Thursday, October 30, 2014

Against Fed? 10-30-14

I missed to write down today's plan after a delayed morning Trader Bite.

Fed ended QE 3 with some hawkish words regarding rate yesterday. Indices went down modestly yesterday. The general mood was bearish this morning. However market kept pushing up with a better than expected GDP at 3.5% v.s. estimated 3.1%. Earnings were good too. Month end window dressing and seasonality might help the market to stay up.

I made a mistake letting an error filled PUT call spread of 1150/60 stayed for two weeks. It got pushed ITM yesterday briefly yesterday.  My exit order got filled 4 out of 5 in the morning push down. I had to cancel the order and exit the pair separately and took a loss on it. Overall it was a $100 loss but the lesson is big. A. Correct a mistake as soon as possible. A profitable mistake is still a mistake. Not correcting it would reinforce a bad habit and break discipline.
B. Don't count on your luck on expiration week when my positions are near the money. I remember I got burned several times before playing scalp near the expiration date.

Grains had pull back after yesterday's advances. I had to take stops in my soybean and wheat bear calls. I also bought calls in soybean and wheat for next month to hedge my bear calls. I am still no clear pictures of the grain market. May be I should step aside to clear my head and let the market tell me where it is going. Otherwise, I am keep losing money by fighting to recover. I broke my rules of stopping out and let several positions sinking deeper in the water. The paper loss in soybean and wheat bear calls are over $10K now. I need to preserve my capital in order to survive and recover.


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