Indices sold off to end the year. ES/SPX made a 20 points drop. Does it indicate that we may see a worse sell off than last Jan? I sold a SPX and RUT in Karen's style for Feb expiration. I wanted to take the new years day and weekend time decay but it may not matter that much since the dates are far out. I will monitor the risk. I also sold couple of VIX as I didn't expect ES would push through S2 and CHVN. It eventually punched through and I went ahead sold 2nd set at 35.
Grains sold off as well. Soybean finally gave up the range. Corn and wheat went thought their marks of 4 and 6 respectively. I locked in some bear call profit today.
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Greece Back On The Stage Again 12-30-14
It was expected as a slow day as the year end nears. However, market pulled back to yesterday's low overnight. Apparently European markets were under pressure as Greece is in government turmoil again. The promising of ES 2100 is faded away. I had to close my last SPY 211 call with a small profit while price is falling this morning. I noticed that I was influenced by fear of missing as I was chasing the prices from 155 to 125. I also took stop of the RUT bear call 1220. I don't regret it was a bite early since I followed my plan and rules. The loss was 1.3X, better than I expected. I have to pay more attentions to the bigger pictures and context of trading locations.
Grains continued to fall. Corn and wheat broke down from their current daily uptrend. They look like hanging on a thread from a big fall. Soybean broke yesterday's low but still holding the trend. I reduced two more positions in wheat by reversing them to a bear call in 2:1 ratio. I need to pay more attention to my bull puts now.
Grains continued to fall. Corn and wheat broke down from their current daily uptrend. They look like hanging on a thread from a big fall. Soybean broke yesterday's low but still holding the trend. I reduced two more positions in wheat by reversing them to a bear call in 2:1 ratio. I need to pay more attention to my bull puts now.
Monday, December 29, 2014
Choppy Grains 12-29-14
Indices futures had a small sell off overnight. Buyers stepped in before US open. Trades appears determined to make more new highs before the year end. I closed 1880 bull put for this week to free more margin for new trades. I didn't exit my RUT bear call spread hope for a pull back but didn't happen. I may face a bigger loss tomorrow. But I must get out at 2-3X according to my rules.
Grains are choppy toward down side. Corn and soybean opened reaching new contract highs, then got rejected. Wheat is still hanging on the bear flag and a large HS pattern. It may break down soon if it can't lift itself up in the edge of current up channel. I made 3 risk reversal trades in wheat from bull puts to bear calls and reduced my long positions in March and May. There were no fill in corn roll over orders. I will try again tomorrow. Soybean seems not ready to give up yet. Meals are holding up despite its overbought condition.
Grains are choppy toward down side. Corn and soybean opened reaching new contract highs, then got rejected. Wheat is still hanging on the bear flag and a large HS pattern. It may break down soon if it can't lift itself up in the edge of current up channel. I made 3 risk reversal trades in wheat from bull puts to bear calls and reduced my long positions in March and May. There were no fill in corn roll over orders. I will try again tomorrow. Soybean seems not ready to give up yet. Meals are holding up despite its overbought condition.
Saturday, December 27, 2014
Weekly Review 12-27-14
It was a Christmas holiday week. Markets had irregular schedules and low volume. Indices continued making new highs. My indices options produced most winners in bull puts and recovered losers. I made another similar mistake by missing minus sign in a credit spread. Took a stop in ES based on my rules didn't feel too bad. I had anxiety of wanting to enter recovery order right the way. I can be more patience next time and wait for a better entry base on market conditions.
As for grain complex the losses continued. Wheat had some sharp movement due to Russia's export restrictions. The hard lessons I have learned: 1. I jumped in a market I didn't know enough of it. 2. Grain markets are very volatile and seasonal. 3. I didn't have a strong discipline to properly manage my risk. I rolled over so many times on both long and short causing more losses and extended my holding periods.
I followed my plan to reduce my holdings in grains. The positions sizes became more manageable and my margin backed up to a relatively safe levels. I will eventually reduce my grain trading to a secondary level.
It's time for my annual review and plan for 2015 next week.
As for grain complex the losses continued. Wheat had some sharp movement due to Russia's export restrictions. The hard lessons I have learned: 1. I jumped in a market I didn't know enough of it. 2. Grain markets are very volatile and seasonal. 3. I didn't have a strong discipline to properly manage my risk. I rolled over so many times on both long and short causing more losses and extended my holding periods.
I followed my plan to reduce my holdings in grains. The positions sizes became more manageable and my margin backed up to a relatively safe levels. I will eventually reduce my grain trading to a secondary level.
It's time for my annual review and plan for 2015 next week.
Friday, December 26, 2014
The Day After Christmas 12-16-14
It's expected to be a low volume, slow day. ES/SPX grind up to 2089 new high and closed at 2084. It's eyeing the year's target of 2100. RUT reached previous high of 2015 set in Sept. It looks ready to break out. My RUT bear spreads of 1220 expired today but the one for next week is threatened at 1215. RUT can easily break out and put me ITM. I will take the stop next week base on my rules. I made a error entry in RUT bear puts again. I forgot to place - sign and sold a spread at asking price of $10. I placed an exit order waiting.
Grains had different story. Corn and soybean pushed back to pre Christmas Eve level, like there were no sell off happened and backed into their trend lines. Wheat couldn't lift itself up and stayed near the range low. I closed two more corn bull puts for next month and placed a risk reversal of soybean Mar 890 to 1210 for a small profit. I will review this week over the weekend.
Grains had different story. Corn and soybean pushed back to pre Christmas Eve level, like there were no sell off happened and backed into their trend lines. Wheat couldn't lift itself up and stayed near the range low. I closed two more corn bull puts for next month and placed a risk reversal of soybean Mar 890 to 1210 for a small profit. I will review this week over the weekend.
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
Christmas Eve Reversal 12-24-14
I didn't expect much happening on this Christmas Eve. Equities stayed in a very small range without making any new highs. My target in SPY calls didn't get fill. Now I am risking of giving up my gains as their expatriation is next Wednesday. I have two more day's left. I closed a ES 1920 of this Friday to make room for new trade. I got filled two ES bull puts at 1880, 1900 for week 3 and 4. My plan is to let them decay during this holiday week. I have over 8% for four weeks.
Grains had unexpected sell off. Corn, soybean and wheat broke their trend lines, down 1.39%, 1% and 4% respectively. I locked in some profits in bear side of corn and wheat. I need to watch down side risk now, especially in wheat as there are many contracts down there. January's grain report will be critical. I should consider to reduce my bull puts to reduce my risk exposure.
Grains had unexpected sell off. Corn, soybean and wheat broke their trend lines, down 1.39%, 1% and 4% respectively. I locked in some profits in bear side of corn and wheat. I need to watch down side risk now, especially in wheat as there are many contracts down there. January's grain report will be critical. I should consider to reduce my bull puts to reduce my risk exposure.
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Last Pop For Christmas? 12-23-14
My plan:
Indices futures popped on 3rd quarter GDP revised to 5% this morning. ES is siting on a all time high of 2083 before open. I will try to close a ES 1900 this week expiration and look for sell a month out ES or SPY. No fade the pop for now.
Grains are still in small ranges. Wheat tested support / CLVN at 622 and held. Corn and soybean maintained slight bullish postures. I will continue looking for opportunities to lock in profits and reduce risk.
My execution:
I closed 3 corn positions and 1 each soybean and wheat. The soybean was a stop loss of a bought put. I also rolled down two wheat bull puts to lock in profit. Bought a corn call of next month with a risk reversal to hedge my bear calls.
No trade in indices. My stops and targets are in place. Couple of my RUT bear spreads are shaky and need to be monitored closely. I tried to sell IWM naked puts with Karen's set up but no fill. IWM requires less margin which suit my current margin condition.
Indices futures popped on 3rd quarter GDP revised to 5% this morning. ES is siting on a all time high of 2083 before open. I will try to close a ES 1900 this week expiration and look for sell a month out ES or SPY. No fade the pop for now.
Grains are still in small ranges. Wheat tested support / CLVN at 622 and held. Corn and soybean maintained slight bullish postures. I will continue looking for opportunities to lock in profits and reduce risk.
My execution:
I closed 3 corn positions and 1 each soybean and wheat. The soybean was a stop loss of a bought put. I also rolled down two wheat bull puts to lock in profit. Bought a corn call of next month with a risk reversal to hedge my bear calls.
No trade in indices. My stops and targets are in place. Couple of my RUT bear spreads are shaky and need to be monitored closely. I tried to sell IWM naked puts with Karen's set up but no fill. IWM requires less margin which suit my current margin condition.
Monday, December 22, 2014
Christmas Week 12-22-14
My plan:
This entry is 3 hrs after open.
It's expected being a slow week as trades are unwinding for Christmas holiday week but new highs are still possible. Indices held up in a small range since open. I entered orders to close my IWM and SPY calls to lock in my profit, also to close bear calls in SPY and RUT to reduce my risks.
Grains are up slightly and support by fair export data. China approved for import GMO corn which may boost corn price in hopes of more export. People have been talking about the 2nd shoe to drop for two months but so far the prices have been other wise. My plan is to continue to reduce my positions and risks.
My execution:
Indices traded in a small range all day but ES touched a new high of 2078. I closed the last IWM call for a 350% return. The winner helps to recover my indices ETF losses earlier. I am managing my last SPY debt call spread and RUT bear call spread. One winner and one hopefully would break even.
Grains stayed in range too. Corn and soybean closed up few cents and wheat was up then down 1.25 cent. No order got filled.
Tomorrow is expected a slower day and market will close early.
This entry is 3 hrs after open.
It's expected being a slow week as trades are unwinding for Christmas holiday week but new highs are still possible. Indices held up in a small range since open. I entered orders to close my IWM and SPY calls to lock in my profit, also to close bear calls in SPY and RUT to reduce my risks.
Grains are up slightly and support by fair export data. China approved for import GMO corn which may boost corn price in hopes of more export. People have been talking about the 2nd shoe to drop for two months but so far the prices have been other wise. My plan is to continue to reduce my positions and risks.
My execution:
Indices traded in a small range all day but ES touched a new high of 2078. I closed the last IWM call for a 350% return. The winner helps to recover my indices ETF losses earlier. I am managing my last SPY debt call spread and RUT bear call spread. One winner and one hopefully would break even.
Grains stayed in range too. Corn and soybean closed up few cents and wheat was up then down 1.25 cent. No order got filled.
Tomorrow is expected a slower day and market will close early.
Saturday, December 20, 2014
Weekly Review 12-20-14
It was a week of turn around for equities. It has been a pattern of opposite push before FOMC. I have been more patience on not fighting the trend since I got burned so many times. Plus my available margins are low so I couldn't trade much in indices futures for the last couple of weeks. I got burned on VIX last Tuesday. My mistake was looking at wrong contract month so I let my guard down until the day before expiration. It coast me about $1500 for the mistake or the ignorance.
My losses continued to mount in grains. Wheat surged 7% for the week on Russian wheat export restriction. This pop really put me deeply underwater. My available margin was near 0 for two days. It was very stressful. I had to rollover and reverse more positions. Corn and soybean have weaken somewhat but mostly in range. I have decided to exit out soybean completely. Then limit my positions in corn and wheat until I can unwind them all together. It has been my biggest loss in trading. I followed my plan most of time in not adding new positions in grains. I need a more clear and disciplined trading plan for this volatile sector.
My losses continued to mount in grains. Wheat surged 7% for the week on Russian wheat export restriction. This pop really put me deeply underwater. My available margin was near 0 for two days. It was very stressful. I had to rollover and reverse more positions. Corn and soybean have weaken somewhat but mostly in range. I have decided to exit out soybean completely. Then limit my positions in corn and wheat until I can unwind them all together. It has been my biggest loss in trading. I followed my plan most of time in not adding new positions in grains. I need a more clear and disciplined trading plan for this volatile sector.
Friday, December 19, 2014
Grains Reversal? 12-19-14
My plan:
Indices futures moved up overnight. ES touched 2072 then pulled back to 2061 as this writing before open. It didn't make another gap to cross the all time high of 2075 but looks ready to challenge it today. Hypo two is for ES to test below 2025. It will be resting and gathering energy for a new high. RUT appears to ready to cross its current high to next balance area. My plan is to manage my bear call positions and directional calls in SPX and IWM.
Grains rolled down somewhat cross board. Wheat went down 2.6% and came back to the break out area. Corn and soybean don't have the same kind of break down. They are still holding in their range. My plan is to deleverage my grain positions and lock in profits with 25-50% gains without increase size. I will try to exit most of my soybean positions today and complete my withdraw from it by next week.
My execution:
Indices traded in a small range but held up. I closed my SPX Dec 26, 2020 call for a loss since I didn't want to hold it over the weekend. We could see another push up next week. I didn't add any bear calls. My IWM and SPY calls have appreciated well so far. I will close them next week or hold a little longer since they are both ITM now.
Grains shown some weakness except corn closed back above CHVN. Wheat dropped 3+%. I closed 5 soybean positions, I want to wait a little longer to see if wheat would come down more. My losses in wheat and corn are still too high. I am still stressed and need to rethink about my approaches in grains. With reduced size and equity up my margins are back to a safe level for now.
