My Hypotheses and Plan:
1. ES/SPX: ES held up well overnight range from 1932-1947. It looks ready to challenge yesterday's high of 1955 which is the lower edge of a CHVA. Are we going to have a pull back or blast off day? My upper target is at 1961 which would bring ES into the CHVA. The down side is first at overnight low of 1932 and gap fill of 1925. Market could be spooked on Ebola news or anything else. I will try some credit spread in Etrade and IB small acct to establish positions for Nov.
2. Grains options expiring today for Oct's contracts. Their up trend is still in place. I will mainly watch my positions and take stops on Monday to let prices erode a bit more.
Today's ES/SPX price action reminded me of last fall, 2013. It was up 8 weeks in a roll starting in Oct as well. It's near the break down point now but still below BBM weekly. I didn't have any trade in indices. I am waiting for prices to get to Fib 78% or close above BBM weekly to sell bear calls or sell bull puts on any pull backs.
Grains had sharp selling on this option expiration day. It's totally a professional play which I suspected but didn't know how to play it. The three majors closed at their low of the day indicating possible further selling next week. My Oct grain options results were terrible. It revealed many of my weaknesses in trading. I will review them in my weekly review tomorrow.
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