Start Planning 10-13-14

My plans for 10-13-14 on this Sunday 10-12-14

ES gaped down 10 points on Sunday night. It's hanging on this CLVA of 1868-1890. It's likely to cause SPX gap down on Monday morning unless European markets open with a big push up. Right now ES is outside of its BBL but RSI is still at 30 which is not quiet oversold yet. Fib 50% target of daily is at 1871 and CLVA low is at 1868 along with a trend line. I have ES bull puts of 1880 for next two weeks which are near money. Their premiums are at 4X losses. I will deal with this week's loss first. I will buy it back later tomorrow or when the trend of the day is clear. I will then sell a bull put 25-30 days out for $10-12 to recover a little more than 50% of the loss.

In SPX portfolio, a 1880 bull puts spreads in IB personal is in danger now since SPX was closed at 1906 down 22 points, 1.15% on last Friday. This order was entered before the sell off but a boredom trade since there was no volatility. I was eager to fill in the 2nd leg of I-Condor. Although a reversal shooting star bar was put in the day before but the price failed to close above BBM. I could have waited to the close to see a more clear trend. Anyway, I have to prepare to take stops for this position. Right now it's set at a -$4.65 spread per contract and I have 3 of them. My loss would be $370 each between 3-4X of my collected premiums.

VIX surged to 20.60 on Friday and is outside of BBH on both weekly and daily charts. However, my positions of 23 and 25 could be in danger now. I will leg up and prepare to take stops. I had couple of leg ups which were entered too early on Friday.

Grains opened lower on Sunday night but popped back to Friday's ranges before mid night now. I don't know if it's any news related. Right now the weather is a major factor that trade watches. Walsh Trading is still expecting a retest of contract low or a new low. I will set my current objectives of my Oct puts to break even since the USDA report didn't produce a sell off. We may have a season low for wheat now until Nov according to 10 yr seasonal. I may give corn and soybean a little more time until harvesting over 30% of completion.