Indices futures moved up overnight. ES touched 2072 then pulled back to 2061 as this writing before open. It didn't make another gap to cross the all time high of 2075 but looks ready to challenge it today. Hypo two is for ES to test below 2025. It will be resting and gathering energy for a new high. RUT appears to ready to cross its current high to next balance area. My plan is to manage my bear call positions and directional calls in SPX and IWM.
Grains rolled down somewhat cross board. Wheat went down 2.6% and came back to the break out area. Corn and soybean don't have the same kind of break down. They are still holding in their range. My plan is to deleverage my grain positions and lock in profits with 25-50% gains without increase size. I will try to exit most of my soybean positions today and complete my withdraw from it by next week.
My execution:
Indices traded in a small range but held up. I closed my SPX Dec 26, 2020 call for a loss since I didn't want to hold it over the weekend. We could see another push up next week. I didn't add any bear calls. My IWM and SPY calls have appreciated well so far. I will close them next week or hold a little longer since they are both ITM now.
Grains shown some weakness except corn closed back above CHVN. Wheat dropped 3+%. I closed 5 soybean positions, I want to wait a little longer to see if wheat would come down more. My losses in wheat and corn are still too high. I am still stressed and need to rethink about my approaches in grains. With reduced size and equity up my margins are back to a safe level for now.
Thursday, December 18, 2014
Follow Through 12-18-14
My plan:
Indices futures pushed up strongly after European opened. ES had a 30 point gap before open. All of my indices bull puts positions are in good shape now. My task is to manage my bear call positions although I have only 3 in RUT. Be cautious on adding any new bear calls as the Christmas party starting now. We may see a new high before the year end. I don't have enough margins to trade in IB for now. I will use Etrade and IB personal account for indices.
Grains moved up overnight leading by wheat with another 2% up. I am deeper in the water now. I am laying out some risk reversal. A hard lesson is learned a hard way. I am in risk of being forced out of this business.
My execution:
Equity market moved up strongly today. ES/SPX went up about 100 points in the last two days. I didn't do anything to fade the market, rather enjoy to see my indices positions to appreciate. The last two VIX positins of 25 and 26 ended worthless which covered part of my losses. Letting them expiring near the money is too risky and I shouldn't do it again. My primary role is a risk/safety manager.
Grains are showing some signs of weakening. I had to rollover and reverse some of my wheat and corn bear calls to reduce my margin which is dangerously low. Some of the positions are 2nd or 3rd time rolled over which means I took losses once or twice already. I got slapped on both directions. I noticed that some of the bear calls I didn't take stops when they reached my stop limit originally. They eventually snowballed. I think I have too many positions and markets to be be managed effectively. I may exit my soybean positions all together to break even and release some margins as a starter. I will map it out tomorrow.
Indices futures pushed up strongly after European opened. ES had a 30 point gap before open. All of my indices bull puts positions are in good shape now. My task is to manage my bear call positions although I have only 3 in RUT. Be cautious on adding any new bear calls as the Christmas party starting now. We may see a new high before the year end. I don't have enough margins to trade in IB for now. I will use Etrade and IB personal account for indices.
Grains moved up overnight leading by wheat with another 2% up. I am deeper in the water now. I am laying out some risk reversal. A hard lesson is learned a hard way. I am in risk of being forced out of this business.
My execution:
Equity market moved up strongly today. ES/SPX went up about 100 points in the last two days. I didn't do anything to fade the market, rather enjoy to see my indices positions to appreciate. The last two VIX positins of 25 and 26 ended worthless which covered part of my losses. Letting them expiring near the money is too risky and I shouldn't do it again. My primary role is a risk/safety manager.
Grains are showing some signs of weakening. I had to rollover and reverse some of my wheat and corn bear calls to reduce my margin which is dangerously low. Some of the positions are 2nd or 3rd time rolled over which means I took losses once or twice already. I got slapped on both directions. I noticed that some of the bear calls I didn't take stops when they reached my stop limit originally. They eventually snowballed. I think I have too many positions and markets to be be managed effectively. I may exit my soybean positions all together to break even and release some margins as a starter. I will map it out tomorrow.
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
FOMC 12-17-14
My plan:
Indices futures held at lower portion of yesterday's range overnight. All eyes are on FOMC. It could break the market either way. ES is park right on Fib 38.2. The next down target would be Fib 50 at 1940/1947 for ES and SPX respectively. I plan to roll my SPX 1930 from Dec 26 to 31 since it's over 3X now. I will try to reduce my risk before FOMC announcement and won't trade in the 1st hr after the announcement.
Grains moved up overnight on Russian's wheat export restrictions. Wheat retested yesterday's high. It may firmly break Fib 50% RT for the year's entire move. I will continue to reverse my underwater positions. Corn and soybean were up slightly overnight with wheat. soybean looks to break down and corn may follow soybean or wheat.
My executions:
Indices steadily moved up in yesterday's range before FOMC. ES/SPX pushed to yesterday's high after the meeting announcement. The fact that ES/NQ couldn't close above yesterday's high presented a possibility of retrace back to the lows. Something I need to watch for. I set a rollover for SPX 1930 to year end 1890 didn't get filled until the announcement. I forgot to adjust my price from $30 to -$30 as I planned. A mistake costed $60. I also exited ES 1955 and 1950 this week in S-5 just in case a retest low in the next two days. I replaced them with 1900 and 1880 respectively for the next two weeks out. I sold a RUT bear call of the year end to make a Iron condor in my personal acct in IB. The ones I put in Etrade didn't get fill. My IWM calls started to working out since RUT/IWM broke last three days' highs. I scaled out one at 30% proven to be too early. I will close it before this Friday. Over all, I was calm and clear in handling my indices positions while recognizing my emotions.
Grains are not pretty for me. Wheat surged over 20 handles and I feel like to through up. I am totally underwater in my bear calls. Corn and soybean are holding up. I will wait to see what's in tomorrow's export report. I closed my soybean call options while thinking about waiting for tomorrow. Let's see how much it will cost me on this one. I will continue to reverse my wheat position from bear call to bull put. I missed a fill today. I was stressed out with the wheat situation.
Indices futures held at lower portion of yesterday's range overnight. All eyes are on FOMC. It could break the market either way. ES is park right on Fib 38.2. The next down target would be Fib 50 at 1940/1947 for ES and SPX respectively. I plan to roll my SPX 1930 from Dec 26 to 31 since it's over 3X now. I will try to reduce my risk before FOMC announcement and won't trade in the 1st hr after the announcement.
Grains moved up overnight on Russian's wheat export restrictions. Wheat retested yesterday's high. It may firmly break Fib 50% RT for the year's entire move. I will continue to reverse my underwater positions. Corn and soybean were up slightly overnight with wheat. soybean looks to break down and corn may follow soybean or wheat.
My executions:
Indices steadily moved up in yesterday's range before FOMC. ES/SPX pushed to yesterday's high after the meeting announcement. The fact that ES/NQ couldn't close above yesterday's high presented a possibility of retrace back to the lows. Something I need to watch for. I set a rollover for SPX 1930 to year end 1890 didn't get filled until the announcement. I forgot to adjust my price from $30 to -$30 as I planned. A mistake costed $60. I also exited ES 1955 and 1950 this week in S-5 just in case a retest low in the next two days. I replaced them with 1900 and 1880 respectively for the next two weeks out. I sold a RUT bear call of the year end to make a Iron condor in my personal acct in IB. The ones I put in Etrade didn't get fill. My IWM calls started to working out since RUT/IWM broke last three days' highs. I scaled out one at 30% proven to be too early. I will close it before this Friday. Over all, I was calm and clear in handling my indices positions while recognizing my emotions.
Grains are not pretty for me. Wheat surged over 20 handles and I feel like to through up. I am totally underwater in my bear calls. Corn and soybean are holding up. I will wait to see what's in tomorrow's export report. I closed my soybean call options while thinking about waiting for tomorrow. Let's see how much it will cost me on this one. I will continue to reverse my wheat position from bear call to bull put. I missed a fill today. I was stressed out with the wheat situation.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Bears Are Back In Control 12-16-14
I missed to write my morning plan again. I was distracted by very low available margin after attended Trader Bite. I had to focus on closing some positions to make my margin back to a safe level.
Indices looked in terrible shape couple hours before open. It gave up yesterday's low touching the down trend line again. They started driving up after open. I had to close my RUT naked bull put of 1080 for a small loss to void a possible margin call as wheat was driving up. ES broke overnight high before lunch. Trades were talking about the much anticipated Christmas rally finally started. I though we are getting the pre FOMC positioning. Apparently bears stepped in when ES/SPX reached yesterday's high. Crude oil and Russia currency tumbling are two big negative factors. ES/SPX closed at a new low. It was the 5th day of sell off at closing. I was waiting for FOMC to provide a lift for the market. Now I guess I need to prepare for both scenarios. I have ES 955, 1950 bull puts of this week in dangers as ES closed at 1966. I will prepare to exit them tomorrow. I will pick up a later date to recover the losses at least partially.
I followed my plan to exit my year end ES bull put of 1950 during the morning's push up. I was still too emotional on the exit and entry, mainly the fear of missing. But I didn't it even though imperfectly. I made a big mistake in handling VIX. I had been looking at March contract as references to my bear call options. Until the later afternoon sell off I noticed VIX 22,23 positions in both accounts were ITM. Trades were pushing to pin 23. I decided to close 22 and 23 at a 3-5X losses. The ignorance cost $1600. I have been doing poorly lately. I may need to step back and clear my head after tomorrow's FOMC. I don't need to have trades every day. I should look at bigger pictures, wait for trend confirmation and stick to my rules.
Grains pulled back some. I am still under a great deal of pressure especially in wheat and corn. I followed my plan to rollover and risk reverse my Jan bear calls. I also made a mistake of buying a Feb put influenced by a twitter. My main tasks in grains are reduce risk and positions.
Indices looked in terrible shape couple hours before open. It gave up yesterday's low touching the down trend line again. They started driving up after open. I had to close my RUT naked bull put of 1080 for a small loss to void a possible margin call as wheat was driving up. ES broke overnight high before lunch. Trades were talking about the much anticipated Christmas rally finally started. I though we are getting the pre FOMC positioning. Apparently bears stepped in when ES/SPX reached yesterday's high. Crude oil and Russia currency tumbling are two big negative factors. ES/SPX closed at a new low. It was the 5th day of sell off at closing. I was waiting for FOMC to provide a lift for the market. Now I guess I need to prepare for both scenarios. I have ES 955, 1950 bull puts of this week in dangers as ES closed at 1966. I will prepare to exit them tomorrow. I will pick up a later date to recover the losses at least partially.
I followed my plan to exit my year end ES bull put of 1950 during the morning's push up. I was still too emotional on the exit and entry, mainly the fear of missing. But I didn't it even though imperfectly. I made a big mistake in handling VIX. I had been looking at March contract as references to my bear call options. Until the later afternoon sell off I noticed VIX 22,23 positions in both accounts were ITM. Trades were pushing to pin 23. I decided to close 22 and 23 at a 3-5X losses. The ignorance cost $1600. I have been doing poorly lately. I may need to step back and clear my head after tomorrow's FOMC. I don't need to have trades every day. I should look at bigger pictures, wait for trend confirmation and stick to my rules.
Grains pulled back some. I am still under a great deal of pressure especially in wheat and corn. I followed my plan to rollover and risk reverse my Jan bear calls. I also made a mistake of buying a Feb put influenced by a twitter. My main tasks in grains are reduce risk and positions.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Relief on Monday 12-15-14
My plan:
Indices opened without a gap down and held on the edge of CHVA. It has been steadily moving toward 2012-15, overnight high and mid of last Friday. The market may still retest the low or hold and chop until Wednesday's FOMC. Are we going to see the pattern of sell off in the closing repeat today?
Grains are still in slightly bullish mode. Wheat is against its seasonality with rumors of Russia might limit its wheat export.
My tasks of today is to manage my risks:
A. Take stops base on my rules and current market conditions. Replace my stops with FOTM positions to recovery my losses partially.
B. Reduce my margin amounts by closing some excessive positions.
C. Lock in profit in grains.
My executions:
The same pattern played out again for indices today. Tested up early then sellers pushed it down to new low. I remember it was like last FOMC they won't give up until the day before or the same day of FOMC. We may see another push down tomorrow or move to 2030 area to be nurture. I didn't have any filled today. I didn't want to barge to get fill. I missed the early push up to exit my ES and RUT positions. The hesitation cost me to miss my plan in indices. It was too early to tell if we could have a pull back.
Wheat and corn continued to push up only to give up some at closing. Soybean was down but in range due to a not very strong export data. I closed couple soybean Jan bear calls to raise my margin. I realized that I have been taking losses and rolling up my wheat bear call positions. I need to come up with a plan to reduce my positions and stop the losing cycle. May be to employ risk reversal whenever I have enough margin to do it.
