Bounce 10-14-14

Indices bounced into prior day's range but mostly in the lower part of profile. Even such a weak bounce got pushed down in the afternoon. ES/SPX closed below their 200MA for the 2nd day now. It looks to me the sell off has another leg down. SPX is still hanging around its Fib 62% on weekly and 78% may be tested. RUT had a nice 1.17% up day although it was faded from above 2%. Let's watch if RUT can lead market up since it was the first went down back in July. I filled a RUT week 5 bear call for the 2nd leg of Iron Condor in IB personal account. QII account didn't get filled due to my late placement. I need to have a better working process during the market hours. I am more responsive than initiative. May work on it this weekend.

I was still not aggressive enough to exit my 1880 credit spreads. It was close but SPX got faded in the afternoon. I didn't promptly adjust my exit price before I left for school. It's now ITM again. I will work on it aggressively tomorrow.

Grains broke out Friday's high set after USDA report. Corn had the strongest gain of 2.6% and close at the high. All these moves were unexpected. I failed to take actions to protect my profit. I was so sure that I was going to catch a big fish this time. I ended up empty handed for Oct. I exited couple of wheat and soybean Dec and March for rollover and locking in some profit.

My plan for tomorrow:

1. SPX/ES. I will try to exit my SPX 1880 credit spread if we get a bounce near or break today's high. Also exit ES 1850 week 4 in S-5 and try to sell another far OTM and at least 3 weeks out. SPX's downside target is around 1860 which is Fib 78% RT and the end of resistance area.  This is also the 50 SMA weekly which provided support for the last two times. The upside targets are today's of 1899 and 200 SMA at 1906. I will sell another set of bull put spread far OTM and time in both IB and Etrade if we get to the lower target.

2. Watch VIX 23 and 25 for possible stop loss. They are over 1x but below 2x losses for now.

3. Exit some grains' bear call positions to release some margin, especially in wheat and soybean. My available margin is down to $36K which may withstand one more shock but not two.