may see a retest of yesterday's low or even break below it then it's a dead cat bounce. My plan is to deleverage my account currently at 4.94. It was at 8 yesterday with VIX at highest level of near 50. I will roll down and out some positions near the money when and if possible. I may close some positions with little profit or loss to deleverage as well. Need to work on my Etrade and Fidelity accounts.

All of my corn and wheat positions were closed due to the margin call of Friday and Monday.

ES and RUT couldn't break yesterday's highs and finally gave up. The end of day reversal was pretty bad. Overnight lows were broken at the end. It was a largest reversal since 2008 according to data. I tried to roll over my put positions all day. Apparently it is difficult to roll spreads. I put on combo, extend spread, separate orders. None of them get filled. Volatility is still high despite the 3% run up overnight. VIX briefly went below 30 then closed above 40. Tomorrow may be another volatile day base on today's closing. I plan to do the following to reduce my margin and rollover my near money and ITM positions.

1. Buy out of money puts to increase my margin if I still have enough margin to buy them in IB.
2. Rollover credit spreads on this week's puts even at a loss;
3. Close positions to shore off margin calls.

The key is to survey and manage my risk to avoid a big disaster.  

Weekly Review 8-22-15

This week was differently change in price actions and sentiments. Using SPX/ES and RUT as examples there was a surge to the upside attempting to break into higher CHVA on Monday. On Wednesday after Fed Minutes released there were enough bulls to buy on the dip although sellers stopped the push up. The gap down on Thursday was not severe until the close at low of the day with at least 2% down across the board. VIX closed above 18. Friday opened with another gap down for no any major news. Panic was spread with chain reactions. SPX/ES ended with another 3% down and closed at low of the day again. They are parked on top of the next CHVA. VIX closed near 29. RUT fared better with only 1.3% down at cliff of its CHVA.

The week ended with 100% winners and $11,900 profit largely from previously closed wheat and corn positions. However, my portfolio value decreased over 20% from the last two days of heavy selling and margin increase. I encountered the worst margin draw down on Thursday and Friday. The worst often happens on worst timing. Like the pro said, the worst draw down is always in the future. On Friday several things happened to make it my worst trading day in indices.
1. I woke up late being lazy and undisciplined. I stayed up too late watching movies on my phone knowing my margin was kind of low. I didn't wake up early to prepare for the session. I let my guard down.
2. I run into network problems with comcast and IB login. On top of those I lost my S-5 platform setups and it came up blank. By the time I switched my internet connection and log in my trading plate forms IB started to liquidate my positions on margin calls. All of my wheat and most of corn naked positions were liquidated. It costed me about -$2500. Then came in 200 shares of HD, 700 shares of QCOM, 180 shares of JPM be sold by IB. My cash position changed from -$22K to + $54K. I didn't know my credit spread positions could increase my margin so much with VIX and Vega increase. In the afternoon I closed couple puts at loss to reduce my margin but didn't help much since the sell off continued. The margin figure changed almost every minute. I finally held above $5K at closing. It won't be enough for another down day on Monday. Luckily most of my positions are in spreads, otherwise I might have been in a much bigger hole or even crushed.

My task for this weekend is to figure out the best way to shore off my margin and avoid margin calls. I can roll down my positions but spread appears doesn't reduce much of margin. I may have to reduce my sizes while roll over to take some losses for now. I must come up a detailed plan before Sunday night. To survive on this sell off and be able to trade again is my priority. Do not a assume the sell off would stop here. It may have further to go and I must prepare for the worst scenarios.

A Bloody Friday 8-21-15

One of my worst days in trading indices.
I woke up late when market was open in the morning;
Having internet connection problem or IB was jammed. I struggled for more than a hour while market was falling.
I got margin stops right after I logged on IB.
I struggled to try to reduce my positions but couldn't do it fast than the market drops. VIX increased so rapidly causing options prices multiples.
All of my wheat and corn put positions were forced to closed causing a loss of $2500.

In the end, my available margin is still under $10K when indices made new lows on closing.
I will review it tomorrow.

Bear Is Back 8-20-15

My theses and plan:

US indices moved down overnight on weakness of globe markets and cruse oil. It's a gap down at open.  ES, NQ are still within their current range while TF/RUT are below their weekly range. My targets for today are as follows.
ES: below 2053 O/N low, 2046 last seen of crime, 2038;
      above, 2066 yesterday's low, 2075 gap fill;

RUT: below, 1189, last seen of crime, 1183, next CHVA;
         Above, 1198, low of yesterday, 1203.7, gap fill;

I will be conservative on selling RUT puts, I will pick couple of 2nd puts in SPX. I would sell call on a meaningful pop.