Indices opened without a gap down and held on the edge of CHVA. It has been steadily moving toward 2012-15, overnight high and mid of last Friday. The market may still retest the low or hold and chop until Wednesday's FOMC. Are we going to see the pattern of sell off in the closing repeat today?
Grains are still in slightly bullish mode. Wheat is against its seasonality with rumors of Russia might limit its wheat export.
My tasks of today is to manage my risks:
A. Take stops base on my rules and current market conditions. Replace my stops with FOTM positions to recovery my losses partially.
B. Reduce my margin amounts by closing some excessive positions.
C. Lock in profit in grains.
My executions:
The same pattern played out again for indices today. Tested up early then sellers pushed it down to new low. I remember it was like last FOMC they won't give up until the day before or the same day of FOMC. We may see another push down tomorrow or move to 2030 area to be nurture. I didn't have any filled today. I didn't want to barge to get fill. I missed the early push up to exit my ES and RUT positions. The hesitation cost me to miss my plan in indices. It was too early to tell if we could have a pull back.
Wheat and corn continued to push up only to give up some at closing. Soybean was down but in range due to a not very strong export data. I closed couple soybean Jan bear calls to raise my margin. I realized that I have been taking losses and rolling up my wheat bear call positions. I need to come up with a plan to reduce my positions and stop the losing cycle. May be to employ risk reversal whenever I have enough margin to do it.
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Weekly Review 12-13-14
Equity market has been turning down for the week. I sensed it later last week but didn't have full conviction of it. I bought indices ETF puts then bought calls on a up day. I got wipe sawed on both side for lack of plan and flexibility to go with market. Indices had the worst week to the down side in 2014 according to CNBC. It didn't feel like it. I thought that last Nov's pull back was more severe. I waited to put in bull puts later last week. I entered some naked SPY bull puts earlier this week in Etrade. It turned out to be too early. Then I was fooled by Thursday's up push only to face a later afternoon sell off. Market seems in panicking mode with crude oil falling off cliff and below $60 now. I underestimated the down turn again this time.
I need to look at bigger pictures and use daily closing as my confirmation for short term trend. I still have a day trader's mentality paying to much attention for every swings of hourly charts. Starting next week, I will have to use daily and weekly charts, along with Fib, B bang and MACDs for my analysis.
USDA WASDE Report of this month didn't produce any large swings in grain market. The three major crops turned up at end of the week. I followed my plan of not increasing my positions in grains. I managed to lock in my profit positions, mostly in bull puts. However, most of my bear calls are under pressures now. It appears that I am going to get hit on the bear side after the hits of bull side last summer. I am considering to completely get out of bear calls. Should I step aside and wait? I will look at the total losses and come up with a plan this weekend. My available margin are low too.
My plan for next week:
1. Take stops in my indices. Then wait for further downward thrust to take recovery positions. I already missed a exit of ES bull put based on my plan. I must overcome the psychological pain of taking stops in order to be successful in trading.
2. Rise some margin, cash to shore off my positions in case we have much further pull back. Transfer some equity positions into my IB account if I have to.
3. Stay patient and be disciplined. Wait for daily closing as my confirmation of trend changes. No panic or rush, just follow my plan and rules.
I need to look at bigger pictures and use daily closing as my confirmation for short term trend. I still have a day trader's mentality paying to much attention for every swings of hourly charts. Starting next week, I will have to use daily and weekly charts, along with Fib, B bang and MACDs for my analysis.
USDA WASDE Report of this month didn't produce any large swings in grain market. The three major crops turned up at end of the week. I followed my plan of not increasing my positions in grains. I managed to lock in my profit positions, mostly in bull puts. However, most of my bear calls are under pressures now. It appears that I am going to get hit on the bear side after the hits of bull side last summer. I am considering to completely get out of bear calls. Should I step aside and wait? I will look at the total losses and come up with a plan this weekend. My available margin are low too.
My plan for next week:
1. Take stops in my indices. Then wait for further downward thrust to take recovery positions. I already missed a exit of ES bull put based on my plan. I must overcome the psychological pain of taking stops in order to be successful in trading.
2. Rise some margin, cash to shore off my positions in case we have much further pull back. Transfer some equity positions into my IB account if I have to.
3. Stay patient and be disciplined. Wait for daily closing as my confirmation of trend changes. No panic or rush, just follow my plan and rules.
Friday, December 12, 2014
Lower Lows 12-12-14
My plan:
Indices futures went down natch lower overnight. They may test lower and return to a nurture area giving the Friday and next week's FOMC uncertainties. Hypo 2 would be a hard break to test 2005-1997 CHVA. I don't have a lot of room to add my positions except preparing for stops. I will release margin from my naked indices bull puts.
Corn and wheat popped up overnight crossing $4 and $6 respectively. Soybean is in range. I will continue to adjust underwater positions and lock in profit where I can. Will let the others take time decay over the weekend.
My performance:
Indices were pushing up right after opening. I thought my hypo one was going to play out. It turned out to be a head fade. ES/SPX got pushed down after closing the daily gap above. I closed one of my RUT naked bull put after missed the morning run up by a tick. My bad habit of moving target made me sweat for several hours until a pull back in the early afternoon. It was the same pattern as yesterday. A final sell off happened in the last hour. I wasn't sensitive enough to turn into defensive mode when the sell off was clear in later afternoon. I didn't check some of my pending orders in SPY and RUT bull spreads and got filled right after cash closing. My VIX stop / roll over didn't get filled due to the same price moving habit but my recovery order got filled later. Now I have more VIX orders than I planed. My margins are still tight. It's at $20K in IB account and may not be enough to withstand another shock on Monday.
Grains closed higher across board. I locked in profit for a March 520 bull put and a dried Jan soybean position according to my morning plan. I didn't get chance to rollover my any of my underwater bear calls. I was thinking to let them decay a little more over the weekend. I didn't complete my plan today. I will look for opportunities to reduce my grain positions to increase margins.
Indices futures went down natch lower overnight. They may test lower and return to a nurture area giving the Friday and next week's FOMC uncertainties. Hypo 2 would be a hard break to test 2005-1997 CHVA. I don't have a lot of room to add my positions except preparing for stops. I will release margin from my naked indices bull puts.
Corn and wheat popped up overnight crossing $4 and $6 respectively. Soybean is in range. I will continue to adjust underwater positions and lock in profit where I can. Will let the others take time decay over the weekend.
My performance:
Indices were pushing up right after opening. I thought my hypo one was going to play out. It turned out to be a head fade. ES/SPX got pushed down after closing the daily gap above. I closed one of my RUT naked bull put after missed the morning run up by a tick. My bad habit of moving target made me sweat for several hours until a pull back in the early afternoon. It was the same pattern as yesterday. A final sell off happened in the last hour. I wasn't sensitive enough to turn into defensive mode when the sell off was clear in later afternoon. I didn't check some of my pending orders in SPY and RUT bull spreads and got filled right after cash closing. My VIX stop / roll over didn't get filled due to the same price moving habit but my recovery order got filled later. Now I have more VIX orders than I planed. My margins are still tight. It's at $20K in IB account and may not be enough to withstand another shock on Monday.
Grains closed higher across board. I locked in profit for a March 520 bull put and a dried Jan soybean position according to my morning plan. I didn't get chance to rollover my any of my underwater bear calls. I was thinking to let them decay a little more over the weekend. I didn't complete my plan today. I will look for opportunities to reduce my grain positions to increase margins.
Thursday, December 11, 2014
A Reverse of Reversal 12-11-14
I missed my morning plan again after attending FT's Trader Bite. I think my habit of sleeping late may have caused my lack of discipline and concentration.
Indices opened in drive up mode. ES and NQ tested yesterday's high by lunch. Then the rollover started by early afternoon. I thought they were just come back to retest the "crime scene" of break out area which happens often although not in the same day. ES pushed to overnight low right after cash close. Today's 24 point price action is like a reverse of reversal. It wiped out the entire gains. It remind me the pattern of last November's sell off. We may have a more volatile market near term with the turmoil of cruse oil price and more bad news from Greece any time. I will close out 1-2 bull puts tomorrow to release some margin before the weekend. I was not patient enough today. I entered VIX leg ups even the sell off appeared strong. Both VIX 25 bear calls at 35c and 45c got crushed. The high was 60c. I didn't have a 2nd hypo for break down below. I only thought one hypo of retest and bounce.
Grains didn't have follow though sells but pushed up. Corn retested $4.0 mark and wheat pushed up to $6. Soybean held up well too. My bias should be in up side near term now. I locked in a wheat Mar 520 profit and closed a corn Jan bull put. There are still a lot of challenges in grains.
Indices opened in drive up mode. ES and NQ tested yesterday's high by lunch. Then the rollover started by early afternoon. I thought they were just come back to retest the "crime scene" of break out area which happens often although not in the same day. ES pushed to overnight low right after cash close. Today's 24 point price action is like a reverse of reversal. It wiped out the entire gains. It remind me the pattern of last November's sell off. We may have a more volatile market near term with the turmoil of cruse oil price and more bad news from Greece any time. I will close out 1-2 bull puts tomorrow to release some margin before the weekend. I was not patient enough today. I entered VIX leg ups even the sell off appeared strong. Both VIX 25 bear calls at 35c and 45c got crushed. The high was 60c. I didn't have a 2nd hypo for break down below. I only thought one hypo of retest and bounce.
Grains didn't have follow though sells but pushed up. Corn retested $4.0 mark and wheat pushed up to $6. Soybean held up well too. My bias should be in up side near term now. I locked in a wheat Mar 520 profit and closed a corn Jan bull put. There are still a lot of challenges in grains.
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Range Bound to Break Down 12-10-14
My plan:
ES pulled back to the mid of yesterday. It looks like filling in the CLVA continues. RUT and NQ are the same. I will try to place some credit spreads in SPY and RUT. Get my rest of VIX bear calls filled and buy a small position of long calls for year end.
Grains are waiting for the WASDE report. Will try to lock in wheat profit and wait for the report.
My executions:
It was a busy day in equity market. ES/SPY broken down in afternoon. I was under the expectation of retesting the CHVN, then moving up. I had 2 set of SPY naked bull puts for week 3 and 4 filled based on this scenario. However, my hypo two of last night played out and my SPY naked puts got crushed. RUT had an interesting day as well. It dropped 2.2% after 1.8% gain yesterday. It is still showing an inside day on daily bars. I had 3 RUT bull spreads filled today. One was a key in error which I selected Jan 15 instead of Dec 31. I need to get out of it quick. VIX sky rocked today. I had bear call of 22@25C left from yesterday filled. I also legged up another set to 23@35c. Get to watch for my risk of VIX even though they are above Nov's high. I also entered a ES Dec 26, 1920 bull put based on my early bias which was crushed too. I have a ES 1950 bull put for year end is at stop point now. I need to exit it out tomorrow unless we have a good turn around overnight. I can enter a lower trade to recover most of the lose. Actually the pull back was clearly showing in seasonal charts but I didn't look at it closely over the weekend. Otherwise I could have prevent some of the losses in my directional options from last week.
Grains didn't have any strong reactions to today's WASDE report as previous months. Wheat and soybean were somewhat bearish. Corn had lower ending stock and recovered most of losses as of this writing at night. Lowered dollar may have helped some too. I locked in a March soybean profit and rolled over a Dec 580 wheat bear call to March. Nothing else was done. Will watch for any follow through in pricing tomorrow.
ES pulled back to the mid of yesterday. It looks like filling in the CLVA continues. RUT and NQ are the same. I will try to place some credit spreads in SPY and RUT. Get my rest of VIX bear calls filled and buy a small position of long calls for year end.
Grains are waiting for the WASDE report. Will try to lock in wheat profit and wait for the report.
My executions:
It was a busy day in equity market. ES/SPY broken down in afternoon. I was under the expectation of retesting the CHVN, then moving up. I had 2 set of SPY naked bull puts for week 3 and 4 filled based on this scenario. However, my hypo two of last night played out and my SPY naked puts got crushed. RUT had an interesting day as well. It dropped 2.2% after 1.8% gain yesterday. It is still showing an inside day on daily bars. I had 3 RUT bull spreads filled today. One was a key in error which I selected Jan 15 instead of Dec 31. I need to get out of it quick. VIX sky rocked today. I had bear call of 22@25C left from yesterday filled. I also legged up another set to 23@35c. Get to watch for my risk of VIX even though they are above Nov's high. I also entered a ES Dec 26, 1920 bull put based on my early bias which was crushed too. I have a ES 1950 bull put for year end is at stop point now. I need to exit it out tomorrow unless we have a good turn around overnight. I can enter a lower trade to recover most of the lose. Actually the pull back was clearly showing in seasonal charts but I didn't look at it closely over the weekend. Otherwise I could have prevent some of the losses in my directional options from last week.
Grains didn't have any strong reactions to today's WASDE report as previous months. Wheat and soybean were somewhat bearish. Corn had lower ending stock and recovered most of losses as of this writing at night. Lowered dollar may have helped some too. I locked in a March soybean profit and rolled over a Dec 580 wheat bear call to March. Nothing else was done. Will watch for any follow through in pricing tomorrow.
