Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Grains Disappointing 11-11-14

My plan:

ES popped up to 2039 overnight. It pulls back in attempt to close the gap before open. The 2050 target is only about 15 handles away. The bull is relentless. I will try to sell bear call spreads again on a new push up and bell put spreads if we get a pull back in ES/SPX and RUT. Overnight low is at 2032, 2nd support of CLVN at 2029.

Grains held up well overnight. Watch for today's price action to see how the market interprets the WASDE report. So far it looks neutral. We may get into a range bound period again.

My play:

It was another slow day for indices. My support level 1 for ES was hit and bounced. Not enough sellers to push it further. We didn't get a pull back I have hoped for. No orders got filled today. I also tried to roll up my SPX bull put from 1710 to 1850 in order to lock in the majority of profit. I will try it again tomorrow.

Grains popped today led by soy meal and soybean. Soybean broke last week's high and closed above 1060. There was no follow through on selling after yesterday's report. I should refer to seasonal charts more than 2009 charts now.  My bear calls of Jan 1060 is deeply underwater now. I made 2 key in errors in grains today. I guess I was distracted and frustrated. I really need to step back and reduce my activities in grains. It appears that the trend in grains is tilted up now.

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