Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Move Up When It Can't Go Down 11-18-14

My plan:

Indices couldn't go down yesterday indicated their upside potential. SPX touched many's target of 2050 after open this morning. ES made a new high of 2048. Bollinger Bands on daily show there are more room to the upside to 2060 area but MACD is falling. RUT is holding its bull flag recovered yesterday's loss. I will try to sell SPX, RUT bear calls spreads on a surge with smaller size. They may be at higher end of current balance range.

Grains opened lower in small range. Corn is retesting yesterday's low and the low of current CLVA. Could it go down from 375 to 365 of CHVA? I will watch for it and get out some bear calls if it happens. Wheat is forming a HS in daily. I will get some relief if it plays out. In the meantime I will roll over some bear calls up or to the bull puts. Soybean is retesting yesterday's break out area. It looks like a IHS to the upside or holding the low of last Friday. I will play the same strategy of wheat.

My play:

ES/SPX shoot up to reach the psychological target of 2050 in the first 2 hrs of open. Another new high was set despite there was a 7-8 points pull back before closing. I tried several of bear call spreads in SPX and RUT but still no fill. I had a Dec 12, 2115 ES bear call filled in S-5. The 2015 is deeply ITM now. I have to exit it in the next couple days. RUT still couldn't get cross the Sept top. I will keep trying base on my rules of engagement patiently.

Grains continued to consolidate to the down side in small ranges. I tried to roll over some of my soybean from bear calls to bull puts for the first time. My assumption is that soybean may have set its season low of $9 on strong demand. Corn and wheat still hold up on weekly despite daily formation of HS. I closed my last Nov wheat position with a small profit. I still don't have a clear picture and plan for corn. After the roll over of soybeans I have a little more breath room for my margin.

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