My plan:
ES skewed slightly lower overnight after making a new high intra-day yesterday. There is a gap below 2002 to 1989. I don't know if the market can close it today though. I must close my 2005 bear call today before the election result. Mid term election has a positive seasonality back to 50s according to FT.
Grains dropped overnight as well. It's not quit confirmed the return of down trend yet. I will continued to manage my risk and lock in profit.
The play:
ES/SPX broke overnight low after open and crossed last Friday's low before lunch. I thought it was going to close the gap of last Thursday and Friday. I had several bull puts and spreads placed but none was filled. Buyers stepped in before it even touched last Thursday's high. I suspect it left some room for the next push down and bulls didn't want the price get into balance area below. I took the planed stop of 2003 on today's pull back. It was the punishment to me for not obey my stopping rule of 2-3X. I paid 7X of loss today. I must break this psychological pain point of taking stops at smaller losses.
Grains dropped again today. Corn and soybean looked firmly broken on daily. Wheat is still holding on the trend line. Most of my Dec puts exited on stop losses. I am still waiting for the next shoe to drop. I bought couple more puts for this month and next month for next week's USDA report and next leg down on huge crop numbers. I will try on soybean tomorrow. It's hard to tell what wheat's next move. I will need to study its seasonal chart further.
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