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
A Sell Off in Dec? 12-9-14
My plan:
ES hit my support level of 2038 overnight, creating a 15 point gap down. Next support levels are 2033-30 and 2020-16. Resistances are 2048-51 and 2055-57 gap fill. I will exit my direction calls on a good pop, sell credit spreads and SPY naked puts on further weakness but far OTM. Watch out S-5 positions' risk levels. I can close this week's position to free margin for another entry.
Grains are in range bound overnight. I will continue to adjust my positions to reduce risks and free margin. I may not buy any options until the USDA Report tomorrow.
My executions:
ES appeared in terrible shape after open. It tested my next support level of 2033, in that CHVN. I ddin't know that Greek government early election talk was the fear factor. However, the downward move is measured. ES/SPX were filling in the CLVA of 2033-2061. They closed around yesterday's closing like nothing happened. It appears the pull back is short lived baring any surprising news. I sold 6 naked SPY 191, 12-31 in the morning push down and 5 VIX bear call 22 with 7 days left. The premiums are smaller but I take what I can get within my rules. I tried couple of SPX credit spreads but no fill. RUT had an opposite run which is unusual. It closed up 21 points, 1.79%. Is small cap going to lead the next push like it was leading lower way before the others? I am going to hold my last SPY call of this week a bite longer to see if there is going to be a pop. I may consider to get in another set of calls for next week. Hypothesis 2 is that there may be another leg down with Greece uncertainty.
Grains were mixed. Corn and soybean seemed to holding up with the seasonal and wheat went down to the balance area low. According to my plan, I bought a corn Dec call of $4.00 and sold a Jan $4.4 to help out partial cost. I couldn't come up a good setup to buy calls due to the high cost restrictions. Wheat came to the lower edge of its current balance area. Seasonal is pointing down too. I tried to lock in some profit positions but no fill. I will try to close or roll some profits before the report tomorrow.
ES hit my support level of 2038 overnight, creating a 15 point gap down. Next support levels are 2033-30 and 2020-16. Resistances are 2048-51 and 2055-57 gap fill. I will exit my direction calls on a good pop, sell credit spreads and SPY naked puts on further weakness but far OTM. Watch out S-5 positions' risk levels. I can close this week's position to free margin for another entry.
Grains are in range bound overnight. I will continue to adjust my positions to reduce risks and free margin. I may not buy any options until the USDA Report tomorrow.
My executions:
ES appeared in terrible shape after open. It tested my next support level of 2033, in that CHVN. I ddin't know that Greek government early election talk was the fear factor. However, the downward move is measured. ES/SPX were filling in the CLVA of 2033-2061. They closed around yesterday's closing like nothing happened. It appears the pull back is short lived baring any surprising news. I sold 6 naked SPY 191, 12-31 in the morning push down and 5 VIX bear call 22 with 7 days left. The premiums are smaller but I take what I can get within my rules. I tried couple of SPX credit spreads but no fill. RUT had an opposite run which is unusual. It closed up 21 points, 1.79%. Is small cap going to lead the next push like it was leading lower way before the others? I am going to hold my last SPY call of this week a bite longer to see if there is going to be a pop. I may consider to get in another set of calls for next week. Hypothesis 2 is that there may be another leg down with Greece uncertainty.
Grains were mixed. Corn and soybean seemed to holding up with the seasonal and wheat went down to the balance area low. According to my plan, I bought a corn Dec call of $4.00 and sold a Jan $4.4 to help out partial cost. I couldn't come up a good setup to buy calls due to the high cost restrictions. Wheat came to the lower edge of its current balance area. Seasonal is pointing down too. I tried to lock in some profit positions but no fill. I will try to close or roll some profits before the report tomorrow.
Monday, December 8, 2014
Monday - New Pattern? 12-8-14
My plan:
Indices drifted down overnight after European open. ES breached Friday's low but still above CHVN of 2067. Bulls may be tired when Friday's big job report didn't produce a break out. ES has supports at 2064 and 2060, resistances of 2074, 2078 or a new high of 2080. I will sell ES/SPY naked or spreads puts on any break down in short term. No bear calls unless a clear break down with pull back.
Grains held Friday's ranges overnight. I finished seasonal review last night. It looks grains basically followed their seasonal tendencies. For Dec, corn and soybean are in up trending, wheat is expecting a sharp down turn. I will try to buy couple corn and soybean calls to protect my bear calls, roll out underwater positions and lock in profit. I may use 1:1 rollover or 1:2 risk reversal to keep the number of cons in balance.
My executions:
I didn't expect a break down in ES/SPX below last Thursday's low. ES tested S3, 2054 which I didn't even list it. It appears the pull back is not over yet from the way it closed and evening session. ES is in a CLVA until 2038 in its current range. I sold another month end of 1920 near 2STD and 90% POM. I tried to sell SPY in Etrade but no fills. Tomorrow may be a better timing any way. I was short of time to even look at RUT consider it was been patience. My directional SPY, IWM come to my worst scenario. It appears I will end up losing both sides except the last IWM call was filled in this morning's push up. It was luck to the best.
Corn tried to challenge the $4 mark this morning, then it turned out to be a head fake. It looks like back in the range waiting for USDA report on Wednesday. Soybean and wheat are holding in range showing a little weakness. I didn't have any calls filled as I planed. I was a little concerned about the upcoming report but the seasonal trends are clear. I will try it tomorrow again. I had one corn bear call rollover and a 880 soybean bull put profit exit.
Indices drifted down overnight after European open. ES breached Friday's low but still above CHVN of 2067. Bulls may be tired when Friday's big job report didn't produce a break out. ES has supports at 2064 and 2060, resistances of 2074, 2078 or a new high of 2080. I will sell ES/SPY naked or spreads puts on any break down in short term. No bear calls unless a clear break down with pull back.
Grains held Friday's ranges overnight. I finished seasonal review last night. It looks grains basically followed their seasonal tendencies. For Dec, corn and soybean are in up trending, wheat is expecting a sharp down turn. I will try to buy couple corn and soybean calls to protect my bear calls, roll out underwater positions and lock in profit. I may use 1:1 rollover or 1:2 risk reversal to keep the number of cons in balance.
My executions:
I didn't expect a break down in ES/SPX below last Thursday's low. ES tested S3, 2054 which I didn't even list it. It appears the pull back is not over yet from the way it closed and evening session. ES is in a CLVA until 2038 in its current range. I sold another month end of 1920 near 2STD and 90% POM. I tried to sell SPY in Etrade but no fills. Tomorrow may be a better timing any way. I was short of time to even look at RUT consider it was been patience. My directional SPY, IWM come to my worst scenario. It appears I will end up losing both sides except the last IWM call was filled in this morning's push up. It was luck to the best.
Corn tried to challenge the $4 mark this morning, then it turned out to be a head fake. It looks like back in the range waiting for USDA report on Wednesday. Soybean and wheat are holding in range showing a little weakness. I didn't have any calls filled as I planed. I was a little concerned about the upcoming report but the seasonal trends are clear. I will try it tomorrow again. I had one corn bear call rollover and a 880 soybean bull put profit exit.
Saturday, December 6, 2014
Weekly Review 12-6-14
It was a lite week in terms of P/L. There is only one ES in S5 expired worthless.
I have been very busy spending most of my time on grain market and trying to shift my focus back to indices. I followed my last week's plan regarding to hold or reduce grain positions this week. The market has been in range bound slightly bullish. I have rolled up bear call positions and locked in profit in positions above 30-60% returns. But the losses are still bigger than gains. Most of my directional options have been chopped except one wheat calls returned 300%.
Due to my margin limit and bid/ask spread in SPX and RUT I started to try SPY and IWM. The approach may work better giving the same rules of engagement.
No any entry errors happened this week. Keep up the good work.
Next week's tasks:
1. Continue to manage my grain positions. The goal is to reduce risk and margin.
2. Spend more time and energy on indices option selling. Clarify my rules of engagement between Karen's longer term trades and my shorter term trades.
3. Enforce hard stops and roll over in 2-3X losses. Risk management is still my weakest link.
I have been very busy spending most of my time on grain market and trying to shift my focus back to indices. I followed my last week's plan regarding to hold or reduce grain positions this week. The market has been in range bound slightly bullish. I have rolled up bear call positions and locked in profit in positions above 30-60% returns. But the losses are still bigger than gains. Most of my directional options have been chopped except one wheat calls returned 300%.
Due to my margin limit and bid/ask spread in SPX and RUT I started to try SPY and IWM. The approach may work better giving the same rules of engagement.
No any entry errors happened this week. Keep up the good work.
Next week's tasks:
1. Continue to manage my grain positions. The goal is to reduce risk and margin.
2. Spend more time and energy on indices option selling. Clarify my rules of engagement between Karen's longer term trades and my shorter term trades.
3. Enforce hard stops and roll over in 2-3X losses. Risk management is still my weakest link.
Friday, December 5, 2014
Jobs 12-5-14
My plan:
The much anticipated job report came out much better at 321k vs. 231k. ES, NQ initial reaction were within yesterday's range. I am surprised there was no big break out to ES 2080ish, the first target of BB. I will try to scale my SPY, IWM call options and exit my related puts on a pull back. I will try to sell some naked es and spy as well. I don't have enough positions in indices and should scale more from grains.
Grains are in ranges except corn pushed out yesterday's high and retesting its week high. Let's see if it will break the daily double top and continue to run on its bull flag. My tasks are manage risk and reduce positions to release margins.
My executions:
Indices pretty much stayed in ranges and chopped around. I exited my puts in SPY and IWM with 50% losses and a partial IWM call. I have 1-2 days left next week to see if indices could break out to new highs. There is a possibility that I could loss on both side if market goes down or continue to chop around. I should stick to my options selling program in most of cases.
Grains continued to move up following yesterday's direction. Corn made its weekly high and closed at last week's high. It may challenge $4 next week. Soybean came back to retest the break down area. It appears to have more room to go up. Wheat was up less than 1% and hasn't break its HS formation. USDA DEC report may provide more volatility next week. I need to update my seasonal studies this weekend. I have been slapped around on both side and my losses continues. I have held back on adding positions and all of my rollovers are 1:1 now. Except I added one soybean May 1280 bear calls as my first bear calls for May. It's too far out and not in my plan. I may exit out when I can get b/e or a small profit. It doesn't cost much margin now.
The much anticipated job report came out much better at 321k vs. 231k. ES, NQ initial reaction were within yesterday's range. I am surprised there was no big break out to ES 2080ish, the first target of BB. I will try to scale my SPY, IWM call options and exit my related puts on a pull back. I will try to sell some naked es and spy as well. I don't have enough positions in indices and should scale more from grains.
Grains are in ranges except corn pushed out yesterday's high and retesting its week high. Let's see if it will break the daily double top and continue to run on its bull flag. My tasks are manage risk and reduce positions to release margins.
My executions:
Indices pretty much stayed in ranges and chopped around. I exited my puts in SPY and IWM with 50% losses and a partial IWM call. I have 1-2 days left next week to see if indices could break out to new highs. There is a possibility that I could loss on both side if market goes down or continue to chop around. I should stick to my options selling program in most of cases.
Grains continued to move up following yesterday's direction. Corn made its weekly high and closed at last week's high. It may challenge $4 next week. Soybean came back to retest the break down area. It appears to have more room to go up. Wheat was up less than 1% and hasn't break its HS formation. USDA DEC report may provide more volatility next week. I need to update my seasonal studies this weekend. I have been slapped around on both side and my losses continues. I have held back on adding positions and all of my rollovers are 1:1 now. Except I added one soybean May 1280 bear calls as my first bear calls for May. It's too far out and not in my plan. I may exit out when I can get b/e or a small profit. It doesn't cost much margin now.
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Testing and Waiting 12-4-14
I totally forgot to write my plan this morning even I got up early. Habit, habit!
Indices market reacted to ECB announcement in both side. ES/SPX broke high and low of yesterday and closed as nothing happened. Now all eyes are on the US employment number tomorrow morning. I exited my SPX bear call of 2100 at b/e to prevent a blow up in case of a stellar job number. Traders are looking at 2100 as a target of year end. This positions was a mistake to begin with. It costed my $950 after a roll up. My bull puts made it up with a little extra so far. I bought a 2120 call also. Originally I was thinking to make it a credit spread to limit my risk. However my 2100 b/e exit order was filled during the morning down thrust. It wasn't well planned in advance. I will exit the call if we get a upward push or take stop at 50%.
I also roll up my RUT 1080 bull put of Dec monthly to 1100 to lock in $250 profit. I also sold 2 SPY naked put to experiment Karen's setup with small margin. It has much better spreads but lower premium as for % of ROM. It could solve my problem of margin size and b/a spread for now.
Grains were up with good export data. Corn and soybean had much better than expected export sales and both were up sharply. Corn performed the best and up 1.8%. Corn's bull flag in weekly looks intact and it may break to the upside. I was forced to roll my Dec 380 bear call again at 4X loss. I don't have enough position for the upside since my bias was to the down side. I locked in a wheat's call profit at 300%, a rare win for my direction plays. I don't have much to show for soybeans since my both sides are under performing. The downside risk is still at large.