Wheat held above $5.00 overnight and my last wheat puts for Aug was closed after open. I will see which way the market will pin on expiration tomorrow.

My execution:

Wow, what a sell off. All of the major US indices were sliced 2% or more. My ES and RUT targets to the downside were punched through for more than 10 points. I added couple of puts spreads in SPX and RUT around noon as I thought it was another one percent day. I also made a mistake of selling Oct 2 SPX 1800 by looking at earlier expiration day. It got filled above my price. I also added 2nd set in SPX and RUT for Sept 2 and 3. My SPY Sept 3 186 naked puts for scalp was proven to be too early also. I sold it at $46 around noon but it went to high of 74 with volatility above 18. At one point my margin went near 10% left. I had to close a SPX 1 put at $2.7 to raise it. I may have to close more tomorrow if the sell off continues.

My order to close wheat for Aug was filled not too long after the opening. I will see which way the trade will pin on expiration day tomorrow.

I will focus on raising my margin and reduce my risk tomorrow. The selling may not be over yet. We may be looking at a 8-10% correction.

Fed Minute 8-19-15

My theses and plan:

Indices futures pulled back to VPOC of current CHVA overnight. Market may retest Monday's breakout area while awaiting Fed Minute this afternoon. All indices gaped down at open. My targets are:
ES: 2093 (gap) and 2098 above;  2075 and 2063 below;
RUT: 1214.3 (gap) and 1217 above, 1201 and 1192 below;

I will stay out indices option selling until 30 min after the release of Fed Min. I will spend time to work on my wheat and corn positions.

Corn and wheat are holding up but no drastic price actions yet. I have one wheat position left for this month to be exited. I will double check to make sure no any other positions left in my holdings.

My execution:

Indices went through a N shape path with Fed Mins boosted a 1.5% down day to b/e briefly, then gave most of it back. ES/NQ and RUT closed below their break out points of Monday. However, they are all within their current balance area with somewhat bearish tones. I had 8 indices spread orders got filled. Some calls and puts were closed during the swings. I had couple of new, 2nd puts positions filled at closing.

Corn and wheat were still range bounded. My 470 wheat put was closed. I rolled over my wheat 490 with 50% profit. There is wheat 485 puts left which I found during my double checking positions. I will closed it tomorrow.

Volatility is up. I need to be more conservative. Be ware of seasonality of late Sept and Oct which often bring corrections. I may consider to sell more calls for that period when market pops.

Follow Through? 8-18-15

My Theses and Plan:

Indices futures stayed up overnight despite 6% drop in Shanghai. ES may be moving to its next balance area if it close above 2108 today. It may also come down to auction some thin area it left yesterday. My targets for ES are:
Below, 2092 (o/n low), 2085 (edge of CHVA),
Above, 2105 (b/o O/N high) and 2112;

RUT is stocked in the mid of its CLVA of 1202 and 1231. It's weaker than SPX and NQ. I may sell more calls than puts. My targets for RUT today:
Below: 1216 and 1211;
Above: 1228, 1232 and move into CHVA if closes above 1233.

My plan is to sell both sides since it appears a choppy session. I will try to close more positions to lock in profit.

Grains lowered overnight. I will try to close my current month positions. It may get volatile again toward end of this week with some pining actions.

My execution:

No follow through in indices today. They were range bounded within upper part of yesterday. I only sold couple RUT Sept puts in my ET accounts. Perhaps market is waiting to read tea leafs of Fed Minutes tomorrow. I better to hold off my indices trades after the Fed minutes released tomorrow. I can spend some time to deal with my wheat and corn positions in the morning.

Wheat and corn are still weak. I had one wheat 460 exited. I need to double check my grains' positions tomorrow.

Surge on Monday 8-17-15

Indices surged this morning after the 1st hour testing of last week's low. I don't know if there was any news driven it. I closed couple of bear calls since my margin is on the call side now. I also closed a 2nd set on put side, plus scaled a half of SPY. I will try to sell on both sides tomorrow depending on the directions of indices.

Grains were still trying to recover from the damages of last week's USDA report. I have to close my wheat positions for this month before this Thursday.

