My plan:
ES gaped up 18 point on ECB talks overnight. It was a continuation of yesterday's close. My 2015 looks so low down there and deep in the water. Market has a way to teach undisciplined participants hard lessons. I am sitting at a possible 8X loss over my original stop limit. I have been hold and hope while drowning. I must exit this position before 3:30 as I expect an unwinding options toward later today. The risk is that it may go higher since the market is so energized. I may sell a put or call to recover partially.
Grains have held most of yesterday's range. They may have more upside to go. My goal is to rearrange my positions to reduce risk.
My play:
My hypotheses one played out in ES today. ES/SPX started falling after a brief high this morning. I was able to exit my 2015 only one point higher than today's low. The damage is still severer compare $1900 vs 1500 would have been yesterday and 1100 last week. I still don't have what it takes to take stops and win this game. It's up to me to overcome this barrier. I had only one 1940, Dec 12 ES bull put got filled. We may see some put back next week if today's high is really a head fake. The rejection of high looked decisive but being an options expiration day maybe misleading.
Grains had similar price pattern as Indices on this expiration day. Other than soybean against the pack closed at high of the day, corn and wheat gave up most of gains today. I tried two new strategies: Risk reversal and debit spread. I have been learning debit spread for a week but haven't quit figured out the exit part. Risk reversal was discovered while buying directional options with consideration of reducing cost. It should be used carefully since it could cost loss in both side if a major change against me.
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