Indices market reacted to ECB announcement in both side. ES/SPX broke high and low of yesterday and closed as nothing happened. Now all eyes are on the US employment number tomorrow morning. I exited my SPX bear call of 2100 at b/e to prevent a blow up in case of a stellar job number. Traders are looking at 2100 as a target of year end. This positions was a mistake to begin with. It costed my $950 after a roll up. My bull puts made it up with a little extra so far. I bought a 2120 call also. Originally I was thinking to make it a credit spread to limit my risk. However my 2100 b/e exit order was filled during the morning down thrust. It wasn't well planned in advance. I will exit the call if we get a upward push or take stop at 50%.
I also roll up my RUT 1080 bull put of Dec monthly to 1100 to lock in $250 profit. I also sold 2 SPY naked put to experiment Karen's setup with small margin. It has much better spreads but lower premium as for % of ROM. It could solve my problem of margin size and b/a spread for now.
Grains were up with good export data. Corn and soybean had much better than expected export sales and both were up sharply. Corn performed the best and up 1.8%. Corn's bull flag in weekly looks intact and it may break to the upside. I was forced to roll my Dec 380 bear call again at 4X loss. I don't have enough position for the upside since my bias was to the down side. I locked in a wheat's call profit at 300%, a rare win for my direction plays. I don't have much to show for soybeans since my both sides are under performing. The downside risk is still at large.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
A Short Lived Pull Back 12-3-14
My plan:
Indices have held up yesterday's closing in a small range overnight. It looks like trades may break to upside again leaving us a short lived pull back. ES 2068-2070 is the key area to tell the directions for ES/SPX. I will exit my puts and buy some calls for SPY, RUT if I don't see a break down soon. We could see some choppiness today waiting for employment report tomorrow and Friday.
Grains moved down overnight. Corn and soybean are clear back in downtrend on daily charts. Wheat pulled back half way of last week's break out. I will continue to monitor and adjust my positions in grains. Reducing my size should be a risk control consideration.
My play:
Indices played out to the upside of my hypotheses. I placed call orders for SPY and IWM once the directions were clear after the 1st hr. Then I started planning my puts exit. There were only one each of SPY/IWM calls filled and one SPY put exited. I still have the bad habit of moving my entry prices around. So I missed couple fills. I will watch to see weather the long or short side would play out with employment news in next two days.
Grains looked so bearish this morning after falling overnight. Corn and soybean staged a come back right before closing to erase the day's losses. Wheat stayed low in a small range in its CHVA. It may fill in 585-570 CLVA if it breaks down from 588 or retest high above $6. I took call stops of my corn and soybean. I also locked profit March wheat 540 and lower it to 515. Let's see what export report will bring tomorrow.
Indices have held up yesterday's closing in a small range overnight. It looks like trades may break to upside again leaving us a short lived pull back. ES 2068-2070 is the key area to tell the directions for ES/SPX. I will exit my puts and buy some calls for SPY, RUT if I don't see a break down soon. We could see some choppiness today waiting for employment report tomorrow and Friday.
Grains moved down overnight. Corn and soybean are clear back in downtrend on daily charts. Wheat pulled back half way of last week's break out. I will continue to monitor and adjust my positions in grains. Reducing my size should be a risk control consideration.
My play:
Indices played out to the upside of my hypotheses. I placed call orders for SPY and IWM once the directions were clear after the 1st hr. Then I started planning my puts exit. There were only one each of SPY/IWM calls filled and one SPY put exited. I still have the bad habit of moving my entry prices around. So I missed couple fills. I will watch to see weather the long or short side would play out with employment news in next two days.
Grains looked so bearish this morning after falling overnight. Corn and soybean staged a come back right before closing to erase the day's losses. Wheat stayed low in a small range in its CHVA. It may fill in 585-570 CLVA if it breaks down from 588 or retest high above $6. I took call stops of my corn and soybean. I also locked profit March wheat 540 and lower it to 515. Let's see what export report will bring tomorrow.
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Waiting for Direction 12-2-14
My plan:
Indices stayed in yesterday's range overnight. 10 yr treasury dived lower. Could it indicate a limited downside for indices? I will watch to see if there are opportunities to sell bull puts spreads if market break lower or buy small amount of ETF puts if we get a pull back to mid of the range.
Grains had similar situation as indices. My tasks are: 1. monitor and reduce risks, 2. lock in profit and reduce margin. CME increased margin requirement and my available margin is at $25K now.
My plan:
Indices have been pushing up all day long after open. ES/SPX closed Monday's gap and held well at closing. RUT made back to BB/M. One of my setups is to short on pull back to mid let it roll over. I am not sure if either SPX or RUT will play out because of the uptrend and seasonality. I bought SPY and RUT puts of next week to see if my set up would play out. I will be nib and be ready to scale out quick. I exited my only ES bull put in IB to release some margin.
Corn and soybean broke down. I got some relief on the call side and booked some profits. Wheat is still holding up well but two attempts of break up didn't work out. Many people don't believe it had gone this high. I will wait for a confirmation or either direction while book any profit I can get or roll over my underwater positions. I need to roll out of this endless circle. Stay heavy on one side or totally withdraw and stay on sidelines.
Indices stayed in yesterday's range overnight. 10 yr treasury dived lower. Could it indicate a limited downside for indices? I will watch to see if there are opportunities to sell bull puts spreads if market break lower or buy small amount of ETF puts if we get a pull back to mid of the range.
Grains had similar situation as indices. My tasks are: 1. monitor and reduce risks, 2. lock in profit and reduce margin. CME increased margin requirement and my available margin is at $25K now.
My plan:
Indices have been pushing up all day long after open. ES/SPX closed Monday's gap and held well at closing. RUT made back to BB/M. One of my setups is to short on pull back to mid let it roll over. I am not sure if either SPX or RUT will play out because of the uptrend and seasonality. I bought SPY and RUT puts of next week to see if my set up would play out. I will be nib and be ready to scale out quick. I exited my only ES bull put in IB to release some margin.
Corn and soybean broke down. I got some relief on the call side and booked some profits. Wheat is still holding up well but two attempts of break up didn't work out. Many people don't believe it had gone this high. I will wait for a confirmation or either direction while book any profit I can get or roll over my underwater positions. I need to roll out of this endless circle. Stay heavy on one side or totally withdraw and stay on sidelines.
Monday, December 1, 2014
Monthly Review 11-28-14
My draw down continues this month with many grain positions realized but took before Nov. At realized -$28K it's the biggest monthly losses so far. In trading the biggest loss is in the future. Risk management is the key. I wiped out my entire gains of last 1.5 yr plus $10K more. The biggest lesson is in risk management.
1. Position sizing. I kept increasing my sizes as I roll over my losing positions in 1:2 ratio in order to maintain the same dollar amount in new positions. A more sensible way to rollover would be to minus the collected premiums in order to get a further OTM location, a trade off for safety. Another approach would be take 1:1 ratio taking partial loss and make up the difference from the opposite direction. It will keep the position size and margin about the same.
2. Hard stop loss. This is still my weakest link. I review it almost every week and pointing it out as my deadliest weakness and career block. I still failed to take appropriate stop in two of my ES bear calls this month. The final damage was 6X 18X out of $100 gain.
Improvements of the month:
1. Had more patience waiting for the market to develop, then pick my place of trading in indices.
2. Learned more about offsetting cost using spread and risk reversal in grains.
Plan for Dec.
1. Take hard stops.
2. Reduce my positions in grains and stay with seasonal bias.
3. Spend more time in indices trading
4. Step aside instead of fighting the trend, especially in grain market.
1. Position sizing. I kept increasing my sizes as I roll over my losing positions in 1:2 ratio in order to maintain the same dollar amount in new positions. A more sensible way to rollover would be to minus the collected premiums in order to get a further OTM location, a trade off for safety. Another approach would be take 1:1 ratio taking partial loss and make up the difference from the opposite direction. It will keep the position size and margin about the same.
2. Hard stop loss. This is still my weakest link. I review it almost every week and pointing it out as my deadliest weakness and career block. I still failed to take appropriate stop in two of my ES bear calls this month. The final damage was 6X 18X out of $100 gain.
Improvements of the month:
1. Had more patience waiting for the market to develop, then pick my place of trading in indices.
2. Learned more about offsetting cost using spread and risk reversal in grains.
Plan for Dec.
1. Take hard stops.
2. Reduce my positions in grains and stay with seasonal bias.
3. Spend more time in indices trading
4. Step aside instead of fighting the trend, especially in grain market.
1st Pull Back in 3 WKs? 12-1-14
My plan:
Indices opened lower on Sunday night following Black Friday's pushing down. It appears that market has reached its preliminary target. ES crossed its Fib 23% of 2065 and tested up to 2075. After continuous 6 up weeks trades may take a break before the final push of year end. I will use this bull back to sell some bull puts credit spreads if it plays out. Keep in mind a real pull back may last 2-3 days. I don't have to rush into any trade.
Grains are mixed from Sunday's open. Soybean and corn went down further but stayed in their CHVA. Wheat held up its gains from Friday's break out. My plan for grains are continuing to adjust my positions and reduce risk.
My play:
ES/SPX couldn't close their gaps and ended near session low after several attempts of pushing up. It's hard to say if we will have a follow through or pull back to close the gap tomorrow. The uptrend is well intact. I didn't get any fill for my ES & RUT bull put credit spreads even though RUT was down 1.6%. There is not much fear in the market. I tried to sell VIX 23 calls too. My margin is tight for me to sell naked indices at this point.
Wheat has a strong, 28 points, 4.6% up day with cold weather and Russian supply concerns. All of my bear calls are underwater now. I have only one calls in direct hedge. All of my bull puts had a good relief but not enough to offset the losses in bear calls. Corn recovered its overnight losses and ended up 2C. It looks not ready to give up yet and still holding a bull flag in weekly. Soybean is bear flagged from last Friday's sell off. It appears forming a HS in daily. I am thinking to buy a put to hedge my bull puts for USDA Dec report protection. I still need to aggressively reduce my grain positions to raise my margin.
Indices opened lower on Sunday night following Black Friday's pushing down. It appears that market has reached its preliminary target. ES crossed its Fib 23% of 2065 and tested up to 2075. After continuous 6 up weeks trades may take a break before the final push of year end. I will use this bull back to sell some bull puts credit spreads if it plays out. Keep in mind a real pull back may last 2-3 days. I don't have to rush into any trade.
Grains are mixed from Sunday's open. Soybean and corn went down further but stayed in their CHVA. Wheat held up its gains from Friday's break out. My plan for grains are continuing to adjust my positions and reduce risk.
My play:
ES/SPX couldn't close their gaps and ended near session low after several attempts of pushing up. It's hard to say if we will have a follow through or pull back to close the gap tomorrow. The uptrend is well intact. I didn't get any fill for my ES & RUT bull put credit spreads even though RUT was down 1.6%. There is not much fear in the market. I tried to sell VIX 23 calls too. My margin is tight for me to sell naked indices at this point.
Wheat has a strong, 28 points, 4.6% up day with cold weather and Russian supply concerns. All of my bear calls are underwater now. I have only one calls in direct hedge. All of my bull puts had a good relief but not enough to offset the losses in bear calls. Corn recovered its overnight losses and ended up 2C. It looks not ready to give up yet and still holding a bull flag in weekly. Soybean is bear flagged from last Friday's sell off. It appears forming a HS in daily. I am thinking to buy a put to hedge my bull puts for USDA Dec report protection. I still need to aggressively reduce my grain positions to raise my margin.
Friday, November 28, 2014
Black Friday 11-28-14
Futures markets open for a half day on this holiday. I didn't expect much of anything happening. So I didn't write a plan except I had ideas of sell bull puts in indices and watch for grains prices to see if any new developments. Well, I was wrong again. Expect unexpected although it doesn't happen all the time.
Indices futures started a mini sell off 2 hr before closing. RUT ended down 1.5%. SPX pulled back some at closing but it breached last two days' lows. We may see a pull back next week. I had a Dec 18 1950 bull puts filled unexpectedly at $315 today. I had a 1955 filled yesterday which I didn't know about. The platform didn't show it nor popped a notice yesterday. I need to take one out next week with b/o or better if I can. I ended up sold a RUT Dec 24 bull put naked and rolled up SPX bull put to 1830 to lock in more profit.
Grains had wild move today. I think it was Dec contracts' first notice related. Trades had to move out their Dec positions before get assigned. Soybean popped and then dropped 3%. Corn also tested both side of yesterday's range but closed only down 2c. It's more of a doji bar. Wheat broke out to the upside reaching its Fib 23% target from the last up swing on daily or hit Fib 62 RT from below on weekly. It closed up 2.8% after retest yesterday's range. The breakout may be US cold weather related. News from other major wheat producing countries were bearish. I will keep a close eyes on it next week. I roll up couple wheat bear calls from Jan to Feb since they were at 3X losses and locked in profit for a bull put Mar 550. I also closed puts in corn and soybean as my stop loss+reversal orders got hit. I need to make a habit of checking my pending orders each morning.