Weekly Review 8-15-15

It was a normal profitable week with $1,600 profit only. The indices were still in range but vol was up to 15 with Yuan devaluation. Equities ended higher for the week on Greece's bail out deal approval. ES/SPX & RUT are still in the down channels within their current CHVA. RUT  appears weaker than ES and NQ. I need to keep in mind of possible FED rate hike in Sept and seasonality of OCT.

Grains haven't recovered from the sell of after USDA's WASDE report. I didn't have much activity in this front. I will only keep a small, limited positions in grains until I am completely out of the market in options selling. Grains are more suitable for a trend play.

I am thinking about to take 50% profit on my put positions of two entries on each expiration period. My holding period has been longer (Avg 36 vs 22 days) in 2015 than 2014. There are variables in grains holding. The trading procedure may be like:

1. Enter a GTC order to exit 1/2 position at 50% profit after established a put positions;
2. Try to sell a 2nd set of puts with my rules of engagement;
3. Enter another GTC order for the rest of 1/2 position at 75-85% of profit if the order for the first half is executed or the 2nd set is filled.
4. Reducing margin is a secondary consideration on exciting both puts and calls.

Another Friday 8-14-15

I didn't write my morning again due to Alissa's early to school and my scheduled meeting with a lawyer. It was a choppy day and inside day for both ES/SPX and RUT. I was lucky as I opened and closed some spreads on both sides before I headed to the meeting.

Corn and wheat inched up but I didn't get any fill. I will close or roll my wheat positions next week as they are near expiration.

Follow Up 8-13-15

My plan and hypos:

ES stayed up overnight only to pull back to yesterday's upper range before open. It's back to the upper side of CHVA. RUT is back into its CLVA after hitting CHVA below yesterday. It may continue to fill in current CLVA.
My ES ranges are: Above: 2092, 2100, Below: 2073 and 2065;
RUT ranges are: Above 1219 gap fill and 1228 at upper CLVA; Below: 1202 and 1199;

I will try to close some calls on weakness and sell puts with available margin.

Grains are exploring directions after USDA shock yesterday. I will wait to see if we get a clear picture.

My execution:

ES hit my first down side target after open then bounced back. It didn't break above my upper target. RUT was weaker on both side and had a stronger sell off before closing. I didn't get any fill on either side. I closed some positions on both sides. It was a slow day overall.

Corn and wheat pushed up some but were not strong enough to change their trends. Today's export data was weak for most grains. I tried to sell some calls and rollover one Oct put.  I didn't have any order filled. I will try again tomorrow.

Ripple Effects of Yuan 8-12-15

I didn't write down my plan today since I had to help June to load her staff back to her school.

Futures dropped sharply overnight on further decline of Yuan. US indices futures stayed below yesterday's low prior to RTH. My margin was tight so I didn't place many orders to sell puts. After testing the lower end of current balance area indices staged a turn around in the afternoon. All majors moved back to yesterday's range. I sold couple of calls in SYX and RUT. Now I am balanced in margins. I will try to close more positions to free up my buying power.

Corn and wheat dropped sharply after USDA report. Corn made a new low of current contract at 3.46. It closed back at prior low and may be forming a bear flag. Wheat is not too far from making a new low either. I will wait for a day or two to see where this market is going.

Pull Back in Play 8-11-15

My plan and Hypos:

Chinese Central Bank announced to devalue RMB by 2%, the most one day move in several years. Indices futures turned down in reacting to the news. ES was down 15 points, 0.6% before open. VIX is up 7%. ES is still in its CHVA. There is a gap below at 2072 and a gap above at 2098. ES and SPX may be filling in this area for today. RUT gaped down but within in the CLVA. I plan to sell puts on break of overnight low for ES/SPX and RUT. Also try to close some calls and puts positions during market swings.

Corn and wheat gave back most of yesterday's gains and retesting their break out area. Trades are preparing for tomorrow's USDA report. It could go either way. I have orders in place to reduce my positions.

My execution:

US indices followed through the shock of Yuan devaluation. After indices futures broke overnight low I sold some puts for late Sept. Couple of my calls closed too. It was nice closing to the up side. However indices futures gave all gains back tonight after Asian markets open. Apparently the Yuan devaluation has much bigger impact than I thought. Is it a start of another round of currency war? Let's see what European market will bring tonight. I will observe my risk and be conservative tomorrow.

Corn and wheat gave back most of yesterday's gain. It appeared to be another clear deck swiping actions before USDA report tomorrow. I will not trade within the first hour after release of the report.