Monday, November 17, 2014

Late Is Better Than Never 11-17-14

My plan:

I am late again on this Monday morning. I have had a habit of watching shows online at late night.

Futures dropped after Sunday's open possibly on Japan's growth contraction and China's bad loan numbers. ES breached last week's double bottom of 2027. I got up late this morning. ES already pushed back into last Friday's range since European session. ES closed the gap of overnight and ticked through O/N high. Bulls are still in control so far. RUT is also bull flagging on daily after pinched through Sept's high. I will try to sell bull put spread in SPX and RUT if we get futher weakness and looking at possible bear call spread if price come to good levels. But it looks like a choppy session around the last CHVA so far.

Grains pulled back overnight but nothing decisive so far. I need to focus on any contracts I have left for this month expiration.

My play:

ES/SPX pushed back to last Friday's range after open. Sellers made several attempt to push it out of the range but buyers responded swiftly. Buyers are still in control till the end. ES is not ready to go down yet based on today's action. It may have more upside before going down. The earning season provided a positive sentiment and this Friday is monthly option expiration day. I tried to sell RUT's credit spread and naked RUT of Karen's setup since RUT was down over 05% most of the day. I didn't get any fill. RUT closed near low of the day. I may have a chance to get a better fill if it continues to pull back in next couple of days.

Grains continued to consolidate. Corn recovered part of overnight loss. The weekly pole is still holding but today's export data showed weakness in corn sales. Soybean popped back to last Friday's range on strong export numbers. Both weekly and daily bars have shown strong rejection from upside. Wheat came back to retested last Friday's break out point. It held so far. I had two corn puts stop loss filled. Tried to roll couple of bear calls in wheat and soybean but no fill. I will try it more aggressively tomorrow.

I felt strong frustration building when I don't have any fills in indices. ES/SPX have been in small trading ranges for 5 days now.

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