Thursday, November 27, 2014
Thanksgiving 11-27-14
It's Thanksgiving day in the US. Only indices futures market open for a half day as the markets that I am trading. ES made a new high of 2075.25 overnight then pulled back to yesterday's range. I don't expect much of anything happening unless a big news breaks out. I am trying to sell a Dec 19, 1955 put in S-5.
Grains are closed today. I am taking time to read some articles about the markets.
My play:
No trade was done today.
Spent time to match my Dec soybean trade records. It shown my current loss is -10K. I sold some ITM losses at the lowest points. The plan was to added them back but no quantitative specs. Looking back I was very slow to realize the trend change.
Grains are closed today. I am taking time to read some articles about the markets.
My play:
No trade was done today.
Spent time to match my Dec soybean trade records. It shown my current loss is -10K. I sold some ITM losses at the lowest points. The plan was to added them back but no quantitative specs. Looking back I was very slow to realize the trend change.
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
The Day Before Thanksgiving 11-26-14
My plan:
Indices futures held the ranges of yesterday. I don't expect a large range or a new high in the day before Thanksgiving. I will try to sell puts if trades let the markets pull back some.
Grains moved up somewhat overnight. Soybean and wheat broke last swing highs. I need to prepare for longs. Corn is challenging the swing high on daily. I will watch it for directions.
My play:
Indices had no pull back. ES tested overnight low earlier then pushed to a new high of 2074.5 after cash close. I am glad I exited my 2075 bear call yesterday according to my plan. It's only less than 30 points to 2100. I want to consider to exit my ES, SPX bear calls in next few days. I tried to sell bull puts in S-5 but missed it by 5c. My order for roll up and locking in SPX 1870 to 1920 didn't get fill. I will try it again. Seasonally ES/SPX has another 1-1.5% to go upside.
Corn and wheat held their overnight gains well. It didn't make sense for wheat to break out with poor export data and high price already comparing with other major producers. I did several rollovers and profit locking. Corn is the one giving me headaches. There are not much premiums for far OTM nor the opposite of my positions. I am still hesitate to go long with force with concerns of the 2nd shoe to drop.
Indices futures held the ranges of yesterday. I don't expect a large range or a new high in the day before Thanksgiving. I will try to sell puts if trades let the markets pull back some.
Grains moved up somewhat overnight. Soybean and wheat broke last swing highs. I need to prepare for longs. Corn is challenging the swing high on daily. I will watch it for directions.
My play:
Indices had no pull back. ES tested overnight low earlier then pushed to a new high of 2074.5 after cash close. I am glad I exited my 2075 bear call yesterday according to my plan. It's only less than 30 points to 2100. I want to consider to exit my ES, SPX bear calls in next few days. I tried to sell bull puts in S-5 but missed it by 5c. My order for roll up and locking in SPX 1870 to 1920 didn't get fill. I will try it again. Seasonally ES/SPX has another 1-1.5% to go upside.
Corn and wheat held their overnight gains well. It didn't make sense for wheat to break out with poor export data and high price already comparing with other major producers. I did several rollovers and profit locking. Corn is the one giving me headaches. There are not much premiums for far OTM nor the opposite of my positions. I am still hesitate to go long with force with concerns of the 2nd shoe to drop.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Good Time Continues 11-25-14
My plan:
ES moved to the upside after European open and broke yesterday's high on 3.9% GDP VS 3.3 expected. The all time high of 2072 set on last Friday is expected to be broken. My ES exit order for 2075 didn't get filled overnight. I need to get out no later than tomorrow. I won't sell any bear calls unless there is a sign of exhaustion. I will try to sell puts on any weakness.
Grains are supported by export data. Soybean export continued on strong numbers. It broke the neck line of IHS. Watch for the upside in soybean which is pulling with soy meal. Wheat recovered from weak export data. Corn is weak and forming a HS on daily. I will continue to adjust my positions.
My play:
Indices held well as thanksgiving approaching. I closed my this week's 2075 bear call B/E which is much better than losing money. I also sold a Dec 1950 bull put in QII. I got frustrated for no fill of credit spreads in this low volatility environment. SPX/RUT have large spread in bid/ask in far OTM and time listings.
Grains popped up every where with good export data especially in soybean complex. I rolled over or close a position in each product to lock in some profits or stop loss measures. It ended up as a B/E day.
ES moved to the upside after European open and broke yesterday's high on 3.9% GDP VS 3.3 expected. The all time high of 2072 set on last Friday is expected to be broken. My ES exit order for 2075 didn't get filled overnight. I need to get out no later than tomorrow. I won't sell any bear calls unless there is a sign of exhaustion. I will try to sell puts on any weakness.
Grains are supported by export data. Soybean export continued on strong numbers. It broke the neck line of IHS. Watch for the upside in soybean which is pulling with soy meal. Wheat recovered from weak export data. Corn is weak and forming a HS on daily. I will continue to adjust my positions.
My play:
Indices held well as thanksgiving approaching. I closed my this week's 2075 bear call B/E which is much better than losing money. I also sold a Dec 1950 bull put in QII. I got frustrated for no fill of credit spreads in this low volatility environment. SPX/RUT have large spread in bid/ask in far OTM and time listings.
Grains popped up every where with good export data especially in soybean complex. I rolled over or close a position in each product to lock in some profits or stop loss measures. It ended up as a B/E day.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Monday But No Trend Change? 11-24-14
My plan:
Indices opened in range on Sunday. They are holding well the uptrend. The seasonality is up in the holiday season. I will be careful on any bear calls and only look at least 2% above. I will look at SPY, QQQ for small size and spread to fill on any weakness. I may have to take my 2075 ES bear call out since it is not within a daily range. My next up target is 2080 and 2100 on daily and weekly BB charts.
Grains are in range since opened on Sunday night. All the three appears forming a IHS after the option expiration week. I will use the consolidation period to adjust my risky options and lock in some profit for the good ones.
My play:
ES/SPX had a less than 6 points, small range day. I didn't have any trade for indices other than tried to exit my ES 2075 bear call according to my plan. But it didn't get fill. It's been so hard to trade indices lately.
Grains closed down other than unchanged soybean but no major breaks. I rolled over bear calls in corn and wheat following my plan. The bigger question is that if the other shoe is going to drop? I need to study the charts more and come up with two hypotheses. My current positions of bulls and bears would likely to cause one side to lose.
Indices opened in range on Sunday. They are holding well the uptrend. The seasonality is up in the holiday season. I will be careful on any bear calls and only look at least 2% above. I will look at SPY, QQQ for small size and spread to fill on any weakness. I may have to take my 2075 ES bear call out since it is not within a daily range. My next up target is 2080 and 2100 on daily and weekly BB charts.
Grains are in range since opened on Sunday night. All the three appears forming a IHS after the option expiration week. I will use the consolidation period to adjust my risky options and lock in some profit for the good ones.
My play:
ES/SPX had a less than 6 points, small range day. I didn't have any trade for indices other than tried to exit my ES 2075 bear call according to my plan. But it didn't get fill. It's been so hard to trade indices lately.
Grains closed down other than unchanged soybean but no major breaks. I rolled over bear calls in corn and wheat following my plan. The bigger question is that if the other shoe is going to drop? I need to study the charts more and come up with two hypotheses. My current positions of bulls and bears would likely to cause one side to lose.
Saturday, November 22, 2014
Weekly Review 11-22-11
Monthly options expired this week. The draw down continues!
My biggest mistake of the week was held and hoped for my ES 2015 bear call to the end. I throw away my rules and discipline only thinking about give me a down day and I would get out. There was no down day for the week but a continued up thrust. I ended up lossing $1900, 18X of loss for this position. As I indicated in last weeks review and plan I have to overcome the psychological barrier of taking stops at 2-3X of loss. Without this firm rule and discipline I won't make it in this business. For the week this rule didn't stick to me. I must enforce it firmly until it becomes my 2nd natural. I am tired of lose big and win small. 2-3X loss is manageable.
My majority losses are from grains. I kept rolling over my positions. I exited many of the big losers before Oct USDA report to avoid the big drop that many experts were expecting. The record high production ended the low of this year before the Oct report. The long term seasonal charts played out exactly as they had happened before. I exited out these positions based on risk control although the timing was at the maximum pain point. What I didn't have were the specific quantified plan on getting back in and the flexibility of recognizing the trend change. While waiting for the other shoe to drop in Nov USDA report I didn't have both side hypotheses. I was still heavy in short side. Most of my directional put ended up losing money.
My plan for next week:
1. Continue to write out my daily plan in the morning;
2. Take stops at 2-3X regardless what is my outlook of the market direction;
3. Reduce my exposures in grains since I don't have a clear view and strategy of this sector. I will come back later or make my recovery from other markets. I need to ditch my anger or other emotions from this sector. I have to be able to admit that I lost this battle but I will preserve my capital in order to win the war.
4. Revisit indices ETF weekly options. The big index options have large spreads and are often hard to get a fill unless the market has a big movement. I will use these ETFs in my personal and IRA account for a short time frame and smaller gains. It's better than nothing with good risk management.
My biggest mistake of the week was held and hoped for my ES 2015 bear call to the end. I throw away my rules and discipline only thinking about give me a down day and I would get out. There was no down day for the week but a continued up thrust. I ended up lossing $1900, 18X of loss for this position. As I indicated in last weeks review and plan I have to overcome the psychological barrier of taking stops at 2-3X of loss. Without this firm rule and discipline I won't make it in this business. For the week this rule didn't stick to me. I must enforce it firmly until it becomes my 2nd natural. I am tired of lose big and win small. 2-3X loss is manageable.
My majority losses are from grains. I kept rolling over my positions. I exited many of the big losers before Oct USDA report to avoid the big drop that many experts were expecting. The record high production ended the low of this year before the Oct report. The long term seasonal charts played out exactly as they had happened before. I exited out these positions based on risk control although the timing was at the maximum pain point. What I didn't have were the specific quantified plan on getting back in and the flexibility of recognizing the trend change. While waiting for the other shoe to drop in Nov USDA report I didn't have both side hypotheses. I was still heavy in short side. Most of my directional put ended up losing money.
My plan for next week:
1. Continue to write out my daily plan in the morning;
2. Take stops at 2-3X regardless what is my outlook of the market direction;
3. Reduce my exposures in grains since I don't have a clear view and strategy of this sector. I will come back later or make my recovery from other markets. I need to ditch my anger or other emotions from this sector. I have to be able to admit that I lost this battle but I will preserve my capital in order to win the war.
4. Revisit indices ETF weekly options. The big index options have large spreads and are often hard to get a fill unless the market has a big movement. I will use these ETFs in my personal and IRA account for a short time frame and smaller gains. It's better than nothing with good risk management.
Friday, November 21, 2014
Markets Teach You in Hard Way 11-21-14
My plan:
ES gaped up 18 point on ECB talks overnight. It was a continuation of yesterday's close. My 2015 looks so low down there and deep in the water. Market has a way to teach undisciplined participants hard lessons. I am sitting at a possible 8X loss over my original stop limit. I have been hold and hope while drowning. I must exit this position before 3:30 as I expect an unwinding options toward later today. The risk is that it may go higher since the market is so energized. I may sell a put or call to recover partially.
Grains have held most of yesterday's range. They may have more upside to go. My goal is to rearrange my positions to reduce risk.
My play:
My hypotheses one played out in ES today. ES/SPX started falling after a brief high this morning. I was able to exit my 2015 only one point higher than today's low. The damage is still severer compare $1900 vs 1500 would have been yesterday and 1100 last week. I still don't have what it takes to take stops and win this game. It's up to me to overcome this barrier. I had only one 1940, Dec 12 ES bull put got filled. We may see some put back next week if today's high is really a head fake. The rejection of high looked decisive but being an options expiration day maybe misleading.
Grains had similar price pattern as Indices on this expiration day. Other than soybean against the pack closed at high of the day, corn and wheat gave up most of gains today. I tried two new strategies: Risk reversal and debit spread. I have been learning debit spread for a week but haven't quit figured out the exit part. Risk reversal was discovered while buying directional options with consideration of reducing cost. It should be used carefully since it could cost loss in both side if a major change against me.
ES gaped up 18 point on ECB talks overnight. It was a continuation of yesterday's close. My 2015 looks so low down there and deep in the water. Market has a way to teach undisciplined participants hard lessons. I am sitting at a possible 8X loss over my original stop limit. I have been hold and hope while drowning. I must exit this position before 3:30 as I expect an unwinding options toward later today. The risk is that it may go higher since the market is so energized. I may sell a put or call to recover partially.
Grains have held most of yesterday's range. They may have more upside to go. My goal is to rearrange my positions to reduce risk.
My play:
My hypotheses one played out in ES today. ES/SPX started falling after a brief high this morning. I was able to exit my 2015 only one point higher than today's low. The damage is still severer compare $1900 vs 1500 would have been yesterday and 1100 last week. I still don't have what it takes to take stops and win this game. It's up to me to overcome this barrier. I had only one 1940, Dec 12 ES bull put got filled. We may see some put back next week if today's high is really a head fake. The rejection of high looked decisive but being an options expiration day maybe misleading.
Grains had similar price pattern as Indices on this expiration day. Other than soybean against the pack closed at high of the day, corn and wheat gave up most of gains today. I tried two new strategies: Risk reversal and debit spread. I have been learning debit spread for a week but haven't quit figured out the exit part. Risk reversal was discovered while buying directional options with consideration of reducing cost. It should be used carefully since it could cost loss in both side if a major change against me.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Same Patterns? 11-20-14
My plan:
ES pulled back below yesterday's low overnight. Is it the relief I have been waiting for or just the same pattern of lower overnight and pop back during the day season? It looks like later during the first hour of RTH. ES/SPX closed a 10 point gap and challenging overnight high now. There were some good numbers in housing but unemployment claims was up 5K. Philly Fed manufacturing index was at 40.8 vs expected 18.9, Unreal? Well, it looks like my hope of a relief is gone. I have to take the 2015 call back with a big loss. I may try to sell another call to later of just get a put to recover partially.
Grains popped up cross the board. I will continue to rollover and lock in profit where I can. First, I need to search to see if any news behind the pops or just technically based.
My play:
The pull back didn't happen despite the lower low set overnight. The same pattern of down at night and up on the day played out again. I didn't get any fill except a error for RUT 1100 put spread for Dec 11. I forgot to key in the "-" symbol so it turned into a market order at $68 instead of $95. I must exit the position soon. I closed two ES puts to release margin for new positions but ES had no pull back today at all. I didn't get fill of my 2015 call which failed my plan again. I have to take it out tomorrow regardless the cost.
Grains pulled back with corn being strongest of 3%. I didn't see any news to cause it. Get to watch to see if it's a trend change. I rolled up 2 Feb 1180 soybean bear calls to 1170 to lock in 60% of profit. Also tried a new technique of reversing a losing position in my corn call to recover part of loss. This technique should be only used in far out of money and not too far from expiration.
ES pulled back below yesterday's low overnight. Is it the relief I have been waiting for or just the same pattern of lower overnight and pop back during the day season? It looks like later during the first hour of RTH. ES/SPX closed a 10 point gap and challenging overnight high now. There were some good numbers in housing but unemployment claims was up 5K. Philly Fed manufacturing index was at 40.8 vs expected 18.9, Unreal? Well, it looks like my hope of a relief is gone. I have to take the 2015 call back with a big loss. I may try to sell another call to later of just get a put to recover partially.
Grains popped up cross the board. I will continue to rollover and lock in profit where I can. First, I need to search to see if any news behind the pops or just technically based.
My play:
The pull back didn't happen despite the lower low set overnight. The same pattern of down at night and up on the day played out again. I didn't get any fill except a error for RUT 1100 put spread for Dec 11. I forgot to key in the "-" symbol so it turned into a market order at $68 instead of $95. I must exit the position soon. I closed two ES puts to release margin for new positions but ES had no pull back today at all. I didn't get fill of my 2015 call which failed my plan again. I have to take it out tomorrow regardless the cost.
Grains pulled back with corn being strongest of 3%. I didn't see any news to cause it. Get to watch to see if it's a trend change. I rolled up 2 Feb 1180 soybean bear calls to 1170 to lock in 60% of profit. Also tried a new technique of reversing a losing position in my corn call to recover part of loss. This technique should be only used in far out of money and not too far from expiration.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Waiting for Fed Minutes 11-19-14
I was later again today. I woke up couple time overnight which doesn't happen often. Is it a sign of aging?
I decided not to trade indices today before Fed minutes release at 2 pm. So I spent most of my time on grains this morning. ES/SPX pushed down after open to clear the deck It stopped right at yesterday's low and lifted back to mid before the release. The minutes didn't have any surprises. Indices ended with no change maintaining the uptrend posture. RUT is the only one down almost one percent. However it alone didn't stir up much volatility. None of my naked bull puts or credit spread got filled. I just have to wait until the right time comes. I need to close the 2015 bear call in S-5 tomorrow and try to recover partial from it.
Grains broke down today. Corn had -2% and both soybean and wheat were down more than 1%. I close couple wheat and corn positions. I tried to lock in some profit in soybean bear calls but didn't get fill. I am still not clear how to deal with my corn bear calls. There are not a lot premium to roll out plus my positions are still deep in the water. I will study it again tomorrow.
I decided not to trade indices today before Fed minutes release at 2 pm. So I spent most of my time on grains this morning. ES/SPX pushed down after open to clear the deck It stopped right at yesterday's low and lifted back to mid before the release. The minutes didn't have any surprises. Indices ended with no change maintaining the uptrend posture. RUT is the only one down almost one percent. However it alone didn't stir up much volatility. None of my naked bull puts or credit spread got filled. I just have to wait until the right time comes. I need to close the 2015 bear call in S-5 tomorrow and try to recover partial from it.
Grains broke down today. Corn had -2% and both soybean and wheat were down more than 1%. I close couple wheat and corn positions. I tried to lock in some profit in soybean bear calls but didn't get fill. I am still not clear how to deal with my corn bear calls. There are not a lot premium to roll out plus my positions are still deep in the water. I will study it again tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Move Up When It Can't Go Down 11-18-14
My plan:
Indices couldn't go down yesterday indicated their upside potential. SPX touched many's target of 2050 after open this morning. ES made a new high of 2048. Bollinger Bands on daily show there are more room to the upside to 2060 area but MACD is falling. RUT is holding its bull flag recovered yesterday's loss. I will try to sell SPX, RUT bear calls spreads on a surge with smaller size. They may be at higher end of current balance range.
Grains opened lower in small range. Corn is retesting yesterday's low and the low of current CLVA. Could it go down from 375 to 365 of CHVA? I will watch for it and get out some bear calls if it happens. Wheat is forming a HS in daily. I will get some relief if it plays out. In the meantime I will roll over some bear calls up or to the bull puts. Soybean is retesting yesterday's break out area. It looks like a IHS to the upside or holding the low of last Friday. I will play the same strategy of wheat.
My play:
ES/SPX shoot up to reach the psychological target of 2050 in the first 2 hrs of open. Another new high was set despite there was a 7-8 points pull back before closing. I tried several of bear call spreads in SPX and RUT but still no fill. I had a Dec 12, 2115 ES bear call filled in S-5. The 2015 is deeply ITM now. I have to exit it in the next couple days. RUT still couldn't get cross the Sept top. I will keep trying base on my rules of engagement patiently.
Grains continued to consolidate to the down side in small ranges. I tried to roll over some of my soybean from bear calls to bull puts for the first time. My assumption is that soybean may have set its season low of $9 on strong demand. Corn and wheat still hold up on weekly despite daily formation of HS. I closed my last Nov wheat position with a small profit. I still don't have a clear picture and plan for corn. After the roll over of soybeans I have a little more breath room for my margin.
Indices couldn't go down yesterday indicated their upside potential. SPX touched many's target of 2050 after open this morning. ES made a new high of 2048. Bollinger Bands on daily show there are more room to the upside to 2060 area but MACD is falling. RUT is holding its bull flag recovered yesterday's loss. I will try to sell SPX, RUT bear calls spreads on a surge with smaller size. They may be at higher end of current balance range.
Grains opened lower in small range. Corn is retesting yesterday's low and the low of current CLVA. Could it go down from 375 to 365 of CHVA? I will watch for it and get out some bear calls if it happens. Wheat is forming a HS in daily. I will get some relief if it plays out. In the meantime I will roll over some bear calls up or to the bull puts. Soybean is retesting yesterday's break out area. It looks like a IHS to the upside or holding the low of last Friday. I will play the same strategy of wheat.
My play:
ES/SPX shoot up to reach the psychological target of 2050 in the first 2 hrs of open. Another new high was set despite there was a 7-8 points pull back before closing. I tried several of bear call spreads in SPX and RUT but still no fill. I had a Dec 12, 2115 ES bear call filled in S-5. The 2015 is deeply ITM now. I have to exit it in the next couple days. RUT still couldn't get cross the Sept top. I will keep trying base on my rules of engagement patiently.
Grains continued to consolidate to the down side in small ranges. I tried to roll over some of my soybean from bear calls to bull puts for the first time. My assumption is that soybean may have set its season low of $9 on strong demand. Corn and wheat still hold up on weekly despite daily formation of HS. I closed my last Nov wheat position with a small profit. I still don't have a clear picture and plan for corn. After the roll over of soybeans I have a little more breath room for my margin.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Late Is Better Than Never 11-17-14
My plan:
I am late again on this Monday morning. I have had a habit of watching shows online at late night.
Futures dropped after Sunday's open possibly on Japan's growth contraction and China's bad loan numbers. ES breached last week's double bottom of 2027. I got up late this morning. ES already pushed back into last Friday's range since European session. ES closed the gap of overnight and ticked through O/N high. Bulls are still in control so far. RUT is also bull flagging on daily after pinched through Sept's high. I will try to sell bull put spread in SPX and RUT if we get futher weakness and looking at possible bear call spread if price come to good levels. But it looks like a choppy session around the last CHVA so far.
Grains pulled back overnight but nothing decisive so far. I need to focus on any contracts I have left for this month expiration.
My play:
ES/SPX pushed back to last Friday's range after open. Sellers made several attempt to push it out of the range but buyers responded swiftly. Buyers are still in control till the end. ES is not ready to go down yet based on today's action. It may have more upside before going down. The earning season provided a positive sentiment and this Friday is monthly option expiration day. I tried to sell RUT's credit spread and naked RUT of Karen's setup since RUT was down over 05% most of the day. I didn't get any fill. RUT closed near low of the day. I may have a chance to get a better fill if it continues to pull back in next couple of days.
Grains continued to consolidate. Corn recovered part of overnight loss. The weekly pole is still holding but today's export data showed weakness in corn sales. Soybean popped back to last Friday's range on strong export numbers. Both weekly and daily bars have shown strong rejection from upside. Wheat came back to retested last Friday's break out point. It held so far. I had two corn puts stop loss filled. Tried to roll couple of bear calls in wheat and soybean but no fill. I will try it more aggressively tomorrow.
I felt strong frustration building when I don't have any fills in indices. ES/SPX have been in small trading ranges for 5 days now.
I am late again on this Monday morning. I have had a habit of watching shows online at late night.
Futures dropped after Sunday's open possibly on Japan's growth contraction and China's bad loan numbers. ES breached last week's double bottom of 2027. I got up late this morning. ES already pushed back into last Friday's range since European session. ES closed the gap of overnight and ticked through O/N high. Bulls are still in control so far. RUT is also bull flagging on daily after pinched through Sept's high. I will try to sell bull put spread in SPX and RUT if we get futher weakness and looking at possible bear call spread if price come to good levels. But it looks like a choppy session around the last CHVA so far.
Grains pulled back overnight but nothing decisive so far. I need to focus on any contracts I have left for this month expiration.
My play:
ES/SPX pushed back to last Friday's range after open. Sellers made several attempt to push it out of the range but buyers responded swiftly. Buyers are still in control till the end. ES is not ready to go down yet based on today's action. It may have more upside before going down. The earning season provided a positive sentiment and this Friday is monthly option expiration day. I tried to sell RUT's credit spread and naked RUT of Karen's setup since RUT was down over 05% most of the day. I didn't get any fill. RUT closed near low of the day. I may have a chance to get a better fill if it continues to pull back in next couple of days.
Grains continued to consolidate. Corn recovered part of overnight loss. The weekly pole is still holding but today's export data showed weakness in corn sales. Soybean popped back to last Friday's range on strong export numbers. Both weekly and daily bars have shown strong rejection from upside. Wheat came back to retested last Friday's break out point. It held so far. I had two corn puts stop loss filled. Tried to roll couple of bear calls in wheat and soybean but no fill. I will try it more aggressively tomorrow.
I felt strong frustration building when I don't have any fills in indices. ES/SPX have been in small trading ranges for 5 days now.
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Quote of the Day - Linda's Trading Rules
Linda Bradford Raschke produces six figure incomes from her trading, and has had years where she made half a million in income with few losing weeks. She is truly one of the top traders in the country. Here are her trading rules, many traders will find ones to add to their own method to help improve performance.
Linda Bradford Raschke – 50 Time Tested Classic Stock Trading Rules
- Plan your trades. Trade your plan.
- Keep records of your trading results.
- Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
- Don’t take the market home.
- Continually set higher trading goals.
- Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.
- Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.
- Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for studying the markets.
- Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.
- Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.
- Limit your losses – use stops!
- Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!
- Place the stop at the time you make your trade.
- Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.
- Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
- Losses make the trader studious – not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.
- The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.
- Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined set of rules.
- Remember that a bear market will give back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.
- Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.
- You must have a program, you must know your program, and you must follow your program.
- Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.
- Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market.
- The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point.
- The difference between winners and losers isn’t so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.
- In trading as in fencing there are the quick and the dead.
- Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the golden touch do not talk about their success.
- Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.
- Accept failure as a step towards victory.
- Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a profit? Forget it even quicker! Don’t let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work.
- One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity always lies through the open door.
- The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is safe. When he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.
- It’s much easier to put on a trade than to take it off.
- If a market doesn't do what you think it should do, get out.
- Beware of large positions that can control your emotions. Don’t be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.
- Never add to a losing position.
- Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.
- You must believe in yourself and your judgement if you expect to make a living at this game.
- In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be – up or down.
- A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.
- Never volunteer advice and never brag of your winnings.
- Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss.
- Standing aside is a position.
- t is better to be more interested in the market’s reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself.
- If you don’t know who you are, the markets are an expensive place to find out.
- In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
- Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking your profit too soon. Don’t torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you. Chances are it won’t continue long. If it does, console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early reserved gains that you would have otherwise lost.
- When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray – jump!
- Lose your opinion – not your money.
- Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Weekly Review 11-15-14
This week I had only two expired ES positions with a $600 loss. The loss was from my bear calls entered on reversal of the big sell off in Oct. The entry was not clear defined and well planed. I took the loss at 6X instead of my rule of 2-3X. Taking stop at the planed level is still my weakest spot. I have to be able to overcome the psychological barrier in order to stay in this business. Even pros admit it's hard but not impossible to do. I didn't have any indices credit spread filled this week. Indices kept grinding up without any meaningful pull back. My patience has increased a great deal.
I continue to grains' direction wrong. Monday's USDA report didn't cause a sell off as I anticipated. Many of my put positions went underwater again as well as my bear calls. I had to take stops for my puts and roll up my bear calls. I need to reduce my grain exposures further for now. Stop these revenge trading. Accept my losses and wait for my time to come.
According to my last week's plan I initiated search for trading pals by looking at trading sites and posted a message in S-5 chat room. I wasn't very active and no results yet. I will step up my effort next week.
My plan for next week:
1. Continue to reduce my exposures in grains.
2. Clarify my rules of indices trading between my short term options and Karen's setup.
3. Overcome the psychological barriers of taking stops. strengthening my weakest link.
4. Continue to be patience and wait for market come to me instead of chasing it.
I continue to grains' direction wrong. Monday's USDA report didn't cause a sell off as I anticipated. Many of my put positions went underwater again as well as my bear calls. I had to take stops for my puts and roll up my bear calls. I need to reduce my grain exposures further for now. Stop these revenge trading. Accept my losses and wait for my time to come.
According to my last week's plan I initiated search for trading pals by looking at trading sites and posted a message in S-5 chat room. I wasn't very active and no results yet. I will step up my effort next week.
My plan for next week:
1. Continue to reduce my exposures in grains.
2. Clarify my rules of indices trading between my short term options and Karen's setup.
3. Overcome the psychological barriers of taking stops. strengthening my weakest link.
4. Continue to be patience and wait for market come to me instead of chasing it.
Friday, November 14, 2014
A Mixed Friday 11-14-14
My plan:
I am late to write my plan again. I woke up at 7:30 and went back to bed falling sleep until 9:20.
ES held in the mid of yesterday's range between 2032-2038. It looks muted. After open ES breached overnight high for a point then got pushed back to overnight low. It likely to hold and skew up a little since buyers stepped in at overnight low and o/n high was broken earlier. I will try to sell bull put credit spread for a longer time out. and close a bull put of next week to release margin. RUT is below BB/M daily after yesterday's 1% drop. It may lead a pull back or next week.
Grains held in a small range overnight. After open, Dec wheat is challenging yesterday's high, Jan soybean dropped 15 points including o/n. Corn is holding yesterday's range and maintaining its up trend. I have to double check that all of my Dec's bear calls have a plan to be handled. My available margin is at low $30K and need to be increased.
My play:
ES/SPX had another small range choppy day. ES had only 8 points within yesterday's mid. Market is undecided in direction. I didn't have any fill here. I am patiently waiting for market come to me.
Grains are mixed. Wheat shoot up another 1.2% to 560. It made my Dec 560 in the money now. I will have to roll it next week. Corn dropped 1+% which let some of my failed puts stop out. It also release some pressure for my bear calls. Soybean fall hard in the last hour. It registered near 3% for all next 3 contract months. I added 3 of my bull puts back and rolled over a Jan 1080 bear call to Feb 1120. I still have several bear calls underwater. But it's a nice relief for now. Got to watch if it's a bigger force making a trend change. It closed right at the break out point after USDA report. Is it a retest or break down? It will tell by early next week. I need to hold up my entries until it's clear.
I am late to write my plan again. I woke up at 7:30 and went back to bed falling sleep until 9:20.
ES held in the mid of yesterday's range between 2032-2038. It looks muted. After open ES breached overnight high for a point then got pushed back to overnight low. It likely to hold and skew up a little since buyers stepped in at overnight low and o/n high was broken earlier. I will try to sell bull put credit spread for a longer time out. and close a bull put of next week to release margin. RUT is below BB/M daily after yesterday's 1% drop. It may lead a pull back or next week.
Grains held in a small range overnight. After open, Dec wheat is challenging yesterday's high, Jan soybean dropped 15 points including o/n. Corn is holding yesterday's range and maintaining its up trend. I have to double check that all of my Dec's bear calls have a plan to be handled. My available margin is at low $30K and need to be increased.
My play:
ES/SPX had another small range choppy day. ES had only 8 points within yesterday's mid. Market is undecided in direction. I didn't have any fill here. I am patiently waiting for market come to me.
Grains are mixed. Wheat shoot up another 1.2% to 560. It made my Dec 560 in the money now. I will have to roll it next week. Corn dropped 1+% which let some of my failed puts stop out. It also release some pressure for my bear calls. Soybean fall hard in the last hour. It registered near 3% for all next 3 contract months. I added 3 of my bull puts back and rolled over a Jan 1080 bear call to Feb 1120. I still have several bear calls underwater. But it's a nice relief for now. Got to watch if it's a bigger force making a trend change. It closed right at the break out point after USDA report. Is it a retest or break down? It will tell by early next week. I need to hold up my entries until it's clear.
Thursday, November 13, 2014
1st Pull Back 11-13-14
I missed writing my morning plan again. I woke up after 9 today. I guess that I haven't get into a habit of planing my day yet. It takes at least three week to change or form a habit. I need to be more consistent. A morning plan helps me to clear my head and develop a frame work for the day instead of shooting from hip.
ES popped up after Europe open overnight. This morning's US jobless claim report was 8K more than expected. ES tested overnight high, then got sold off all the way to yesterday's low which was my first support. It closed back to the mid of today's range. It basically formed a doji bar. ES had a range of 17 handles for the first time in four days. None of my credit spreads got filled. I am somewhat mixed up between my normal setup and Karen's. I need to further clear define my set ups. I sold one ES 1920 bull put for Dec 4 which I chased from 1910. I was frustrated when my original order of $380 for 1910 didn't get filled because I kept changing my entries. I ended up cancelling it and got a fill of 1920 before closing. I need to be more patient. There is always next day. Volatility should come back soon.
Grains continued their march despite of record high production and higher dollar. Corn and wheat had another 1%, 2% up day respectively. Soybean didn't go up much after a big range of yesterday. Tomorrow we will see what is the export data telling us.
ES popped up after Europe open overnight. This morning's US jobless claim report was 8K more than expected. ES tested overnight high, then got sold off all the way to yesterday's low which was my first support. It closed back to the mid of today's range. It basically formed a doji bar. ES had a range of 17 handles for the first time in four days. None of my credit spreads got filled. I am somewhat mixed up between my normal setup and Karen's. I need to further clear define my set ups. I sold one ES 1920 bull put for Dec 4 which I chased from 1910. I was frustrated when my original order of $380 for 1910 didn't get filled because I kept changing my entries. I ended up cancelling it and got a fill of 1920 before closing. I need to be more patient. There is always next day. Volatility should come back soon.
Grains continued their march despite of record high production and higher dollar. Corn and wheat had another 1%, 2% up day respectively. Soybean didn't go up much after a big range of yesterday. Tomorrow we will see what is the export data telling us.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Everything Marching On 11-12-14
My plan:
Indices futures fall 0.1-0.3% overnight pulling down by European markets. US market opened with some responsive buyers but the gap for ES/SPX have not been closed. ES has resistance at 2033, 2036 to 38, support at 2027 overnight low, 2022 and 2015 of a far reach. I will try to sell ES/SPX bull puts naked and spreads. The upward march continues and be patience.
Grains have been rallying overnight and after open. Wheat is leading with a 3% move, corn at 2% so far and soybean at 1% staying above last week's high of 1060. I don't know what is causing the rally, the pattern is similar to Oct's USDA report. I plan to exit and roll over my bear calls.
My play:
ES/SPX played the same pattern of early selling and later pop. My first support of 2027 was hit in the first hour. I had bull put spreads expecting of further p/b which didn't happen. Instead I rolled up my SPX and RUT bull puts to lock in some profit and collect some more premiums. I also rolled up my SPX 2070 bear calls to 2100 to avoid further loss and get into a higher position for a partial recovery. I will try again to roll up my RUT 1230. Rut cleared its Sept resistance of 1185 and ready to challenge 1200 next.
Grains surged this morning. Wheat had more than 3% upside, Soybean had over 40 handles range only to be sold back to 1050s. Corn held its up trend despite some selling. Most of my bear calls are further underwater now. The losses continue. I roll over a wheat and a soybean bear calls today. There are more to do if the uptrend continues. I also locked in profits for a soybean bull puts. I made another error of closing a bull put thinking it was a short put. I am still stressed.
Indices futures fall 0.1-0.3% overnight pulling down by European markets. US market opened with some responsive buyers but the gap for ES/SPX have not been closed. ES has resistance at 2033, 2036 to 38, support at 2027 overnight low, 2022 and 2015 of a far reach. I will try to sell ES/SPX bull puts naked and spreads. The upward march continues and be patience.
Grains have been rallying overnight and after open. Wheat is leading with a 3% move, corn at 2% so far and soybean at 1% staying above last week's high of 1060. I don't know what is causing the rally, the pattern is similar to Oct's USDA report. I plan to exit and roll over my bear calls.
My play:
ES/SPX played the same pattern of early selling and later pop. My first support of 2027 was hit in the first hour. I had bull put spreads expecting of further p/b which didn't happen. Instead I rolled up my SPX and RUT bull puts to lock in some profit and collect some more premiums. I also rolled up my SPX 2070 bear calls to 2100 to avoid further loss and get into a higher position for a partial recovery. I will try again to roll up my RUT 1230. Rut cleared its Sept resistance of 1185 and ready to challenge 1200 next.
Grains surged this morning. Wheat had more than 3% upside, Soybean had over 40 handles range only to be sold back to 1050s. Corn held its up trend despite some selling. Most of my bear calls are further underwater now. The losses continue. I roll over a wheat and a soybean bear calls today. There are more to do if the uptrend continues. I also locked in profits for a soybean bull puts. I made another error of closing a bull put thinking it was a short put. I am still stressed.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Grains Disappointing 11-11-14
My plan:
ES popped up to 2039 overnight. It pulls back in attempt to close the gap before open. The 2050 target is only about 15 handles away. The bull is relentless. I will try to sell bear call spreads again on a new push up and bell put spreads if we get a pull back in ES/SPX and RUT. Overnight low is at 2032, 2nd support of CLVN at 2029.
Grains held up well overnight. Watch for today's price action to see how the market interprets the WASDE report. So far it looks neutral. We may get into a range bound period again.
My play:
It was another slow day for indices. My support level 1 for ES was hit and bounced. Not enough sellers to push it further. We didn't get a pull back I have hoped for. No orders got filled today. I also tried to roll up my SPX bull put from 1710 to 1850 in order to lock in the majority of profit. I will try it again tomorrow.
Grains popped today led by soy meal and soybean. Soybean broke last week's high and closed above 1060. There was no follow through on selling after yesterday's report. I should refer to seasonal charts more than 2009 charts now. My bear calls of Jan 1060 is deeply underwater now. I made 2 key in errors in grains today. I guess I was distracted and frustrated. I really need to step back and reduce my activities in grains. It appears that the trend in grains is tilted up now.
ES popped up to 2039 overnight. It pulls back in attempt to close the gap before open. The 2050 target is only about 15 handles away. The bull is relentless. I will try to sell bear call spreads again on a new push up and bell put spreads if we get a pull back in ES/SPX and RUT. Overnight low is at 2032, 2nd support of CLVN at 2029.
Grains held up well overnight. Watch for today's price action to see how the market interprets the WASDE report. So far it looks neutral. We may get into a range bound period again.
My play:
It was another slow day for indices. My support level 1 for ES was hit and bounced. Not enough sellers to push it further. We didn't get a pull back I have hoped for. No orders got filled today. I also tried to roll up my SPX bull put from 1710 to 1850 in order to lock in the majority of profit. I will try it again tomorrow.
Grains popped today led by soy meal and soybean. Soybean broke last week's high and closed above 1060. There was no follow through on selling after yesterday's report. I should refer to seasonal charts more than 2009 charts now. My bear calls of Jan 1060 is deeply underwater now. I made 2 key in errors in grains today. I guess I was distracted and frustrated. I really need to step back and reduce my activities in grains. It appears that the trend in grains is tilted up now.
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